据油价网11月24日消息称，美国页岩油产量爆炸式增长的时代已经结束。美国的石油产量正在上升，但速度比2020年石油危机之前要慢得多，也低于几个月前的预期。
页岩油领域的新重点——资本约束、股东回报和债务偿还——加上供应链约束和成本膨胀，拖累了美国石油产量的增长。
今年，美国能源情报署(EIA)和各种分析一直在下调他们对2022年和2023年原油产量的预测。尽管美国能源情报署仍预计明年的产量将创下新的年平均纪录，但自今年年初以来，该机构已大幅下调了预期。
根据11月发布的《短期能源展望》，美国能源情报署预计，到2022年，美国原油平均产量将达到1170万桶/天，到2023年将达到1240万桶/天，这将超过2019年创下的历史新高。
尽管预计明年的产量将达到创纪录水平，但到目前为止，EIA已多次下调了2022年的数据。根据路透社的计算，最新的经济增长预期大幅下调了21%。
在10月预估中，EIA已将2023年平均日产量预估从9月预估的1260万桶下调至1240万桶。
美国政府在10月份表示：“预测中的原油产量下降反映了2022年第四季度的原油价格低于我们此前的预期。”
曹海斌 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
The U.S. Shale Boom Is Officially Over
The days of explosive growth in U.S. shale oil production are over. American oil production is rising, but at a much slower pace than it did before the 2020 crash, and at lower rates than expected a few months ago.
The new priorities of the shale patch – capital discipline and a focus on returns to shareholders and debt repayments – have coupled with supply chain constraints and cost inflation to drag down U.S. oil production growth.
This year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and various analysts have been downgrading their forecasts of crude oil production for 2022 and 2023. Although the EIA still expects output to set a new annual average record next year, it has significantly revised down its projections since the start of this year.
The EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to average 11.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and 12.4 million bpd in 2023, which would surpass the record high set in 2019, per the November Short-Term Energy Outlook.
Despite the expectation of a record output next year, the EIA has downgraded the numbers several times in 2022 so far. The latest cut is a massive 21% reduction in the growth estimate, according to calculations by Reuters.
In the October forecast, the EIA had already downgraded the average production estimate for 2023 to 12.4 million bpd from the September forecast of 12.6 million bpd.
“Lower crude oil production in the forecast reflects lower crude oil prices in 4Q22 than we previously expected,” the administration said in October.
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