伍德麦肯兹发布2023年全球上游石油和天然气产量预测

据钻机地带1月13日消息称，上游石油和天然气生产在2022年恢复了活力。创纪录的现金流恢复了信心，修复了资产负债表。对许多人来说，新的一年令人兴奋。

伍德麦肯兹表示，提供安全和负担得起的能源是一种新的目标，尤其是在供不应求的欧洲天然气市场。

该分析公司补充说，好光景也加剧了一些挑战。2023年，人们将对该行业的未来提出严肃的问题。在各个层面上，上游行业都需要捕捉和扩大能源叙事。社会发展有赖于能源生产扩大。

伍德麦肯兹的全球专家团队齐聚一堂，分享了其对未来一年该行业的年度综述预测——以及需要注意的地方。此外，该公司还研究了全球上游趋势在某些地区可能如何发挥作用。

亚太地区

在亚太地区，2023年的所有目光都将集中在政策制定者身上，政策监管发展将成为今年的主要主题。

去年是勘探活动平静的一年，我们重点介绍了勘探公司正在深入的两个关键盆地，以及预计会出现惊喜的大型勘探开发许可。根据伍德麦肯兹的说法，与安静的2022年相比，2023年对于项目FID来说也将是更大的一年。

加拿大地区

加拿大地区以外的全球性事件占据了2022年的头条。但在该国的上游部门仍有大量勘探开采活动，涵盖了从优势、短周期非常规油气藏到深水和重油的所有资源主题。

加拿大非常规天然气的产量将会增长，但很少会超过个位数，同时运营商将慎重增产不逾越联邦低碳政策。

里海地区

哈萨克斯坦石油和阿塞拜疆天然气的出口路线将被仔细审查，大型项目的启动将支持近期的产量增长，哈萨克斯坦是否会面临迫在眉睫的天然气短缺，目前尚不清楚。

从中亚到阿塞拜疆，进入2023年的里海内陆地区，风险管理成为议程的首要任务。地缘政治冲突态势发展以及由此产生的“新地缘政治常态”的影响将持续下去。

但是，与以往一样，里海上游行业不仅面临挑战。它仍然是整个能源价值链上大规模机会的发源地，其中一些机会将在未来一年取得进展。

欧洲大陆

从荷兰到黑海，2023年的欧洲大陆，对能源安全和可负担性的担忧显得日益突出。自地缘政治态势冲击市场之后，迫使更多的政府多少有些勉强地接受了国内供应的重要性。

欧洲大陆的上游部门在规模、成熟度和社会政治背景方面是多样化的。未来12个月的活动将再次反映这一点，包括该地区与地理边界有关的重大开发活动和高影响力井的勘探。

拉丁美洲

在拉丁美洲，变化是常态，2022年也不例外。虽然一些国家正在达到新的里程碑，但其他国家正在努力补充储备。政治格局发生了巨大变化。巴西和哥伦比亚这两个主要产油国选出了新的领导。权力更迭的影响是2023年的未知因素。从积极的方面来看，拉丁美洲的产量在2022年有所增长，打破了7年来的下降趋势。

中东和北非地区

受高油价和国家石油公司现金流增加的影响，该地区投资将在2023年增加。支出将严重向天然气和液化天然气开发倾斜。随着政府开始日益重视天然气价格高企的市场情况以及欧洲打算摆脱对产能大国的长期能源依赖，天然气也将在整个地区的勘探中得到重视。减碳和可持续性将是主要的主题。因为各国政府将利用油气较高价格的时机和欧洲摆脱对产能大国依赖。碳减排和可持续发展将是主要主题。

北海地区

到2023年，北海地区的油气开发将继续大量产生现金流。这一次，创造新纪录的将是政府，而不是企业。在多达14家初创企业的推动下，生产将保持稳定，包括壳牌在英国的Penguins再开发项目。

在2022年挪威创纪录数量的FID帮助下，投资将逐渐增加。英国可能会批准20年来的最高支出，但存在很多不确定性。

撒哈拉以南非洲地区

撒哈拉以南非洲地区的开发肯定会回到日程表。纳米比亚橙色盆地的巨大发现使其成为世界上最热的新勘探盆地，欧洲正在觊觎该地区巨大的未开发天然气资源，以帮助解决其能源危机。

上游投资正在回归，预计该地区将有几项FID将会实现。尽管2023年将有几个新项目投产——这是10年来最多的项目——但情况并不乐观。在已经承诺的大型项目中，数百亿美元的资本支出面临风险。

美国墨西哥湾地区

创纪录的近400亿美元现金流、恢复Lease Sale 257区块的开发、并购活动增加以及生产和投资的增加，为2022年美国墨西哥湾上游部门带来了兴奋。

最有可能的是，2023年将为该地区带来又一年的生产和投资增长，这是由不断涌现的初创公司支撑的。但通货膨胀将继续，一些运营商将面临风险。

美国的48个州

尽管2022年宏观环境混乱，但稳定是美国油气勘探开发领域的口号。“控制你能把握的，尽可能消除业务波动”。因此，保持再投资稳定，虽然产量增长有限和交易并购活动。

曹海斌 摘译自 钻机地带

原文如下：

Upstream Oil And Gas 2023 Predictions Region-By-Region

Upstream oil and gas got its mojo back in 2022. Record cash flows restored confidence and repaired balance sheets. For many, there is excitement about the year ahead.

Wood Mackenzie said that there was a renewed sense of purpose to provide secure and affordable energy – particularly into tight European gas markets.

The analyst company added that the good times also exacerbated some of the challenges. In 2023 serious questions will be asked about the sector’s future. At all levels, the upstream industry needs to capture and broaden the energy narrative. Its social license depends on it.

Woodmac’s team of global experts came together to share its annual round-up predictions for the industry in the year ahead – and the wildcards to look out for. Also, the company looks at how global upstream trends might play out in certain regions.

Asia Pacific

In Asia Pacific, all eyes will be on the policymakers in 2023, with regulatory developments featuring heavily across the key themes for the year.

In a quiet year for E&A activity, we highlight the two key basins where explorers are going deeper and the big licensing rounds where the company expects some surprises. According to Woodmac, 2023 will also be a much bigger year for project FIDs, compared to a quiet 202

Canada

Macro events outside of Canada dominated the headlines in 2022. But plenty still occurred within the country's upstream sector, which spans all resource themes from advantaged, short-cycle unconventional plays to deepwater to heavy oil.

The unconventional output will grow, but rarely exceed single digits while operators will outpace federal methane policies.

Caspian

Export routes for Kazakh oil and Azerbaijani gas will be scrutinized, major project start-ups will support near-term volume growth – and it is unknown if Kazakhstan will confront its looming gas shortfall.

From Central Asia to Azerbaijan, the landlocked Caspian region enters 2023 with risk management at the top of the agenda. The repercussions of the war and the resulting ‘new geopolitical normal’ are here to stay.

But, as ever, the Caspian upstream sector is not only defined by its challenges. It remains home to large-scale opportunities across the energy value chain, some of which are primed for progress in the year ahead.

Continental Europe

From the Netherlands to the Black Sea, Continental Europe enters 2023 with concerns about energy security and affordability looming large. The geopolitical shocks since the war have forced more governments to accept, somewhat begrudgingly, the importance of their own domestic supply.

Continental Europe’s upstream sector is diverse: in scale, maturity, and socio-political context. Activity in the next 12 months will once again reflect this, including major developments and high-impact exploration at the region’s geographical frontiers.

Latin America

Change is a constant in Latin America and 2022 was no exception. While some countries are reaching new milestones, others are struggling to replenish reserves. The political landscape shifted in a big way. Two of the main oil-producing counties, Brazil and Colombia, voted in new leaders. Change of power is the unknown factor for 2023. On the positive side, Latin American production grew in 2022, breaking a seven-year trend of annual declines.

Middle East and North Africa

Buoyed by high prices and swelling NOC coffers, the investment will ramp up in 2023. Spending will be heavily skewed to gas and LNG developments. Gas will also be emphasized in exploration throughout the region as governments capitalize on high prices and the longer-term shift away from Europe’s dependency. Carbon reduction and sustainability will be dominant themes.

North Sea

The North Sea will continue to churn out cash in 2023. This time governments rather than companies will set new records. Production will be stable, driven by up to 14 start-ups, including Shell’s Penguins redevelopment in the UK.

The investment will creep up, helped by a record number of FIDs in Norway in 2022. The UK could sanction the highest level of spending in 20 years but there is lots of uncertainty. And the time ahead is probably a ‘now or never’ situation for Cambo and Rosebank.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is firmly back on the agenda. Giant discoveries in Namibia’s Orange Basin make it the world’s hottest new exploration basin and Europe is eyeing up the region’s vast undeveloped gas resources to help solve its energy crisis.

Upstream investment is returning, with several greenfield final investment decisions expected. Despite several new projects coming onstream in 2023 – the highest number this decade – all is not rosy. Tens of billions of dollars of capex are at risk at already committed major projects.

US Gulf of Mexico

Record cash flow of close to $40 billion, reinstating Lease Sale 257, an uptick in M&A activity, and increased production and investment brought excitement to the US Gulf of Mexico upstream sector in 2022.

Most probably, 2023 will bring another year of production and investment growth underpinned by delayed startups. But inflation will continue, and some operators will be exposed.

US Lower 48

Despite a chaotic macro environment in 2022, stability was the watchword for US E&Ps. Control what you can control. Remove business volatility wherever possible. As such, reinvestment remained steady, production growth was limited, and M&A activity included plenty of bolt-on deals.