据钻机地带3月9日报道， 美国能源信息管理局（EIA）在本周发布的最新《短期能源展望》（STEO）中下调了2023年布伦特和西得克萨斯中质油（WTI）价格预测。
根据3月份的STEO，EIA目前预计今年布伦特原油现货均价为每桶82.95美元，WTI现货均价为每桶77.10美元。在2月初发布的上一份STEO中，EIA预计2023年布伦特现货均价为每桶83.63美元，WTI现货均价为每桶77.84美元。
3月和2月的STEO对2024年油价的预测相同。他们都预测，明年布伦特原油和WTI原油的现货均价分别为每桶77.57美元和71.57美元。
EIA在其最新的STEO中表示，预计布伦特原油现货均价将从2023年第二季度的每桶84美元降至第四季度的每桶81美元，然后2024年降至每桶78美元。
EIA在STEO报告中补充称，尽管预计全球石油库存将在整个预测期内增加，但由于炼油利润率上升，炼油厂对原油的高需求将在今年第二季度限制原油价格的下行压力，因为炼油商将维持高水平的原油投入，以最大限度地提高馏分燃料产量。
EIA在其最新的STEO中指出，预计2023年全球石油和液体燃料的日均产量将达到1.015亿桶，该组织预计这一产量将比2022年增加160万桶。EIA在3月份的STEO中表示，预计到2023年，全球液体燃料消费量将比2022年增加150万桶/天。该组织目前预计，2023年全球消费量将达到1.009亿桶/天。
其他机构预测
而在本周发给钻机地带的一份油价展望报告中，惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究下调了2023年布伦特原油价格预测。根据该公司的报告，惠誉解决方案目前预计今年布伦特原油均价为每桶90美元。该公司在2月初发送给钻机地带的上一份油价展望报告显示，该公司预计今年布伦特原油均价为每桶95美元。
惠誉解决方案的两份报告还包括彭博共识(Bloomberg Consensus)， 惠誉解决方案是该报告的贡献者之一。最新报告中的彭博共识认为，布伦特原油今年将达到每桶88美元，而上一份报告中彭博共识认为，2023年布伦特原油将达到每桶87.3美元。
在本周发给钻机地带的另一份报告中，渣打银行(Standard Chartered)维持了今年布伦特原油价格每桶91美元的预测。根据渣打银行今年2月和1月发送给钻机地带的报告显示，2023年布伦特原油价格预测相同。
在撰写本文时，布伦特原油价格为每桶82.52美元，WTI价格为每桶76.51美元。
到目前为止，布伦特原油2023年的峰值收于1月23日，为每桶88.19美元，而该商品2023年迄今为止的最低收于1月4日，为每桶77.84美元。到目前为止，2023年WTI的峰值收盘价是在1月26日，每桶87.47美元，2023年WTI的最低收盘价是在1月4日，每桶72.84美元。
郝芬 译自 钻机地带
原文如下：
USA EIA Cuts 2023 Oil Price Forecasts
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price forecasts for 2023 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released this week.
According to the March STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $82.95 per barrel and the WTI spot price averaging $77.10 per barrel this year. In its previous STEO, which was released at the start of February, the EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $83.63 per barrel and that the WTI spot price would average $77.84 per barrel in 2023.
The March and February STEOs had identical oil price forecasts for 2024. They both saw the Brent spot price averaging $77.57 per barrel and the WTI spot price averaging $71.57 per barrel next year.
“We expect that the Brent crude oil spot price will fall from an average of $84 per barrel in the second quarter of 2023 to $81 per barrel in 4Q23, and then average $78 per barrel in 2024,” the EIA stated in its latest STEO.
“Although we expect global oil inventories will build throughout the forecast period, we expect that high demand for crude oil from refineries because of elevated refining margins will limit downward pressure on crude oil prices through 2Q23 as refiners maintain high levels of crude oil inputs to maximize distillate fuel production,” the EIA added in the STEO.
“It was a key supplier of distillate fuel to Europe, and changes in distillate trade flows as Europe reduced imports of distillate from the largger producer in recent months have kept distillate fuel margins well-above five-year averages. However, we forecast that increasing global oil inventories will contribute to falling crude oil prices beginning in 3Q23,” the EIA continued.
In its latest STEO, the EIA noted that it expects global oil and liquid fuels production will average 101.5 million barrels per day in 2023, which the organization outlined would be up 1.6 million barrels per day from 2022. The EIA stated in its March STEO that it expects global liquid fuels consumption to increase by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2023 from 2022. The organization is currently projecting total world consumption of 100.90 million barrels per day in 2023.
Fitch Solutions, Standard Chartered, Current Price
In an oil price outlook report sent to Rigzone this week, Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research lowered its Brent oil price forecast for 2023. According to the company’s report, Fitch Solutions now sees Brent averaging $90 per barrel this year. The company’s previous oil price outlook report, which was sent to Rigzone at the start of February, showed that the company expected Brent to average $95 per barrel in 2023.
Both Fitch Solutions reports also included a Bloomberg Consensus, which Fitch Solutions is a contributor to. The Bloomberg Consensus in the latest report saw Brent coming in at $88 per barrel this year, while the Bloomberg Consensus in the previous report saw Brent at $87.3 per barrel in 2023.
In a separate report sent to Rigzone this week, Standard Chartered maintained its Brent oil price forecast of $91 per barrel for this year. Standard Chartered reports sent to Rigzone in February and January this year showed the same Brent price projection for 2023.
At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil stood at $82.52 per barrel and the price of WTI stood at $76.51 per barrel.
The 2023 Brent peak close, so far, was seen on January 23, at $88.19 per barrel, while the commodity’s lowest 2023 close, so far, was seen on January 4, at $77.84 per barrel. The 2023 WTI peak close, so far, was on January 26, at $87.47 per barrel, and the lowest 2023 WTI close, so far, was seen on January 4, at $72.84 per barrel.
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