据油价网12月7日消息称，美国新墨西哥州本月的原油产量将超过墨西哥。这是渣打银行大宗商品分析师在油价网获得的一份新报告中预测的结果，新墨西哥州9月份的石油日产量仅比墨西哥少7.4万桶。
新墨西哥州的产量激增主要集中在Lea和Eddy两个区域，这两个地区目前雇用了美国16%的活跃石油钻井平台。“新墨西哥州石油产量的上升是我们不担心美国已过峰值的原因之一；我们预计原油产量将在2023年6月达到历史新高。”渣打银行在报告中表示。
专家预测，美国原油产量将在2023年6月达到历史最高水平，并指出，美国石油液体总产量（包括生物燃料和天然气液体）在疫情期间暴跌后已经完全恢复。
美国9月份的油液总产量达到1950.2万桶/天，比此前的历史最高水平(2020年1月)高出26.5万桶/天。强劲的基数效应(由于2021年9月的飓风活动)加速了9月份原油同比增长至135万桶/天，总油液同比增长至191.9万桶/天。渣打银行表示，年度增长数字将更加温和，并预测2022年美国原油供应的年率增长将达到66.3万桶/天，总液态油供应的年率增长将达到119.1万桶/天。
美国能源情报署(EIA)最近发生了大转变，将明年的石油产量预测上调至1234万桶/天，打破2019年创下的1231万桶/天的纪录。上个月，EIA在其短期能源展望(STEO)中，将2023年的产量展望下调了2.1万桶/天，至1231万桶/天，将2023年的产量增长下调了12.1万桶/天，至48.7万桶/天。
曹海斌 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
New Mexico Will Overtake Mexico’s Crude Oil Output This Month
New Mexico is set to overtake Mexico’s crude oil production in the current month. That’s what commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have projected in a new report obtained by Oilprice.com, with New Mexico’s production in September just 74,000 barrels per day less than Mexico’s.
“The surge in New Mexico’s output is centered on two counties, Lea and Eddy, where 16 percent of active U.S. oil rigs are currently employed. Rising New Mexico output is one reason why we do not share concerns that the U.S. is past its peak; we expect crude oil output to reach a new all-time high in June 2023,” StanChart says in the report.
The experts have forecast that U.S. crude oil output will hit an all-time high in June 2023, noting that total U.S. oil liquids output (including biofuels and natural gas liquids, NGLs) has already fully recovered after crashing during the pandemic.
Total US oil liquids output in September clocked in at 19.502mb/d, surpassing the previous all-time high (January 2020) by 265kb/d. A strong base effect (due to hurricane activity in September 2021) accelerated September y/y growth to 1.35mb/d for crude oil and 1.919mb/d for total oil liquids. StanChart says the annual growth numbers will be more modest, and has forecast y/y growth in U.S. supply in 2022 to come in at 663kb/d for crude oil and 1.191mb/d for total oil liquids.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently did an about-face, raising its forecast for oil production next year to reach 12.34M bbl/day next year, breaking the record 12.31M bbl/day set in 2019. Last month, in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA revised its 2023 production outlook lower by 21kb/d to 12.31mb/d and 2023 growth lower by 121kb/d to 487kb/d.
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