EIA预测今明两年全球液体燃料产量将超过需求

据钻机地带3月10日报道，根据美国能源信息署（EIA）最新的《短期能源展望》（STEO），预计2023年和2024年全球液体燃料产量将超过需求。

在本周发布的STEO中，EIA预测今年全球总产量将达到1.0147亿桶/天，明年将达到1.032亿桶/天。STEO预计2023年全球总消费量将达到1.009亿桶/天，2024年将达到1.0269亿桶/天。

按季度划分，最新的STEO预计今年第一季度全球总产量将达到1.0073亿桶/天，第二季度为1.0128亿桶/天，第三季度为1.0192亿桶/天，第四季度为1.0193亿桶/天，2024年第一季度为1.0227亿桶/天，第二季度为1.0285亿桶/天，第三季度为1.0343亿桶/天，第四季度为1.0353亿桶/天。

最新的STEO预计，2023年第一季度全球总消费量将为9994万桶/天，第二季度为1.006亿桶/天，第三季度为1.0147亿桶/天、第四季度为1.0156亿桶/天、明年第一季度为1.0204亿桶/每天，第二季度为1.0231亿桶/天，第三季度为1.0325亿桶/天，第四季度为1.0314亿桶/天。

EIA在3月份的STEO中概述称，2022年全球石油总产量和消费量分别为9986万桶/天和9942万桶/天。将全球总产量稳固在9995万桶/天，全球总消费量为9936万桶/天的2月份STEO中，EIA预计2023年全球总产量将达到1.011亿桶/天，2024年将达到1.0261亿桶/天。预计2023年世界总消费量将达到1.0047亿桶/天，2024年将达到1.0226亿桶/天。

EIA在其最新的STEO中表示，“在全球范围内，我们预测的液体燃料消费量从2022年的日均9940万桶增加到2023年的1.009亿桶，比上个月的预期高出40万桶”。

EIA补充道，较高的消费预测主要受全球经济增长上调的影响。预计印度的消费量将增加20万桶/天，其他非经合组织国家的消费量将日均增加50万桶。

EIA继续说道，非经合组织国家的这一增长抵消了2023年经合组织国家几乎没有消费增长。由于通货膨胀的影响继续限制国内生产总值和石油需求增长，经合组织的消费量基本保持不变。我们预测，2024年全球液体燃料消耗量将增加180万桶/天，非经合组织国家将占160万桶的增长。

EIA在最新的STEO中表示，2022年全球液体燃料日均产量约为1亿桶，预测2023年和2024年日均产量将增加160万桶。尽管上调了对全球液体燃料消费的预测，但仍预计，随着全球石油产量继续超过消费，全球石油库存将在预测期内持续增加。

国际能源署（IEA）在2月发布的最新石油市场报告中表示，2023年全球石油需求将增加200万桶/天，达到1.019亿桶/天。IEA在报告中指出，亚太地区将主导着经济增长前景。

在石油供应方面，IEA在报告中表示，受非OPEC+的推动，预计2023年全球日产量将增长120万桶。

郝芬 译自 钻机地带

原文如下：

Global Liquid Fuel Production to Outpace Demand

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global liquid fuel production to outpace demand in 2023 and 2024, according to its latest short term energy outlook (STEO).

In the STEO, which was released this week, the EIA projects that total world production will hit 101.47 million barrels per day this year and 103.02 million barrels per day next year. The STEO expects total world consumption to come in at 100.90 million barrels per day in 2023 and 102.69 million barrels per day in 2024.

Broken down quarterly, the latest STEO expects total world production to hit 100.73 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 101.28 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.92 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 101.93 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 102.27 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 102.85 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 103.43 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 103.53 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

The latest STEO anticipates that total world consumption will be 99.94 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2023, 100.60 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.47 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 101.56 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 102.04 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 102.31 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 103.25 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 103.14 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

The EIA’s March STEO outlined that 2022 total world production and total world consumption was 99.86 million barrels per day and 99.42 million barrels per day, respectively. In its February STEO, which pegged total world production at 99.95 million barrels per day and total world consumption at 99.36 million barrels per day, the EIA projected that total world production would hit 101.10 million barrels per day in 2023 and 102.61 million barrels per day in 2024. Total world consumption was projected to hit 100.47 million barrels per day in 2023 and 102.26 million barrels per day in 2024 in that STEO.

“Globally, liquid fuels consumption in our forecast increases from an average of 99.4 million barrels per day in 2022 to 100.9 million barrels per day in 2023, which is 0.4 million barrels per day higher than in last month’s outlook,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.

“The higher consumption forecast is primarily driven by upward revisions to global economic growth. We forecast consumption in India to increase by 0.2 million barrels per day and other non-OECD consumption to grow by 0.5 million barrels per day on average,” the EIA added.

“This growth in non-OECD countries counteracts almost no consumption growth among OECD countries in 2023. OECD consumption remains largely unchanged as the effects of inflation continue to limit GDP and oil demand growth. We forecast global liquids fuel consumption will grow by an additional 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024, and non-OECD countries will account for 1.6 million barrels per day of the growth,” the EIA continued.

In the latest STEO, the EIA said “world liquid fuels production averaged about 100 million barrels per day in 2022, and we forecast it will rise by an average of 1.6 million barrels per day in both 2023 and 2024”.

“Despite upward revisions to increasing our forecast of global liquid fuels consumption, we still expect consistent global oil inventory builds over the forecast period as global oil production continues to outpace consumption,” the EIA stated in the STEO.

In its latest oil market report, which was released in February, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that global oil demand is set to rise by two million barrels per day in 2023 to 101.9 million barrels per day. The IEA noted in the report that the Asia-Pacific region dominates the growth outlook.

Looking at oil supply, the IEA stated in the report it expects global output to grow 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023, “driven by non-OPEC+”.