据路透社2022年12月21日报道,美国和加拿大的天然气产量预计在2023年将创下新纪录,但由于需求疲软、管道瓶颈和缺乏新的液化天然气出口工厂,增长速度可能会放缓。
在欧洲的主要天然气供应不足以后,全球天然气需求激增,美国和加拿大预计在未来几年将在高价格的推动下满足巨大的出口需求。两国在2022年的天然气日总产量已达到创纪录的1160亿立方英尺。
美国已经成为欧洲最重要的天然气来源之一,在爆发地缘政治冲突以后,美国向欧洲提供了重要的能源安全。
美加两国明年的天然气产量增长可能会比近几年慢。由于缺乏将天然气输送到主要市场(包括美国墨西哥湾地区的出口终端)的管道,两国的主要生产气田的产量都受到了限制。加拿大正在建设一个出口液化天然气的大型终端,但建成还需要两年时间。
美国最大的管道公司之一的威廉姆斯公司首席执行官艾伦•阿姆斯特朗表示:“不是产量跟不上,只是基础设施的限制。”“我们将经历一段时间,天然气生产将受到一些限制。”
美国和加拿大今年增加的天然气产量大部分来自位于得克萨斯州西部和新墨西哥州东部的二叠纪盆地等地区的石油生产伴生的天然气。
瓶颈限制产出
根据美国能源部公布的数据,2023年美国天然气日产量预计将增至1004亿立方英尺,比2022年增长2%。根据挪威著名能源咨询公司雷斯塔能源公司公布的数据,加拿大天然气日产量有望在2022年达到创纪录的180亿立方英尺,2023年达到创纪录的190亿立方英尺。
根据美国联邦政府的预测,位于阿肯色州、路易斯安那州和得克萨斯州的海恩斯维尔盆地的天然气产量在过去5年里每年增长超过20%,并有望在2022年增长大约10%。
但持续的天然气产量增长依赖于建设更多的管道,以免这些盆地像阿巴拉契亚盆地那样受到限制。阿巴拉契亚盆地是美国最大的页岩气产区,位于宾夕法尼亚州、俄亥俄州和西弗吉尼亚州。
由于产量的快速增长,加拿大的天然气管道也受到了限制,尤其是TC能源公司的NGTL管道系统,该系统将天然气输送到加拿大西部地区。
今年8月,由于NGTL管道系统维护造成的瓶颈,艾伯塔省的天然气价格一度转为负值。TC能源公司正在扩大该系统以提高天然气产量。
不断增长的LNG出口需求
从2017年到2021年,美国液化天然气出口平均每年增长96%,但预计这一增长速度将放缓,这是因为2023年美国将没有新的液化天然气出口终端投入使用。
据美国联邦政府估计,美国液化天然气日出口量预计在2022年将达到106亿立方英尺,2023年将达到123亿立方英尺。一旦得克萨斯州自由港液化天然气工厂恢复生产,美国液化天然气出口量可能会在2023年上升。自6月份发生火灾以来,自由港液化天然气工厂已经关闭了几个月。至少有两个新的美国液化天然气出口工厂预计将在2024年投入使用。
能源研究公司East Daley分析副总裁Rob Wilson表示:“伴生气产量的增长将导致明年美国天然气供应过剩,因为在2025—2030年新的液化天然气出口工厂投入使用之前,我们看不到同样的需求增长。”
伍德麦肯兹分析师Dulles Wang表示,如果加拿大的天然气产量上升,壳牌公司牵头的加拿大液化天然气项目预计将从2025年开始发货,这可能会压低价格。
分析师预计,2023年美国路易斯安那州亨利中心基准天然气价格平均为5.19美元/百万英热单位,低于目前的5.39美元/百万英热单位。
李峻 编译自 路透社
原文如下:
US, Canada Natural Gas Output Could Feel Growing Pains In 2023
U.S. and Canadian natural gas production is expected to hit new records in 2023, but growth may be slow due to weakened demand, pipeline bottlenecks and a lack of new LNG export plants.
Gas demand surged worldwide after Europe's primary supply cutting, and the United States and Canada are expected to feed copious demand for exports in coming years, bolstered by high prices. The two countries produced a record combined 116 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2022.
The United States has become one of Europe's most important sources of gas, providing essential energy security after the war.
Next year's growth could be slower than recent years. Major production fields in both countries are inhibited by a lack of pipelines to move gas to key markets, including export terminals in the U.S. Gulf. Canada is in the midst of building a large terminal to export LNG, but its completion is two years away.
"It’s not production that can’t keep up, it’s just simply infrastructure constraints," said Alan Armstrong, chief executive of Williams Cos, one of the biggest U.S. pipeline companies. "We’re going to go through a period here where production is going to be a little bit constrained."
Much of U.S. and Canadian gas output increases this year came from gas associated with oil production in places like the Permian in West Texas and eastern New Mexico.
Bottlenecks Constrain Output
U.S. gas output is expected to rise to 100.4 Bcf/d in 2023, up 2% from 2022's level, according to U.S. energy data. Canadian gas production is on track to reach a record 18 Bcf/d in 2022 and 19 Bcf/d in 2023, according to energy consultancy Rystad Energy.
Output in the Haynesville, located in Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas, and the Permian has increased more than 20% annually over the past five years and was on track to rise about 10% in 2022, according to federal forecasts.
But continued growth depends on building more pipelines, lest those basins become constrained like Appalachia, the biggest U.S. shale gas region in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia.
Pipelines are also constrained in Canada due to swift production growth, particularly TC Energy Corp.'s NGTL pipeline system that ships gas around and out of western Canada.
In August, gas prices in Alberta briefly turned negative because of bottlenecks stemming from NGTL maintenance. TC Energy is expanding the system to boost flows.
Growing LNG Export Demand
From 2017 to 2021, U.S. LNG exports rose by an average of 96% annually, but that pace is expected to slow with no new U.S. terminals set to open in 2023.
U.S. LNG exports are expected to reach 10.6 Bcf/d in 2022 and 12.3 Bcf/d in 2023, according to federal estimates. Exports could rise in 2023 once Freeport LNG's plant in Texas returns to service. It has been closed for several months since a fire in June. At least two new U.S. LNG export plants are expected to enter service in 2024.
"Growth in associated gas will cause an oversupply of gas going into next year because we don't see the same growth in demand until new LNG export plants enter service in the 2025-2030 time frame," said Rob Wilson, vice president of analytics at energy research firm East Daley.
If Canadian output rises in anticipation of future shipments from the Shell-led LNG Canada project starting in 2025, it could depress prices, Wood Mackenzie analyst Dulles Wang said.
Analysts expect gas prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark NG-W-HH-SNL in Louisiana to average $5.19 per MMBtu in 2023, down from the current $5.39.
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