据世界能源新闻网2023年1月31日报道，美国天然气期货价格周二（1月31日）持稳于21个月低点附近，有望录得历史第二大单月跌幅，这是因为本周极寒天气导致天然气产量下降，抵消了天气变暖和下周取暖需求低于此前预期的预期。
美国天然气价格已持续低迷数周，原因是越来越多的人相信，美国的天然气储备足以满足冬季剩余时间的需求，同时人们预计，自由港液化天然气公司位于得克萨斯州的液化天然气出口工厂仍需数周时间才能大量进口天然气来生产液化天然气。
在过去一周左右的时间里，由于寒冷的天气和冬季风暴冻结了包括得克萨斯州、俄克拉荷马州、科罗拉多州、北达科他州和宾夕法尼亚州在内的几个州的石油和天然气井(在能源行业被称为冻结)，天然气日产量下降大约34亿立方英尺，下降到958亿立方英尺/天的一个月低点。
根据Refinitiv和联邦政府公布的数据，尽管本周天气极度寒冷，但到目前为止，美国大陆1月份的平均气温约为42.2华氏度(5.7摄氏度)，1月份有望成为美国自2006年以来最热的1个月，当时平均气温达到创纪录的42.8华氏度。
美国东部时间1月31日上午10时04分，3月份交货的即月天然气期货价格维持在每百万英热单位2.674美元不变。1月30日，这个价格收于2021年4月以来的最低价格。这使得该合约处于超卖区域，相对强弱指数(RSI)连续第二天低于30，也是今年第15次。
气象学家预测，在2月4日之前，美国大陆的大部分地区的气温都将低于正常水平，然后从2月5日到至少2月15日，气温将高于正常水平。
随着天气变暖，Refinitiv预测美国天然气需求(包括出口)将从本周的1345亿立方英尺/天降至下周的1288亿立方英尺/天。本周的预测高于Refinitiv周一的预测，而下周的预测则较低。
李峻 编译自 世界能源新闻网
原文如下：
U.S. Natgas Demand, Price Nosedive Continues
U.S. natural gas futures held near a 21-month low on Tuesday, keeping the contract on track for its second-biggest monthly drop in history, as a decline in output from this week's extreme cold offset forecasts for warmer weather and less heating demand next week than previously expected.
Gas prices have been depressed for weeks due to a growing belief that the country has more than enough gas in storage for the rest of the winter and expectations that Freeport LNG's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas is still weeks away from pulling in big amounts of gas to produce LNG.
Output was on track to drop about 3.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) over the past week or so to a preliminary one-month low of 95.8 bcfd as cold weather and winter storms froze oil and gas wells - known as freeze-offs in the energy industry - in several states, including Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, North Dakota and Pennsylvania.
Despite this week's extreme cold, temperatures in the U.S. Lower 48 states have averaged about 42.2 degrees Fahrenheit (5.7 Celsius) so far in January, putting this month on track to be the warmest January since 2006 when the mercury averaged a record 42.8 F, according to data from Refinitiv and the federal government.
Front-month gas futures for March delivery remained unchanged at $2.674 per million British thermal units at 10:04 a.m. EST. On Monday, the contract closed at its lowest level since April 2021.
That kept the contract in oversold territory with a relative strength index (RSI) below 30 for a second day in a row and the 15th time this year.
Meteorologists forecast temperatures across much of the lower 48 U.S. states would remain mostly colder than normal through Feb. 4 before turning warmer than normal from Feb. 5 through at least Feb. 15.
With milder weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 134.5 bcfd this week to 128.8 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday, while its forecast for next week was lower.
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