据油价网1月16日消息称，国际能源署(IEA)在本周的一份新报告中表示，随着世界进入一个新的工业时代，清洁能源技术制造将引领潮流，在2050年实现净零排放的情况下，到2030年，清洁能源技术和基础设施的总投资必须超过4.5万亿美元。所需投资规模空前，需要各国制定产业战略，在所有区域、技术和供应链上调动这些投资。IEA表示，任务艰巨，而且由于原材料和材料加工高度集中在少数几个国家，风险也更大。
该机构表示，阻碍清洁能源技术强劲发展的其他障碍包括政策和供应链瓶颈。
IEA在报告中表示：“政策和监管风险、对示范性和首创项目缺乏信心、项目管道的不确定性、货币稳定性等更广泛的宏观经济因素，以及地缘政治事件，都可能导致瓶颈发生。”
该国际机构指出，对清洁能源的投资正在持续增长，但如果世界有机会在2050年实现净零排放，就需要进一步增加，特别是在这十年。
去年，清洁能源投资达到1.4万亿美元，比2021年增长10%，占能源部门总投资增长的70%。
然而，国际能源署表示，化石燃料仍占全球一次能源结构的80%。
能源转型取决于清洁能源技术的供应链。将需要多达1.2万亿美元的累计投资，以使供应链具备足够的在线产能，从而实现NZE情景（净零排放情景）的2030年目标。目前宣布的投资约占这一估计的60%。
IEA表示，考虑到从决策到生产的周期，大部分投资将在2023—2025年期间进行，平均每年2700亿美元，这几乎是2016—2021年平均投资速度的7倍。
“建立新供应链和扩大现有供应链的准备时间可能很长，目前需要政策干预。开矿或部署清洁能源基础设施可能需要十多年的时间。建立工厂或扩大大规模生产技术的运营只需要大约1至3年。”
除了需要扩大投资，现在就加大投资，以便在2030年启动和运行项目外，世界还需要实现清洁能源供应链的多样化。
国际能源机构表示：“关键矿产的生产在地理上高度集中，引发了人们对供应安全的担忧。”
曹海斌 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
IEA: World Needs $4.5 Trillion Investment In Clean Energy Tech By 2030
As the world enters a new industrial age, where technology manufacturing for clean energy will lead the way, total investments in clean energy technologies and infrastructure have to top $4.5 trillion in 2030 under the net-zero emissions by 2050 scenario, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a new report this week. The unprecedented scale of required investment will need industrial strategies from the countries to mobilize those investments across all regions, technologies, and supply chains. The task is enormous, and risks are also greater due to the heavily concentrated raw materials and material processing in a handful of countries,the IEA said.
Other hurdles to a robust development of clean energy technology include policy and supply chain bottlenecks, according to the agency.
"Bottlenecks can occur as a result of policy and regulatory risks, a lack of confidence in demonstration and first-of-a-kind projects, uncertainty about project pipelines, wider macroeconomic factors such as currency stability, and geopolitical events," the IEA said in its report.
Investment in clean energy is continuously rising, but it needs to rise much more, especially this decade if the world has a chance to reach net-zero by 2050, the international agency noted.
Last year, clean energy investment hit $1.4 trillion, a 10% increase compared to 2021, and representing 70% of the growth in total energy sector investment.
Yet, fossil fuels still account for 80% of the primary energy mix in the world, the IEA said.
The energy transition depends on the supply chains in clean energy technology. As much as $1.2 trillion of cumulative investment would be required to bring enough capacity online for the supply chains to be on track with the NZE Scenario's 2030 targets. Currently announced investments cover around 60% of this estimate.
Considering the lead times from decision to production, most investments will have to be made during 2023-2025, at an average of $270 billion per year, which is nearly seven times the average rate of investment over 2016-2021, the IEA said.
"Lead times to establish new supply chains and expand existing ones can be long, requiring policy interventions today. Opening mines or deploying clean energy infrastructure can take more than a decade. Building a factory or ramping up operations for mass-manufactured technologies requires only around 1-3 years."
Apart from the need to scale up investments, and to do that now for projects to be up and running in 2030, the world needs to diversify its clean energy supply chains.
"The production of critical minerals is highly concentrated geographically, raising concerns about security of supplies," the IEA says.
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