据全球能源新闻网1月15日报道，根据美国能源情报署（EIA）的预测，受非欧佩克产量大幅增长的推动，2024年全球液体燃料日产量将从2022年的1亿桶增至1.028亿桶。然而，产能大国石油供应的不确定性将持续存在，特别是在2023年初。全球液体燃料消费量预计将从2022年的平均9940万桶/天增加到2024年的1.022亿桶/天。然而，对全球经济状况的持续担忧，增加了需求预测结果的不确定性。由于预测全球石油产量高于消费量，预计未来两年全球石油库存将增加。
据EIA预测，2023年布伦特原油均价为每桶83美元，较2022年下降18%，随着全球石油库存的增加，2024年将继续下跌至78美元/桶，从而给原油价格带来下行压力。
郝芬 译自 全球能源新闻网
原文如下：
EIA – GLOBAL LIQUID FUELS TO EXCEED 102 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY IN 2024
According to the EIA (US Energy Information Administration) Global production of liquid fuels in its forecast will reach an average of 102.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, up from 100.0 million b/d in 2022, driven by large growth in non-OPEC production. However, uncertainty over the third producer's oil supply will persist, particularly in early 2023. Global consumption of liquid fuels are expected to increase from an average of 99.4 million b/d in 2022 to 102.2 million b/d in 2024. ongoing concerns about global economic conditions , however, increase the uncertainty of the outcomes of the demand forecasts. With more global oil production than consumption in the forecast, global oil inventories are expected to increase over the next two years.
The EIA forecasts that the Brent crude oil price will average $83 per barrel in 2023, down 18% from 2022, and continue to fall to $78/b in 2024 as global oil inventories build, putting downward pressure on crude oil prices.
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