据油价新闻网1月31日消息称，原油价格已经找到了一个最低点，他们唯一的出路就是走高。这是彭博社援引RBC大宗商品分析师Helima Croft和Michael Tran的说法。
他们表示：“我们对基本框架保持建设性，事实上，如果今年的低点最终达到三周前在今年第二个交易日看到的每桶72美元的水平，我们一点也不会感到惊讶。”他们补充说，亚洲的重新开放因素尚未完全在石油市场受到充分重视与计价体现。
这听起来可能有点令人惊讶，因为亚洲的重新开放被认为是油价最近攀升的最大原因，也是全球市场前进的最大动能。
Michael Tran在接受彭博社采访时表示：“我们认为，随着亚洲的重新开放，石油市场还没有多少价格体现，原因是消费走向正常化的道路仍将相当坎坷。”
Tran表示，这条正常化道路的标志可能是进口量的增加，目前仍比疫情前的水平低约150万至170万桶/日。
不过，这位分析师指出，并非所有这些交易量都需要回归，油价才会飙升。Tran告诉彭博社：“这里的关键点是，我们不需要把所有这些都恢复到市场大幅反弹的水平。如果在接下来的几个月里开始每天增加25万桶、50万桶或100万桶，最好押注这将是一个走高的石油市场”。
梁金燕 编译自 油价新闻网
原文如下：
RBC: Oil Prices Will only Go Higher From Here
Crude oil prices have found a floor and the only way they can go from here would be higher. That’s according to RBC commodity analysts Helima Croft and Michael Tran, as quoted by Bloomberg.
“We remain constructive on the fundamental framework, and in fact, we would not be the least bit surprised if the lows of the year end up being the US$72/bbl (per barrel) print that we saw three weeks ago on the second trading day of the year,” they said, adding that China’s reopening had not yet been fully priced in to the oil market.
This might sound a bit surprising given that China’s reopening is being cited as the biggest reason behind oil prices’ recent climb upwards and as the biggest tailwind for them going forward.
Yet with reports coming in about still high infection rates in the world’s largest importer of crude oil, it may well be the case that China’s reopening has not yet been priced in to the oil market.
“We don't think that there's much that's being priced into the oil market as a function of China's reopening yet and the reason why is because the consumer path towards normalization is still going to be quite bumpy,” Michael Tran told Bloomberg in an interview.
This path to normalization will likely be marked by an increase in imports, which are still about 1.5 to 1.7 million bpd below where they were pre-pandemic, according to Tran.
Not all of these volumes need to return for oil prices to spike, the analyst noted, however. “The key idea here is we don't need to get all of that back for the market to rally significantly. If you start picking up a quarter million, half million, [or] one million barrels a day over the course of the next several months, you better bet that this is going to be an oil market that moves higher,” Tran told Bloomberg.
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