高盛：强劲需求增长年内将把油价推高到105美元

高盛投资公司认为，强劲的需求增长可能会让布伦特原油价格在2023年第四季度攀升至105美元

高盛投资公司认为，由于欧佩克+干预石油市场的能力，石油市场的下行空间有限

据油价网2023年1月10日报道，高盛投资公司表示，全球石油需求的强劲增长将推动油价今年突破100美元，布伦特原油价格到今年第四季度可能达到每桶105美元。

这家美国投资银行在《国家报》(the National)上发表的一份报告中称，2023年世界石油日需求将增加270万桶，市场需求将在今年下半年重新出现赤字。

周一油价上涨4%。至少在这一天，市场参与者关注的是石油需求的光明前景，而不是发达经济体即将出现经济衰退的担忧。

高盛投资公司表示，对今年需求强劲增长的预期，应能让欧佩克+集团在2023年下半年解除去年10月宣布的减产措施。

但高盛投资银行表示，如果需求低于预期，欧佩克+“可能会坚持去年10月份的减产，或进一步减产，因为其具有强大的定价权”。

高盛投资公司指出：“总体而言，‘欧佩克卖出期权’限制了我们看涨油价预测的下行风险。” 

去年12月中旬，高盛投资公司表示，供应短缺和对新供应的投资不足将导致2023年大宗商品迎来丰收之年。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Goldman Sachs: Oil Prices To Hit $105 On Solid Demand Growth

·     Goldman Sachs believes solid demand growth could send Brent climbing to $105 by the fourth quarter of 2023.

·     Goldman Sachs believes the downside for oil markets is limited due to the ability of OPEC+ to intervene in oil markets.

Solid growth in global oil demand is set to drive oil prices to above $100 this year and Brent Crude could trade at $105 per barrel by the fourth quarter, according to Goldman Sachs.  

World oil demand is set to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 and the market would return to deficit in the second half of the year, the U.S. investment bank said in a note carried by The National.

Oil prices jumped by 4% on Monday. Market participants focused – at least for a day – on brighter prospects of oil demand, instead of on fears that recessions in developed economies are imminent.

Expectations of solid demand growth this year should allow the OPEC+ group to unwind in the second half of 2023 the production cut announced in October, Goldman Sachs said.

But if demand is softer than predicted, OPEC+ “could stick to its October cuts or cut production even further, given its significant pricing power,” the bank said.

In mid-December, Goldman said that supply shortages and insufficient investment in new supply would result in a bumper year for commodities in 2023.