2022年5大石油巨头获得1987亿美元收入

据彭博新闻社2023年1月26日报道，埃克森美孚公司、雪佛龙公司、壳牌公司、道达尔能源公司和英国石油公司去年总共获得近2000亿美元的收入。然而，对经济放缓、天然气价格暴跌、成本通胀以及亚洲市场重新开放的不确定性的担忧，使5大石油巨头2023年收入增长前景变得黯淡。

2022年创纪录利润

这5大石油巨头预计将在未来几天内报告2022年的利润总额将达到1987亿美元。根据彭博新闻社汇编的统计数据，这比十多年前创下的年度纪录还高出50%。

业内分析师表示，这5大石油巨头过去12个月里金融海啸期间所产生的利润意味着，石油行业能够维持股息增长和股票回购。对股东来说至关重要的是，随着大宗商品的繁荣，管理团队推迟了增加支出，这与之前的周期形成了鲜明对比。

相反，他们选择偿还债务并提高投资者回报：1月25日，雪佛龙公司宣布将回购750亿美元的股票，此举震惊了股东，这是雪佛龙公司目前年度回购支出的5倍。

汇丰控股有限公司欧洲石油和天然气研究主管Kim Fustier说：“相对于2022年的创纪录水平，大宗商品价格全面下跌，但看起来2023年仍将是利润非常强劲的一年。”“就整体分配和股票回购而言，今年很可能是历史上第二好的一年。”

虽然2022年第四季度获得的利润是历史上最高的3个季度之一，但由于油气价格下跌，利润可能会下降。埃克森美孚公司和壳牌公司的产量指导显示，炼油利润率高于预期。

尽管能源价格大幅回落——目前原油和天然气价格低于去年2月底时的价格——但这可能有助于将全球经济和能源公司置于更为稳固的长期增长轨道上。较低的能源成本有助于缓解通胀，缓解各国央行继续加息的压力。

各大石油勘探公司全线都在集中精力将创纪录的利润返还给股东，同时控制支出。这一策略引发了从布鲁塞尔到华盛顿的政客们的政治攻击，他们希望增加供应以压低价格。

自去年2月24日以来，尽管原油价格下跌了11%，但5大石油巨头的股价至少上涨了18%。去年标准普尔500指数中表现最好的10家公司都是能源公司，埃克森美孚公司股价上涨了80%，是有记录以来表现最好的一年。根据彭博社汇编的数据，尽管石油公司仅占该指数市值的5%，但其收益占该指数收益的10%左右。

管理着大约4000亿美元资产的路博迈（Neuberger Berman Group LLC）高级分析师杰夫•威尔表示：“投资者被这石油行业目前所具备的许多特点所吸引。”“石油行业试图成为一个增长型行业，但失败了。石油行业将自己重塑为一个现金分配和收益游戏，在这种环境下很有吸引力。”

石油巨头命运的关键在于，它们能否兑现去年在大宗商品价格持续数月上涨期间做出的对股东回报的承诺。

管理着大约2750亿美元资产的骏利亨德森投资公司（Janus Henderson）首席能源分析师诺亚·巴雷特表示：“我预计石油公司将维持这些股东回报。在几乎任何油价下，基本股息都非常安全，资产负债表状况良好，我预计他们将继续回购股票。”

对资本支出的反感仍在继续

投资者也渴望听到高管们坚守资本纪律的口头禅。在过去10年的大部分时间里，支出的巨大增长侵蚀了股东回报，并使石油行业容易受到2016年和2020年油价暴跌的影响。

“目前石油公司仍不愿大幅增加资本支出，”威尔如是说，“石油公司过去一度遇到的问题是一次做太多的大型项目。现在石油公司更加专注这个问题。”

到目前为止，这种纪律似乎仍然有效。埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龙公司都提高了今年的支出目标。然而，这些增长主要是由通胀推动，而不是由长期增长项目推动。高盛集团在1月9日的一份报告中表示，尽管从2020年初到2022年年中，油价上涨了500%，但全球石油和天然气的实际资本支出下降了。

在这个财报季里，企业高管们面临的一个关键问题是，他们为欧洲的暴利税预留了多少。埃克森美孚公司估计要支付20亿美元暴利税，但正在采取法律行动。壳牌公司表示，其2022年的暴利税账单可能总计24亿美元。

1月早些时候，埃克森美孚公司表示，由于石油和天然气价格下跌，该公司去年第四季度收益比前一季度减少了大约37亿美元，但业内分析师指出，炼油利润率远高于预期。这家美国石油巨头将于1月31日发布其2022年财报。

壳牌公司新任命的首席执行官Wael Sawan将主持他的第一次公司业绩电话会议，壳牌公司还指出，炼油业务将更加强劲，并指出天然气交易将出现反弹。道达尔能源公司在1月17日的一份声明中指出了类似的趋势。

李峻 编译自 彭博新闻社

原文如下：

Major oil and gas players bring in $199 billion in 2022, expect stall in growth in 2023

Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year. However, fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over Asian re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.

Record-setting profit year in 2022

The five companies are expected to report $198.7 billion in combined 2022 profit in the next few days. This is 50% higher than the previous annual record set more than a decade ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The tsunami of cash generated by the group over the past 12 months means the industry can sustain dividend increases and share buybacks, analysts said. Crucially for shareholders, management teams held off on spending increases as commodities boomed, in stark contrast with previous cycles.

Instead, they opted to repay debt and swell investor returns: Chevron stunned shareholders with a $75 billion stock-repurchase announcement on Jan. 25, — five times the company’s current annual outlay for buybacks. 

“Commodity prices are down across the board relative to record 2022 levels, but it still looks like it’s going to be a very strong year,” said Kim Fustier, head of European oil and gas research at HSBC Holdings Plc. “It could very well be the second-best year in history for overall distributions and share buybacks.”

Fourth-quarter earnings, while one of the three highest on record, will likely decrease from lower oil and gas prices. Guidance from Exxon and Shell suggest refining margins held up more than expected.

While the pullback in energy prices has been sharp — crude and gas are lower now than when the war in late February — it may help put the global economy and energy companies on a firmer long-term trajectory. Lower energy costs are helping take some of the sting out of inflation, easing pressure on central banks to carry on raising interest rates.

Across the board, the biggest oil explorers are focused on funneling record profits back to shareholders while keeping a check on spending. That strategy has provoked political attacks from Brussels to Washington D.C. by politicians wanting more supply to bring down prices.

Shares of the five supermajors are up at least 18% since the war an 11% drop in the price of crude. The top ten performers in the S&P 500 last year were all energy companies, with Exxon advancing 80% for its best annual performance on record. Oil companies now generate about 10% of the index’s earnings, despite making up just 5% of its market value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Investors are attracted to a lot of the characteristics this sector has to offer now,” said Jeff Wyll, a senior analyst at Neuberger Berman Group LLC, which manages about $400 billion. “It was trying to be a growth sector and that failed. It reinvented itself as a cash distribution and yield play, which is attractive in this environment.”

Key to the oil majors’ fortunes is whether they can stick to shareholder-return pledges made last year during the months-long run-up in commodity prices.

“I expect them to maintain those shareholder returns,” said Noah Barrett, lead energy analyst at Janus Henderson, which manages about $275 billion. “The base dividends are incredibly safe at almost any oil price, balance sheets are in good shape and I expect them to continue buying back shares.”

Aversions to capital spending continue

Investors are also keen to hear executives sticking to the mantra of capital discipline. It was the huge growth in spending over much of the last decade that eroded shareholder returns and left the sector vulnerable to oil crashes in 2016 and 2020.

“There is still an aversion to big capital expenditure increases, period,” Wyll said. “The problem the sector got into in the past is doing too many megaprojects at one time. Now it’s much more focused.”

So far that discipline appears to be holding. Exxon and Chevron both raised spending targets for this year. However, the increases were driven largely by inflation rather than ramping up long-term growth projects. Despite a 500% increase in oil prices from early 2020 to mid-2022, global oil and gas capital spending fell in real terms, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a Jan. 9 note.

One crucial question for executives this earnings season is how much they’re reserving for European windfall-profit taxes. Exxon estimated a $2 billion charge but is pursuing legal action. Shell says its 2022 bill may total $2.4 billion.

Earlier this month, Exxon indicated that fourth-quarter earnings took a hit of about $3.7 billion from weaker oil and gas prices compared with the previous quarter, but analysts noted that refining margins were much stronger than expected. The US oil giant reports on Jan. 31.

Shell, whose newly-appointed Chief Executive Officer Wael Sawan will host his first earnings call, also noted stronger refining and pointed to a rebound in gas trading. TotalEnergies pointed to similar trends in a Jan. 17 statement.