据油价网1月30日消息称，英国石油公司(bp)周一表示，全球石油需求预计将在本世纪20年代末至30年代初达到峰值，原因是地缘政治冲突正在加速对清洁能源的投资，各国政府正寻求通过提高可再生能源在能源结构中的比例来加强能源安全。
在最受关注的行业报告之一，bp的《2023年能源展望》(对2050年的预测)称，随着公路运输使用量的下降，所有三种可能情境下的石油需求都将下降。
bp表示：“未来10年左右，全球石油需求将趋于平稳，之后将出现下降，部分原因是随着车辆效率提高，替代能源越来越多，道路运输用油将减少。”
在“新势头”情景中，bp在展望中提出了反映能源系统“当前大轨迹”的三种情景之一，到本十年结束时，全球石油需求仍接近目前的1亿桶/天，到2035年将降至约9300万桶/天。“加速”情景预计2030年石油需求为9100万桶/天，2035年为8000万桶/天，而“净零”情景预计2030年需求将降至8500万桶/天，到2035年进一步降至7000万桶/天。
根据展望，天然气的前景取决于能源转型的速度，短期内液化天然气贸易将增长，但2030年后前景将变得更加不确定。
bp首席经济学家Spencer Dale表示，《2023年展望》中的情景已经更新，以考虑到战争以及美国通过的《降低通胀法案》。
Dale说：“最重要的是，各国希望通过减少对进口能源（以化石燃料为主）的依赖来加强能源安全，获得更多国内生产的能源——其中大部分可能来自可再生能源和其他非化石能源——这表明地缘政治冲突可能会加快能源转型的步伐。”
曹海斌 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
BP Believes Oil Demand Will Peak Near 2030 As Shift To Renewables Accelerates
Global oil demand is expected to peak between the late 2020s and early 2030s as the war is accelerating investment in clean energy and governments are looking to bolster energy security with higher shares of renewables in the energy mix, BP said on Monday.
In one of the most closely-watched industry reports, the BP Energy Outlook 2023 with projections through 2050 says that oil demand falls over the outlook in all three scenarios as use in road transportation declines.
“Global oil demand plateaus over the next 10 years or so before declining over the rest of the outlook, driven in part by the falling use of oil in road transport as vehicles become more efficient and are increasingly fuelled by alternative energy sources,” BP said.
In the “New Momentum” scenario, BP’s one of three scenarios in the outlook reflecting “the current broad trajectory” of energy systems, global oil demand remains close to the current 100 million bpd by the end of this decade and drops to around 93 million bpd in 2035. The “Accelerated” scenario projects oil demand at 91 million bpd in 2030 and 80 million bpd in 2035, while the “Net Zero” scenario sees demand dropping to 85 million bpd in 2030, and further down to 70 million bpd by 2035.
The prospects for natural gas depend on the speed of the energy transition, according to BP’s outlook, which sees LNG trade growing in the near term, but the outlook becoming more uncertain after 2030.
The scenarios in Outlook 2023 have been updated to take account of the war, as well as of the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States, BP’s chief economist Spencer Dale said.
“Most importantly, the desire of countries to bolster their energy security by reducing their dependency on imported energy – dominated by fossil fuels – and instead have access to more domestically produced energy – much of which is likely to come from renewables and other non-fossil energy sources – suggests that the war is likely to accelerate the pace of the energy transition,” Dale said.
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