2023年影响海上风电的十大因素

据钻机地带1月9日报道，研究机构Intelatus Global Partners发布2023年影响海上风电行业的十大因素的研究报告。

预计到2030年，风电将增长到240吉瓦，到2035年将超过410吉瓦。Intelatus研究总监菲利普·刘易斯(Philip Lewis)表示，海上风电的美好前景必须与一些正在形成的困难相平衡。他还编制了一份新一年影响该行业的因素清单：

1.坚实的基础：在能源转型和能源安全政策的推动下，越来越多超过400吉瓦的国家直接宣布和间接提出海上风电部署目标为该供应链的乐观态度奠定了基础。

2.该行业新加入者：在亚洲大国、英国、欧盟等所有成熟市场，海上风电活动预计将保持强劲。商业规模的风电场将在美国、新的欧盟市场（希腊、爱尔兰、意大利、波兰和波罗的海国家、葡萄牙、西班牙等）、日本和韩国发展。澳大利亚、印度、菲律宾、加拿大、巴西和哥伦比亚的政府都将采取措施推进海上风电项目许可。

3.P2X是该行业规则的改变者：在海上风能术语中，Power-to-X意味着将电子转换为可移动和可存储的能源分子。最初产生绿色氢时，电子将转化为一系列氢基能源载体，如甲醇和氢，用于工业、住宅和交通领域。在这十年内，海上风电制氢正从示范项目转向商业规模项目。P2X是零补贴风电场的驱动力，最初在西北欧，未来将进一步扩大。

4.改变桩基：增长的总体桩基是积极的，但将部署哪种类型的桩基？在本世纪20年代内安装的项目中，底部固定式（主要是单桩，但也包括导管架和重力基座）将占据主导地位，但2023年将更加关注商业规模的浮动风电场的开发，该风电场最早将在本世纪20年代末投入使用，但主要是在2030年之后。

浮动风能为底基项目带来了不同的制造业供应链机遇和挑战。市场正在关注大型AHTS、配备合适起重机的海上施工船舶、甲板空间和员工的潜在短缺。这种短缺将成为一种全球现象，并因当地条件不同而有所加剧。

5. 通货膨胀的影响：通货膨胀和供应链中断将导致海上风能项目延误甚至取消。几家开发商已经发布了项目警告，并寻求在不断上涨的成本与发电承诺之间取得平衡。

6.供应链重组：三家传统的国际涡轮机原始设备制造商（西门子、维斯塔斯和通用电气）由于需要继续开发更大的涡轮机，难以短期盈利。这些更大的涡轮机驱动更大的桩基、电力电缆和安装船，所有这些都需要供应链投资……并使供应链获得适当的投资回报。

7.亚洲大国原始设备制造商的扩大：随着该国市场情况日益复苏稳定，该国涡轮机原始设备制造商和其他供应商正在寻求向海外市场出口。随着大型新涡轮机推出市场，可以预计前述三大国际企业将在其核心市场面临激烈的价格竞争。

8. 船舶(和其他供应链)短缺：随着技术、客户和本地驱动因素的不断发展，有多少公司会在没有长期盈利预期的情况下投资新船舶？除了一些成熟的公司，答案是“相对较少”。建造或支持船舶投资的关键驱动因素是项目盈利预期和开发商的财务投资决策。从本世纪20年代中期起，几个关键市场的船舶投资延迟将给实现预期交付能力带来阻碍。

9. 船舶市场在不断发展，但许多问题仍未得到解答：船舶运营商明白他们需要脱碳，但如何解决未来船舶燃料的问题?是生物燃料、甲醇、氨等氢基燃料，还是其他氢载体？如何转换能源载体——多燃料内燃机或燃料电池问题？基于电池的混合动力船，甚至是SOV和CTV的全电动船呢？如何确保“绿色”燃料或电力供应？还有这么多问题没有达成共识。答案将是基于能源载体可用性的客体选择。

10.更多的项目所在地条件影响：项目所在地政府希望在当地就业率提升方面受益于海上风电项目投资。研究课题组预计美国、日本和韩国市场的当地政策壁垒将不断增加。在一些市场，如美国，除了联邦政策外，地方政策因素更加需要考虑地方和州级政府的法律法规。当地政策的限制将给开发商造成障碍，并可能导致项目延迟和取消。成熟的欧洲市场开放贸易框架将为持续跨境项目投资活动和稳固供应链提供信心。

郝芬 译自 钻机地带

原文如下：

Ten Factors That Will Shape Offshore Wind In 2023

Intelatus Global Partners has looked at ten factors that will shape the offshore wind sector in 2023.

The sector is forecast to grow to 240 GW by 2030 and over 410 GW by 2035. Philip Lewis, a Director of Research at Intelatus, said that the sunny outlook for offshore wind must be balanced with some building dark clouds. He also compiled a list of factors influencing the sector in the new year.

1. Solid foundations: Optimism for the supply chain is founded on declared and inferred offshore wind deployment targets by a growing number of countries of over 400 GW, driven by energy transition and energy security policies.

2. New kids on the block: Offshore wind activity is expected to remain strong in all established markets –the biggest country in Asia,the UK, the European Union. Commercial-scale wind farms will advance in the US, new European Union markets (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Poland and the Baltics, Portugal, Spain, etc.), Japan, and South Korea. Governments in Australia, India, the Philippines, Canada, Brazil, and Columbia will all take steps to advance offshore wind project permitting.

3. P2X is a game changer: Power-to-X in offshore wind terms means converting electrons to moveable and storable molecules. Initially producing green hydrogen, the electrons will be converted to a range of hydrogen-based energy carriers such as methanol and hydrogen for use in the industrial, residential, and transportation segments. Offshore wind-to-hydrogen production is moving from demonstration to commercial-scale projects within this decade. P2X is the driver for zero-subsidy wind farms, initially in northwest Europe and expanding further in the future.

4. Shifting foundations: The overall foundations for growth are positive, but what type of foundations will be deployed? Bottom fixed (mainly monopiles but also jackets and gravity bases) will dominate on projects installed within this decade, but 2023 will see an increased focus on the development of commercial-scale floating wind farms, which will come on stream at the very earliest at the end of this decade but mainly after 2030.

Floating wind drives different manufacturing supply chain opportunities and challenges to bottom-fixed projects. We are focusing on a potential shortage of large AHTSs, offshore construction vessels with suitable cranes and deck space and crew. The shortage will become a global phenomenon accentuated by local content requirements.

5. The impacts of inflation: Inflation and supply chain disruptions will result in delays and possibly cancellations. Several developers have issued project warnings and are seeking to balance rising costs with power offtake commitments.

6. Supply chain restructuring: The three traditional international turbine OEMs (Siemens, Vestas, and GE) struggle to make money as they continue developing ever-larger turbines. These larger turbines drive bigger foundations, power cables, and installation vessels, all requiring supply chain investments…and for the supply chain to make suitable returns on investments.

7. The expansion of the OEMs of the biggest country in Asia: As the Chinese market settles down after an exceptional 2021,turbine OEMs of the biggest country in Asia and other suppliers are looking to export to overseas markets. With large new turbines being offered, one can expect the big three international players to face stiff price competition in their core markets.

8. Vessel (and other supply chain) shortages: With the evolving technical, client, and local content drivers, how many companies will invest in new vessels without long-term commitments? Outside of some established players, the answer is “relatively few.” The key driver for construction or support vessel investment is project commitments coupled with developer financial investment decisions. Delays in vessel investment in several key markets will pose a problem from the middle of the decade in delivering forecast capacity.

9. Vessels are evolving, but many questions remain unanswered: Vessel operators understand that they need to decarbonize, but what is the solution to future-proof a vessel? Will it be biofuels, hydrogen-based fuels such as methanol, ammonia, or other hydrogen carriers? How to convert the energy carriers - multi-fuel internal combustion engines or fuel cells? What about battery-based hybrid vessels or even fully electric for SOVs and CTVs? How to secure “green” fuel or electricity supply? So many questions with no firm consensus. The answer will be an individual choice based on the availability of energy carriers.

10. More local content: Governments want a return on their investment in offshore wind in terms of local employment. We anticipate increasing local content barriers in the U.S., Japanese, and South Korean markets. In some markets, like the United States, local content is established at a local and state level in addition to federal policies. Local restrictions will create barriers for developers and may result in project delays and cancellations. The established European market’s open trade framework will support ongoing cross-border activity and supply chain confidence.