据阿拉伯贸易网2023年1月30日多哈报道，一项新的研究显示，到2050年，全球能源需求预计将增长22%，而天然气在能源结构中所占的份额将从目前的23%上升至26%。
在赤道几内亚矿业和碳氢化合物部长加布里埃尔·利马的见证下，天然气出口国论坛(GECF)发布了最新版的《2050年全球天然气展望》报告。
主要研究结果显示，到2050年，全球GDP将翻一番以上，从目前的95万亿美元增加到210万亿美元，到2050年全球人口数量将增加18亿，其中大部分增加将发生在非洲和亚太地区。
此外，新研究表示，到2050年天然气供应将增加36%，天然气贸易将扩大三分之一以上，以液化天然气为首，到2026年前将超过管道天然气贸易，预测期内所需的上游投资将达到9.7万亿美元。
利马说：“多年来，GECF《2050年全球天然气展望》报告已成为天然气行业、政府、大学等学术机构和公众的重要咨询工具，这让我向GECF整个团队表示祝贺，他们为这一咨询和管理工具的新版本而辛勤工作。”
GECF秘书长穆罕默德·哈默尔强调，在改善空气质量和减少温室气体排放的同时，需要所有的能源和技术来满足世界日益增长的能源需求。
哈默尔说：“不确定性从未如此之大，挑战从未如此之深。然而，更清楚、更关键的是能源的三难困境：如何确保在短期到长期内建立一个安全、负担得起、可持续的能源系统？ 应该采取什么步骤来确保能源可用于社会经济发展？发展经济的同时如何保护环境？”
最新版的《2050年全球天然气展望》报告旨在通过研究全球和区域经济增长前景、能源需求和供应、天然气贸易和投资、政策影响、技术发展和各种其他驱动因素来回答这些紧迫的问题。
与此同时，新开发的替代能源方案“能源可持续方案”和“能源加速脱碳方案”分别考虑了结束非洲能源贫困和促进经济增长，以及加快全球脱碳的可能途径。
李峻 编译自 阿拉伯贸易网
原文如下：
Natural gas share of energy mix will rise to 26% in 2050: GECF
The energy demand is expected to rise 22 per cent by 2050 and the natural gas’ share in the energy mix will go from 23 per cent today to 26 per cent in 2050, according to a new study.
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) launched the latest edition of its annual Global Gas Outlook 2050 (Outlook), in the presence of the 2023 President of the GECF, Gabriel M Obiang Lima, Minister of Mines and Hydrocarbons, Equatorial Guinea.
The key findings show that by 2050 that the Global GDP will more than double, from $95 trillion today to $210 trillion in real terms and the population growth will see 1.8 billion additional people in 2050 with most of this rise taking place in Africa and the Asia Pacific.
Further, the saudy said the natural gas supply will increase by 36 per cent, the natural gas trade will expand by more than a third, led by LNG, which will overtake pipeline trade by 2026 and the upstream investment required over the forecast period is a hefty $9.7 trillion.
Lima said: “The GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050, has become over the years an essential consultation tool for the natural gas industry, governments, academic institutions such as universities and for the general public, which makes me congratulate the entire GECF team that has worked for the edition of this consultation and management tool.”
Mohamed Hamel, Secretary General of the GECF, emphasised that all energy sources and technologies will be required to satisfy the world’s growing energy needs, while improving air quality and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Hamel said: “The uncertainties have never been so large, and the challenges so profound. What is nevertheless clearer, and more crucial, is the energy trilemma: how to ensure a secure, affordable, and sustainable energy system over the short- to long-term? What steps should be taken to ensure that energy is available for socio-economic development, while concurrently protecting the environment?”
The Outlook seeks to answer these pressing questions by examining the global and regional economic growth prospects, demand and supply of energy, natural gas trade and investment, the effects of policies, technological developments, and various other drivers.
Meanwhile, the two newly-developed alternative energy scenarios of Energy Sustainability Scenario and Accelerated Energy Decarbonisation Scenario consider ending energy poverty and promoting economic growth in Africa, and possible pathways for faster global decarbonisation, respectively
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