据油价网1月31日报道，国际货币基金组织(IMF)修正了全球经济增长展望，以反映经济放缓风险降低因素，这给石油市场增添了一丝乐观情绪。
在最新一期的《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)月度报告中，世行预计通胀将见顶，全球经济今年将增长2.9%。虽然这比2022年估计的3.4%的增长率有所下降，但比上个月预测的2.7%的增长率有所上调。
该机构还表示，今年和明年的油价都将低于2022年，这一预测是基于对这两年经济增长放缓的预测。
国际货币基金组织的修正是基于“消费者支出的惊人弹性”，特别是在欧洲和美国，以及能源成本的下降。亚洲大国的重新开放是修订展望时提到的另一个因素。
根据国际货币基金组织的数据，通货膨胀率将从去年的8.8%下降到今年的6.6%，并在2024年进一步下降到4.3%。该组织指出，这仍高于大流行前3.5%的全球平均水平。
国际货币基金组织表示，尽管全球经济增长面临的风险已经放缓，但这些风险远非不存在，并指出公共卫生健康风险、地缘政治冲突升级以及融资成本上升都是这些风险之一。
最新数据公布后，油价下跌，受本周将宣布更多加息预期以及产能大国石油出口反弹的拖累。
IMF的报告虽然预测油价将走低，但可能会对投资者产生鼓舞作用，因为报告对经济增长持乐观态度，尽管报告预测今明两年油价将走低。
寿琳玲 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
IMF Injects Optimism Into Oil Markets
The International Monetary Fund has added a dose of optimism to oil markets by revising its global economic growth outlook to reflect a lowered risk of a slowdown.
In its latest monthly World Economic Outlook, the lender said that it expected inflation to peak and the global economy to grow by 2.9% this year. While this would be a decline from a growth rate of 3.4% estimated for 2022, it is an upward revision from last month’s growth projection of 2.7%.
It also said that oil prices are set to be lower both this year and next than in 2022, a prediction based on the forecast of lower economic growth in both years.
The IMF based its revision on what it said was surprising resilience in consumer spending, notably in Europe and the United States, and lower energy costs. The reopening of the biggest country In Asia was another factor cited in the revised outlook.
Inflation, according to the IMF would decline from 8.8% last year to 6.6% this year, and further to 4.3% in 2024. This would still leave it higher than the pre-pandemic global average of 3.5%, the Fund noted.
Although risks for global economic growth have moderated, the IMF said they are far from non-existent and went on to cite the risk of the public health sanitation , an escalation of the war, and higher financing costs among these risks.
Oil prices slipped following the publication of the update, weighed down by expectations of more rate hikes due to be announced this week and by resilient oil exports.
The IMF’s report, although predicting lower oil prices, might have an invigorating effect on them because of the optimistic growth note it struck, even if it featured a prediction for lower oil prices this year and next.
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