据美国钻井网站2022年12月5日报道，惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究公司在12月5日早上发送给美国钻井网站的一份最新报告中披露了其最新的布伦特原油价格预测。
惠誉解决方案在报告中透露，预计今年布伦特原油的平均价格为每桶102美元，2023年为每桶95美元，2024年和2025年为每桶88美元，2026年为每桶85美元。该预测与惠誉解决方案11月初发送给美国钻井网站的油价预测报告中的预测没有变化。
包括在惠誉解决方案最新报告中的彭博共识预测，今年布伦特原油的平均价格为每桶101美元，2023年为每桶96.3美元，2024年为每桶88美元，2025年为每桶85美元，2026年为每桶80.1美元。在惠誉解决方案之前的报告中，彭博共识预测今年布伦特原油价格将达到每桶101美元，2023年将达到每桶98美元，2024年将达到每桶88美元，2025年将达到每桶82美元，2026年达到每桶80.1美元。
惠誉解决方案分析师们在最新报告中称：“11月份对市场来说是充满挑战的一个月，在宏观经济环境恶化和对石油的看跌情绪日益加剧的情况下，布伦特原油价格下跌近10%。”
“受多头平仓和空头大幅增加的推动，有管理的资金头寸大幅转变，给期货市场带来沉重压力。期限结构弱化，导致即期价差变为期货溢价，而前月价格跌至地缘政治冲突以来的最低水平。”惠誉解决方案分析师们补充道。
“油价下跌在很大程度上是投机驱动的，布伦特原油与前线交易互换价格(衡量实物桶相对于纸面桶的溢价)小幅走高，而沙特阿美上调了面向西北欧和地中海地区原油的官方基准售价。尽管如此，在亚洲的引领下，全球石油市场已经出现了根本性放松的迹象……在全球范围内，随着宏观经济恶化，价格正在供应方面的约束和需求前景的疲弱之间左右摇摆。”分析师们继续表示。
在撰写本文时，布伦特原油的交易价格为每桶87.13美元。上个月，布伦特原油价格一度高达每桶98.57美元。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
Fitch Solutions Reveals Latest Oil Price Forecasts
Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has revealed its latest Brent crude oil price forecasts in a new report sent to Rigzone early this morning.
In the report, the group revealed that it sees Brent averaging $102 per barrel this year, $95 per barrel in 2023, $88 per barrel in both 2024 and 2025, and $85 per barrel in 2026. The projections are unchanged from those in Fitch Solutions’ previous oil price forecast report, which was sent to Rigzone at the start of November.
The Bloomberg Consensus, which was included in Fitch Solutions’ latest report and which Fitch Solutions is a contributor to, sees Brent averaging $101 per barrel this year, $96.3 per barrel in 2023, $88 per barrel in 2024, $85 per barrel in 2025, and $80.1 per barrel in 2026. In Fitch Solutions’ previous report, the Bloomberg Consensus saw Brent coming in at $101 per barrel in 2022, $98 per barrel in 2023, $88 per barrel in 2024, $82 per barrel in 2025, and $80.1 per barrel in 2026.
“November was a challenging month for the market, with Brent posting a drop of nearly 10 percent amid a deteriorating macroeconomic environment and increasingly bearish sentiment towards oil,” analysts at Fitch Solutions stated in the latest report.
“Managed money positioning shifted sharply, fueled by both a liquidation of the longs and a steep rise in shorts, putting heavy pressure on the futures market. The term structure weakened, tipping the prompt spread into contango, while front month prices fell to their lowest levels since the war,” the analysts added.
“In large part the decline was speculatively driven, with the dated Brent to frontline swap – a marker of the premium held by physical barrels over paper ones – edging higher, while Saudi Aramco hiked its benchmark official selling prices to the North West Europe and Mediterranean regions. Nevertheless, there have been signs of a fundamental loosening in the global oil market, led by Asia … Globally, prices are being torn between constraints on the supply side and a weakening outlook on demand, as the macroeconomy deteriorates,” the analysts continued.
At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude is trading at $87.13 per barrel. Last month, Brent traded as high as $98.57 per barrel.
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