下周对全球石油市场来说至关重要

一系列事件可能会决定今年12月份和明年初的油价走势

12月4日的欧佩克+会议可能是石油的转折点时刻

欧盟开始实施禁运，为全球石油市场增加了又一层不确定性

据油价网11月29日报道，未来几天将是全球石油市场几周来最关键的几天，因为多个事件和因素可能同时决定今年年底及以后的原油价格趋势。不确定性很高，这将引发原油价格的进一步波动。

最近的油价暴跌，布伦特原油价格在一周内暴跌10%，加剧了人们对欧佩克+成员国可能在12月4日(周日)开会时考虑再次减产的猜测。 次日，也就是12月5日，欧盟禁令和相关的七国集团-欧盟原油价格上限将开始实施，具体的上限价格还有待商定和宣布。 

有这么多的不确定性，油价就像跷跷板一样，随着每一个谣言或报道而上下波动。 下周和之后的几周可能会出现更多类似的情况，原油价格可能会出现波动，取决于欧佩克+会议、欧盟禁令和价格上限及对此的反应。

欧佩克+将做什么?

油价的剧烈下跌始于11月21日，此前《华尔街日报》援引欧佩克代表的话报道称，鉴于欧盟对海运原油进口的禁令，欧佩克成员国已非正式讨论了是否需要在市场上增加原油供应。 欧佩克最大产油国沙特阿拉伯和另一个有影响力的成员国阿拉伯联合酋长国立即否认了这一报道。

阿联酋能源部长苏海尔·马兹鲁伊11月21日表示：“阿联酋否认正在与其他欧佩克+成员国进行任何讨论，以改变截至2023年底的上次减产协议。”

“我们仍然致力于欧佩克+的目标，以平衡石油市场，并将支持实现这一目标的任何决定”，马兹鲁伊补充说。 

一周后，截至11月29日，越来越多的猜测称，欧佩克+可能会在12月4日召开的会议上考虑减产，原因是经济放缓导致石油需求前景低于预期。  

考虑到油价在本周早些时候跌至去年12月以来的最低水平，欧佩克+可能确实会决定捍卫80美元的原油价格下限，但要预测禁运将如何影响贸易流动和价格将是一项艰巨的任务。

不过，有关降息的猜测越来越多。11月29日早些时候，油价上涨了2%，因为市场参与者认为可能会有新的降息，在油价最近几天的暴跌之后，市场参与者可能会逢低买进。

彭博新闻社周一调查的多数交易商和分析师预计，欧佩克+将在11月开始每天削减200万桶原油的基础上，进一步削减其整体产量目标。  

此外，石油期货市场的结构显示出全球石油需求低迷和禁运前供应充足的迹象。现货需求走弱，中东原油现货溢价大幅下跌，可能促使欧佩克+在12月4日宣布新一轮减产。 

以沙特阿拉伯为首的欧佩克产油国联盟经常否认它们是在捍卫某个油价，但它们总是说，它们关注的是市场基本面。 这些天，现货市场显示出疲软的迹象，甚至在短期内出现供应过剩的情况。

欧佩克第二大产油国伊拉克本周末暗示，欧佩克+12月4日会议将重点讨论当前的市场状况和平衡。

法国兴业银行大宗商品研究与策略全球主管迈克尔·黑格对《华尔街日报》表示：“所有这些因素对石油市场都非常重要，它们可以极大地推动价格从一个方向转向另一个方向。”

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Next Week Will Be Critical For Oil Markets

·   A number of events could determine the course of oil prices in December and early next year.

·   The OPEC+ meeting on December 4 could be a watershed moment for oil.

·   The beginning of the EU embargo on seaborne crude oil imports adds another layer of uncertainty in oil markets.

The next few days will be one of the most crucial for the oil market in weeks as several events and factors at the same time could determine the trend in prices by the end of this year and beyond.  While the OPEC+ meeting on December 4 and the beginning of the EU embargo onseaborne crude oil imports on the next day are likely to shape the course of the prices. Uncertainty is high, which would stoke further volatility in prices. 

The recent price rout, with Brent plunging by 10% in one week, intensified speculation that OPEC+ members could consider another production cut when they meet on Sunday, December 4. On the following day, December 5, the EU ban on imports of crude oil and the associated G7-EU price cap begins, with the exact price of the cap yet to be agreed on and announced. 

With so many uncertainties, oil prices are seesawing and jumping up or down on every rumor or report. The next week and the ones after that will likely see more of the same and prices could swing either way depending on the OPEC+ meeting, the EU ban and price cap on oil and the reaction to it, which, so far, is singlehandedly dragging down oil prices due to fears of weak demand. 

What Will OPEC+ Do?

A violent move down in prices began on November 21 after The Wall Street Journal reported, citing OPEC delegates, that the members of the cartel had informally discussed whether there would be a need for more oil on the market in view of the EU embargo on crude oil imports. The report was immediately denied by OPEC’s top producer Saudi Arabia and another influential member of the cartel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE). 

“United Arab Emirates denied that it is engaging in any discussion with other OPEC+ members to change the last agreement, which is valid until the end of 2023,” its Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on November 21.

“We remain committed to OPEC+ aim to balance the oil market and will support any decision to achieve that goal,” the minister added. 

A week later, as of November 29, speculation is mounting that OPEC+ could consider a cut at its December 4 meeting due to gloomier-than-expected oil demand outlook. 

Considering that oil prices slumped to the lowest level since December 2021 earlier this week, OPEC+ could indeed decide to defend an $80 floor under prices, but it will have a difficult task in predicting how the embargo on crude will impact trade flows and prices. 

Still, speculation about a cut is gathering momentum. Early on Tuesday, oil prices rose by 2% as market participants weighed a possible new cut and were possibly buying the dip after the rout in recent days. 

Most traders and analysts polled by Bloomberg on Monday expect further OPEC+ cuts to its headline production target, on top of the 2 million barrels per day (bpd) reduction which began this month. 

Moreover, the structure of the oil futures market is showing signs of sluggish global oil demand and sufficient supply just ahead of the embargo. Weakening physical demand and plunging spot premiums for Middle Eastern crude could prompt OPEC+ to announce a fresh cut on Sunday. 

The alliance of OPEC and non-OPEC producers led by regularly denies it’s defending a certain oil price, but it always says that it looks at the market fundamentals. And these days, the physical market is showing signs of weakness and even an oversupply in the short term, considering the contango in both WTI and Brent front-month to second-month futures. 

Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, signaled this weekend that the OPEC+ meeting would focus on the current market conditions and balances.  

“All of these things are so significant to the oil markets that they could whip prices from one direction to the other very significantly,” Michael Haigh, Global Head of Commodities Research & Strategy Societe Generale, told The Wall Street Journal.