自2022年3月8日的高点以来，经通货膨胀调整后的油价目前已在一年内下滑了40%
加息和对美国经济可能放缓的担忧正在拉低油价
尽管担心利率上升，许多大型石油交易商预计原油价格将在2023年下半年重新爬升至100美元
据油价网3月11日报道，自从去年年底抹去油价涨幅以来，油价一直陷于紧张的区间。
在去年的大部分时间里，对重大石油供应冲击的担忧决定了市场情绪和交易者的心理定位。但即使在欧盟禁运以及原油和石油产品的价格上限生效后，油价也没有飙升。
产能大国正在将其石油出口转向亚洲，而欧洲正在从中东、亚洲和美国购买更多原油和产品。
然而，这个几十年来全球石油贸易中最重要的转变之一，并没有成为最近几周石油市场的关键驱动力。
关键驱动力是经济。世界上最大的两个经济体的通货膨胀、制造业、就业和商业活动数据，是现在石油期货市场的主要驱动力。
美联储正在密切关注美国的每一个经济数据点，以衡量是加快还是放慢加息步伐。更强劲的美国经济数据和仍然很高的通货膨胀率可能促使美联储比最初预期提高更高利率，这也大幅提升未来几个月出现实质性放缓甚至衰退的可能性。
另一方面，市场——包括石油期货市场——正在密切关注亚洲的经济趋势，市场已经从近三年的封锁中重新开放，预计今年的经济增长和石油消费将出现反弹。
这两股对立的经济力量目前正将石油市场拉向相反的方向，使价格停留在每桶布伦特80美元至85美元的狭窄范围。
盛宝银行本周在周五的美国就业报告前表示：“几个月来的区间波动，在供需相关消息平衡的情况下，市场可能会密切关注风险偏好的总体水平，这一点目前由FOMC及其对市场数据的密切关注决定。”
路透社的高级市场分析师John Kemp指出，自2022年3月8日的高点以来，油价在一年内已经下滑了40%，这是在地缘政治冲突发生几周之后。此外，前月合约的价格波动率已降至年化25%以下，而去年3月的波动率为88%。
加息和对美国经济可能放缓的担忧正在拉低油价。
OANDA美洲区高级市场分析师Ed Moya周四表示：“增长减速继续拖累原油价格，但如果对美国经济硬着陆的担忧得到缓解，WTI原油可能在每桶80美元以上找到落点。”
同时，对市场经济和石油需求反弹的预期也限制了下行空间。如果市场在重启后强劲反弹，考虑到全球库存低于五年平均水平，而且出现了实物原油市场收紧的迹象，价格可能突破近期的紧张区间。
世界上最大的一些石油实物交易商说，在美国经济软着陆的情况下，价格可能很快达到每桶90美元。
托克公司(Trafigura)的石油交易联席主管Ben Luckock在本周的CERAWeek能源会议上说，由于过去一年石油贸易的重大转变，该公司预计原油价格将开始上涨。
曹海斌 编译自 油价网
Will We See A Return Of Triple Digit Oil This Year?
Oil prices, adjusted for inflation, have now slumped by 40% in one year since March 8, 2022, high.
The rate hikes and concerns about a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy are pulling oil prices down.
Despite fears of rising interest rates, many large oil traders expect crude prices to creep back toward $100 in the second half of 2023.
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Oil prices have been stuck in a tight range since erasing the gains of the war at the end of last year.
For most of last year, fears of a major oil supply shock dictated market sentiment and the positioning of traders. But oil prices didn’t surge even after the EU embargoes and the G7 price caps on crude oil and petroleum products came into effect.
The largger producer is rerouting its oil exports to Asia, while Europe is buying more crude and products from the Middle East, Asia, and the United States.
Yet, one of the most significant shifts in global oil trade in decades has not been the key driving force in oil markets in recent weeks.
It’s the economy. Inflation, manufacturing, employment, and business activity data from the United States etc.– the world’s two largest economies – are the primary drivers of the oil futures market now.
The Fed is closely watching every economic data point in the United States to gauge whether to accelerate or slow the pace of interest rate hikes. Stronger U.S. economic data and still high inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates more than initially expected, raising the odds of a material slowdown and even recession in the coming months.
On the other hand, the markets – including the oil futures market – are closely watching the economic trends in Asia, which has reopened from almost three years of zero-Covid lockdowns and is expected to see a rebound in economic growth and oil consumption this year.
These two opposing economic forces are currently pulling the oil market in opposite directions, leaving prices stuck in a narrow $80-$85 range per barrel Brent.
“Rangebound for months and in no hurry to change that amid a balanced flow of supply and demand related news, the market is likely to pay close attention to the general level of risk appetite which is currently being dictated by the FOMC and its close attention to incoming data,” Saxo Bank said this week just before Friday’s U.S. jobs report.
Oil prices, adjusted for inflation, have now slumped by 40% in one year since March 8, 2022, high, weeks after the war, Reuters’ senior market analyst John Kemp notes. Moreover, the price volatility in the front-month contract has dipped to an annualized rate of less than 25%, compared to 88% in March last year.
The rate hikes and concerns about a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy are pulling oil prices down.
“Decelerating growth continues to weigh on crude prices but if fears of a hard landing for the US economy are alleviated, WTI crude could find a home above the $80 a barrel,” Ed Moya, Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA, said on Thursday.
At the same time, expectations of a economic and oil demand rebound are limiting the downside. If the market rebounds strongly after the reopening, prices could break above the recent tight range, considering that global inventories are below the five-year average and signs are emerging of a tighter physical crude market.
In a soft landing for the U.S. economy, prices could soon hit $90 per barrel, some of the world’s biggest physical traders of oil say.
Trafigura expects prices to start rising due to the major shifts in oil trade over the past year, its co-head of oil trading Ben Luckock said at the CERAWeek energy conference this week.
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