2023年影响石油和天然气行业的三大趋势

据美国钻井网站2022年12月27日报道，过去的一年是石油和天然气行业的丰收年，油价上涨至十年来的高点。《投资新闻》(Investing News)近日发布了一份未来一年值得留心的记事清单。

疫情封锁后的需求复苏与对制裁造成的供应中断相结合，推动西得克萨斯中质原油和布伦特原油在2022年上半年升至每桶120美元。下半年原油价格开始走低，这两种原油的价格在年底均将保持在年初的水平。

与此同时，由于地缘政治冲突给全球市场和经济注入了不确定性，欧洲的天然气供应面临障碍。截至8月份，用于家庭供暖的燃料价格已达到9.71美元/百万英热单位的14年来的高点。

FocusEconomics小组成员马修·坎宁安说：“今年油价的大部分波动是由地缘政治冲突引起的——到3月初，油价飙升了30%左右——以及后来西方国家及其盟友宣布制裁。由于涉及北约的战争不太可能大幅升级，而且大多数重大制裁措施已经宣布，战争不太可能导致价格像2022年那样大幅飙升或暴跌。

在高通胀和利率上升的背景下，全球经济前景恶化，能源价格走低。11月份，原油价格跌至每桶90美元以下，此后一直保持在这一水平。

Fulp地质学家米奇·富尔普说：“这基本上是2022年的最低点。”“这在很大程度上与全球封锁减少了需求有关，而高油价也减少了美国的需求。”

摩根大通经济和政策研究主管布鲁斯·卡斯曼写道：“由于冬季将加剧疫情问题和欧洲的天然气危机，全球增长前景仍然低迷，但我们认为全球经济不会在2023年初陷入衰退。供应链和大宗商品价格冲击的减弱，正在缓解金融状况的拖累。”

值得注意的是，2022年的高通胀和严格的货币政策使全球GDP增长几乎减半，从2021年的6%降至3.2%。预计到2023年，这一数字将萎缩至2.7%。是自2001年以来最疲弱的增长时期。 

石油和天然气供应问题将持续存在

世界一直指望石油输出国组织(欧佩克)提高原油产量。

11月份，欧佩克原油日产量减少了31万桶。今年的第11个月也看到了欧佩克未能完成每天181万桶的预期配额。另一方面，进入欧洲的液化天然气进口激增，推动这种取暖燃料的价格降至5.28美元，为今年3月以来的最低点。

对于石油来说，供应仍然是一个问题。各国不仅需要确保稳定的石油供应以保持经济运行，而且美国等国还需要补充今年早些时候动用的战略石油储备。

2022年，美国从战略石油储备中释放了1.8亿桶原油，收入40亿美元。目前，美国战略石油储备为3.7862亿桶，低于一年前的5.9892亿桶。

Fulp说：“他们没有为任何石油和天然气企业提供资金，因此企业无法筹集到资金，产量也持平。”“自从我们从疫情流行中恢复以来，美国的产量一年半以来基本上一直持平，而且没有上升。”

根据Fulp地质学家的说法，如果美国能找到更有效的国际运输方式，它就有机会获得液化天然气。

石油和天然气公司预计将表现良好

尽管机构投资者已经远离石油和天然气，但油气行业在2022年仍获得了巨大利润。今年的强劲表现使惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings)给予油气行业稳定展望评级。

报告指出：“2023年油气行业的表现将与2022年大体一致，并明显强于周期中期。”“我们预计明年石油和天然气的平均价格将有所缓和，尤其是由于经济放缓，但由于产能大国和欧佩克+的谨慎立场，石油和天然气供应减少，碳氢化合物市场将继续紧张。”

油气行业监管机构预计，75%的石油和天然气公司在分红后的自由现金流为正。

高级总监Dmitry Marinchenko在一份报告中表示：“尽管一些国家引入了暴利税，但全球石油和天然气公司仍将继续公布高收益。通货膨胀会产生影响，但大多数油气公司在低油价期间都大幅降低了成本，这将有助于他们的现金流。 ”

穆迪对未来一年持乐观态度，认为亚洲需求增长将成为价格的催化剂。

根据惠誉的说法，如果欧佩克+保持谨慎，备用产能可能会受到影响，为价格增加利好因素。但更大规模、更长期的能源转型可能导致需求放缓和价格疲软。

2023年石油和天然气价格预计将出现波动

FocusEconomic小组成员认为，受到最近削减产量配额的限制，2023年欧佩克的原油产量预计将基本停滞不前。由于更严厉的制裁，世界第三大产油国原油产量将下降，而美国的原油产量将增长，尽管由于页岩生产商最近钻井活动疲软，增长速度有限。

因此，2023年的原油价格预计将出现一些波动，整体平均价格将比2022年低7%左右。此外，不确定性将使油价保持在过去十年的最高水平，维持在每桶90美元的水平。

李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站

原文如下：

Top Trends To Affect Oil and Gas In 2023

The past year was a banner year for the oil and gas sector as prices rallied to decade highs. Investing News published a list of things to look out for in the coming year.

A resurgence in demand following pandemic lockdowns converged with supply disruptions caused by sanctions , driving West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude to $120 per barrel during the first half of the year. Values began to trend lower in H2, leaving both crude types on course to end the year in the same price territory as they started.

Meanwhile, European natural gas supply faced hurdles as the war infused global markets and economies with uncertainty. By August, prices for the fuel used to heat homes had reached a 14 year high of $9.71 MMBtu.

Investing News quoted FocusEconomics claiming the war severely disrupted energy supply，which last year accounted for more than 10 percent of world crude supply and 40 percent of Europe’s natural gas imports.

“Most of the volatility seen in oil prices this year was caused by the announcement of the war— with prices spiking around 30 percent by early March — and the later announcement of sanctions by western countries and their allies. With a major escalation of the war involving NATO unlikely, and most significant sanctions already announced, the war is less likely to cause prices to spike or plummet as sharply as in 2022,” FocusEconomics panelist Matthew Cunningham said.

Amid high inflation and rising interest rates, the global economic outlook has worsened and pushed energy prices lower. Prices for crude fell below $90 in November and have remained at that level since.

“It's basically at a year-to-date low,” Mercenary Geologist Mickey Fulp said. “A lot of that has to do with lockdowns decreasing demand, and high gas prices have decreased demand in the US.”

“With the winter set to aggravate COVID problems and Europe’s natural gas crisis, the global growth outlook remains depressed, but we do not see the global economy at imminent risk of sliding into recession in early 2023. The financial conditions drag is being cushioned by a fading of supply chain and commodity price shocks,” wrote Bruce Kasman, head of economic and policy research at JPMorgan.

It is worth noting that 2022’s high inflation and strict monetary policy have shrunk global GDP growth by almost half, from 6 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent. That number is forecast to contract to 2.7 percent in 2023, representing the weakest growth period since 2001.

Oil and gas supply questions to persist

The world has looked to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to ramp up production.

In November, OPEC production contracted by 310,000 barrels per day. The 11th month of the year also saw the oil cartel fail to meet its projected quota by as much as 1.81 million barrels per day. On the flip side LNG imports into Europe jumped, helping to bring the price of the heating fuel to US$5.28, its lowest point since March.

For oil, supply remains a concern. Not only will countries need to secure a steady supply to keep their economies running, but nations like the US will also need to replenish reserves they tapped into earlier this year.

In 2022, the US released 180 million barrels of crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, raking in a total of US$4 billion. Currently, the reserve houses 378.62 million barrels, down from 598.92 million one year ago.

“They are not funding any oil and gas ventures, so companies cannot raise money and their production is flat,” Fulp said. “Production has been flat in the US for basically a year and a half now since we recovered from the pandemic, and it's not going higher.”

According to the Mercenary Geologist, the US has an opportunity regarding LNG if it can find more efficient ways to transport it internationally.

Oil and gas companies expected to perform well

Even though institutional investors have moved away from oil and gas, the sector saw significant profits in 2022. The year’s strong performance has led to Fitch Ratings giving the sector a stable outlook score.

“Sector performance in 2023 will remain broadly in line with that in 2022 and significantly stronger than in the mid-cycle,” it states. “We expect average oil and gas prices to moderate in 2023, not least because of an economic slowdown, but the hydrocarbon markets will remain tight due to lower oil and in particular natural gas supplies from the third largest oil-producing nation and OPEC+’s cautious stance.”

The industry watchdog expects 75 percent of oil and gas companies to report positive free cash flow after dividends.

“[Oil and gas] companies across the globe will continue to report high earnings despite windfall taxes introduced by some countries. Inflation will bite but most companies have significantly reduced costs during the period of low oil prices, which will contribute to their cash flows,” Senior Director Dmitry Marinchenko said in a report.

Optimistic about the year ahead, the ratings group believes demand growth out of Asia will be a price catalyst. 

Spare capacity could be impacted if OPEC+ remains cautious, adding tailwinds to values, as per Fitch. But the larger, longer-term energy transition could lead to slowing demand and price weakness.

Expect oil and gas price volatility in 2023

FocusEconomic panelists see production from OPEC largely stagnating in 2023, capped by the recent output quota cut.production will fall due to tighter sanctions, while output in the US is set to grow, albeit at a limited rate because of recent weak drilling activity by shale producers.

As a result, prices are expected to see some volatility with crude prices overall to average around 7 percent lower in 2023 than they did in 2022. Also, uncertainty will keep prices at the highest levels in the past decade, holding in the $90 level.