2023年原油价格将回到每桶100美元

加拿大高级投资组合经理埃里克·纳托尔认为，2023年原油价格将回到每桶100美元

2023年，协调的战略石油储备（SPR）释放结束、全球经济逐步重新开放以及对油价制裁可能会推高油价

美国银行预测，得益于美联储的鸽派转向，布伦特原油价格可能很快突破每桶90美元

据油价网12月21日报道，加拿大投资管理公司Ninepoint Partners LP的合伙人兼高级投资组合经理埃里克·纳托尔12月21日对英国《金融邮报》表示，2023年油价将回到每桶100美元。分析师们表示，今年阻碍油价上涨的许多不利因素，包括全球经济复苏和几个国家政府协调发布的战略石油储备（SPR）释放，到2023年将不复存在。再加上对石油和天然气的制裁，这应该会推高油价。他还预测，由于石油和天然气股票的高需求，2023年能源板块的表现将继续优于其他市场板块。

纳托尔并不是唯一的油价看涨者。上周，美国银行预测，在美联储温和转向以及全球成功重启经济的背景下，布伦特原油价格可能很快突破每桶90美元。

美国银行预测，布伦特原油价格(目前为每桶77.93美元)在2023年的平均价格将达到每桶100美元，这要归因于疫情后重新开放后石油需求的复苏，以及产能大国每天供应量减少大约100万桶。根据这家加拿大投资管理银行的说法，欧佩克+可能会全面实施每天200万桶原油的减产计划，以提振油价。

这一预测是在油价稳步下跌之际做出的，原因是人们担心全球经济疲软将抑制燃料需求。

美国银行表示：“我们对2023年的全球石油需求和价格预测在很大程度上依赖于亚洲强劲的需求增长，因此亚洲重新开放的任何延迟都可能影响我们预期的价格轨迹。”

由于主要输油管道重启缓解了供应担忧，以及对全球经济衰退和原油需求减弱的持续担忧，原油期货价格几乎回吐了今年以来的全部涨幅，录得8个多月来最大单周跌幅。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

$100 Oil To Return In 2023

·     Portfolio manager Eric Nuttall sees oil returning to $100 per barrel in 2023.

·     The end of coordinated SPR releases, the gradual reopening of the global economy and sanctions on crude could lift oil prices in 2023. 

·     Bank of America predicted that Brent could quickly go past $90 per barrel on the back of a dovish pivot in the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners LP, has told the Financial Post that oil prices will return to $100 per barrel in 2023. According to the analysts, many of the headwinds that have cut short the oil price rally this year including the gradual reopening of the global economy and the coordinated SPR releases by several governments, will no longer be there in 2023. Coupled with sanctions on oil and gas, this should elevate oil prices. He has also predicted that the energy sector will continue to outperform other market sectors due to high demand in oil and gas stocks.

Nutall is not the only bull here.

Last week, the Bank of America predicted that Brent could quickly go past $90 per barrel on the back of a dovish pivot in the U.S. Federal Reserve and a “successful” economic reopening.

BofA has forecast that Brent prices--currently trading at $77.93--will average $100/bbl in 2023 thanks to oil demand recovery on a post-COVID reopening coupled with a drop in supplies of about 1 million barrels per day (bpd). According to the investment bank, OPEC+ is likely to fully implement a 2 million bpd output cut in a bid to boost oil prices.

The forecast has come at a time when oil prices have been steadily declining due to fears that a weakening global economy would curb fuel demand. 

“Our oil demand and price projections for 2023 rely heavily on robust Asia demand growth, so any Asia reopening delays could affect our expected price trajectory,” said the bank.

Crude oil futures have surrendered nearly all gains for the year, posting their largest weekly losses in more than eight months, as restarts for key pipelines eased supply concerns coupled with ongoing worries about a global recession and weaker crude demand.