世界迫切需要更多石油和天然气投资

尽管对化石燃料的需求仍然很高，而且还在攀升，但全球石油和天然气项目的投资却低得令人担忧

全球油田产量的平均递减率约为6%，这意味着油气公司必须投资新项目才能维持目前的产量水平

石油和天然气供应的中断凸显了全球能源系统的脆弱性，在能源安全之前优先考虑可持续性可能是未来面临的一个真正问题

据油价网2023年3月11日报道，尽管去年高油价推动能源公司利润飙升，但这些利润几乎没有再投资石油和天然气业务。由于石油和天然气公司认识到未来能源转型的必然性，许多油气公司正在向他们的清洁能源业务投入资金，并将资金返还给股东。然而，能源专家担心，在化石燃料需求旺盛且不断攀升之际，石油和天然气项目投资不足可能会威胁到世界能源安全。

沙特石油巨头沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司（沙特阿美）首席执行官阿明·纳赛尔日前告诉媒体消息人士，“石油行业上游甚至下游的投资仍然持续不足”。国际能源署（IEA）的最新报告谈到了全球1.017亿桶原油的需求——随着市场的开放和航空业的发展，今年全球原油日需求量将从2022年的1亿桶增加近200万桶，而全球航空业至今尚未恢复到疫情前的水平。

纳赛尔解释说，“航空业有很大的增长潜力”。纳赛尔补充说：“随着市场开放和投资的缺乏，在确保市场上有足够的供应方面，从中长期来看肯定会有一个问题。”纳赛尔还表示，尽管美国大量的燃料供应为油价下跌提供了理由，但油气钻探活动的放缓可能会威胁到未来的供应。

纳赛尔是最近一位对油气行业投资不足表示担忧的能源专家。上游投资从2014年的大约7000亿美元下降到今天的3700亿至4000亿美元。虽然这反映了能源行业的扩张，包括可替代的清洁能源形式，并逐渐远离化石燃料，但考虑到对石油和天然气的持续高需求，这个投资数是非常低的。

此外，人们还担心对最终将枯竭的成熟油田的持续依赖。全球油田产量的平均递减率约为6%，这意味着油气公司需要增加投资弥补生产率来确保预期的产量。解决这一问题的方法之一是投资其他产油区的勘探和开发，以建立新的项目。但由于许多公司不愿投资可能需要几十年才能起步的新业务，世界可能最终不得不面临石油和天然气供应不足的局面。

投资不足的问题在去年举行的阿布扎比国际石油展览会和会议(ADIPEC)上得到了解决，专家们讨论了能源安全和可持续性之间的平衡。许多行业领袖强调了他们的担忧，即一些人似乎为了可持续性而牺牲能源安全，导致石油和天然气领域的投资严重不足。与会的许多人士认为投资不足是鲁莽的，这表明许多企业追随政策制定者和公众情绪，他们一直在推动“目前显得为时过早的”能源转型。

随着能源安全成为讨论的中心，特别是在地缘政治冲突爆发以及随后对能源的制裁之后，ADIPEC讨论了远离石油和天然气是否为时过早，因为许多可再生能源项目仍处于萌芽阶段，化石燃料和绿色替代品的供需之间存在潜在差距。ADIPEC的行业领袖认为，在政府、活动家、投资者和银行的压力下，能源供应持续而严重的投资不足是当前能源危机的主要刺激因素，对全球能源安全构成巨大威胁。

在石油和天然气公司经历丰厚收益的一年之后，上述情况可能会让许多人感到震惊。能源公司似乎不可避免地将资金投入运营，以确保未来的供应。然而，随着脱碳的压力越来越大，政策鼓励加大对绿色能源的投资，加上多项减税和激励措施来推动这一议程，许多石油和天然气公司选择将资金投资到其他地方。

摩根大通的研究预测，到2030年，全球石油支出将不足4000亿美元。虽然这些支出的大部分将流向非化石燃料，但摩根大通的研究表明，无论是石油和天然气还是替代能源，都不会以满足日益增长的全球需求所需的速度增长，这将导致未来几年更多的能源危机。摩根大通全球能源战略主管克里斯蒂安·马利克在关注化石燃料支出不足时表示：“与可再生能源相比，石油行业相对缺乏资金，但有大量的项目和潜在供应可供开发。”他补充说，由于未来十年预期的高需求，“石油是我们认为最需要增量投资的领域，无论是维持现有的生产基础，还是产量增长；因为我们看到2030年全球的石油需求将比2019年的水平日均高出710万桶，目前的支出水平意味着到2030年全球石油需求的日均缺口为70万桶。”

尽管利润丰厚，对石油和天然气的需求持续高涨，而且目前面临的能源危机(当欧洲能源被移除时，已经暴露出严重的供应短缺)，但化石燃料的投资仍然严重不足。虽然这可能被视为绿色转型的积极因素，但专家们担心，到化石燃料项目减少时，将没有足够的绿色能源来填补供需缺口，从而导致未来更大的能源不安全和更多的能源危机。

李峻 编译自 油价网 

原文如下： 

The World Desperately Needs More Oil And Gas Investment

·     While demand for fossil fuels remains high and is climbing, investment in oil and gas projects around the world is worryingly low.

·     The average global decline rate of oilfields is around 6%, which means oil and gas companies have to invest in new projects simply to maintain production levels.

·     Disruptions in oil and gas supplies have highlighted how vulnerable the global energy system is, and prioritizing sustainability over energy security could be a real problem in the future.

Despite high oil prices sending energy company profits soaring over the last year, little of those profits have been reinvested in the oil and gas business. As oil and gas companies acknowledge the inevitability of an energy transition in the future, many are pumping funds into their clean energy business and returning money to shareholders. However, energy experts are concerned that underinvestment in oil and gas could threaten the world’s energy security at a time when the demand for fossil fuels is high and climbing. 

The CEO of Saudi Arabia’s oil giant Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, told media sources this month that “A persistent underinvestment in oil upstream and even downstream is still there. The latest report from the IEA talks about a demand of 101.7 million barrels — going from 100 million barrels in 2022 to almost 2 million barrels more with market opening up and the aviation industry,” which has not yet returned to pre-Covid levels.

Nasser explained, “There is a lot of potential for growth in aviation,” adding, “And with market's opening up and the lack of investment, there is definitely a concern in the mid-to-long term in terms of making sure there is adequate supplies in the market.” He also suggested that while substantial U.S. fuel supplies have supported a fall in oil prices, the slowing of drilling activities could threaten the future supply. 

Nasser is the latest of several energy experts to state their concern about underinvestment in the industry. Upstream spending has fallen from around $700 billion in 2014 to between $370 to $400 billion today. While this reflects the expansion of the energy industry to include alternative cleaner forms of energy and a gradual move away from fossil fuels, this is very low considering the continued high demand for oil and gas. 

There is also a concern about the ongoing reliance on mature oil fields, which will eventually dry up. The average global decline rate of oilfields is around 6%, meaning companies need to offset their production rate to ensure the intended output. One way to address this is to invest in exploration and development in other oil regions to establish new projects. But with many companies unwilling to invest in new operations that could take decades to get off the ground, the world may have to eventually face an undersupply of oil and gas. 

The issue of underinvestment was addressed last year at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference (ADIPEC), where experts discussed the balance between energy security and sustainability. Many industry leaders highlighted the concern that energy security had been seemingly sacrificed by some for sustainability, resulting in significant underinvestment in oil and gas. Many at the conference viewed the underinvestment as reckless, suggesting many firms have followed policymakers and public sentiment that have been pushing a premature energy transition. 

With energy security at the center of the discussion, particularly following the war and subsequent sanctions on energy, the ADIPEC debated whether the move away from oil and gas is coming too soon, with many renewable energy projects still in the nascent stage and a potential gap between supply and demand of both fossil fuels and green alternatives. Industry leaders at ADIPEC determined that the persistent and severe underinvestment in energy supply, driven by pressure from governments, activists, investors, and banks, has been a major stimulus for the current energy crisis and represents a huge threat to global energy security.  

This may come as a shock to many in the wake of a year of high profits for oil and gas companies. It seemed inevitable that energy firms would pump funds back into operations to ensure the future supply. However, with greater pressures to decarbonize and policies encouraging greater investment in green energy – with several tax cuts and incentives to push this agenda, many oil and gas firms have chosen to invest their money elsewhere.

Research by JP Morgan predicts a $400 billion oil underspend to 2030. And while much of this spending will, instead, go towards non-fossil fuels, the firm’s research demonstrates that neither oil and gas nor alternative energy will grow at the rate needed to meet the growing global demand, resulting in more energy crises in the coming years. Focusing on the fossil fuels underspend, Christyan Malek, JP Morgan's Global Head of Energy Strategy stated, “In contrast with renewables, the oil industry is comparatively starved of capital but with an abundance of projects and potential supply to be tapped into.” He added that due to the anticipated high demand over the next decade, “oil is really where we see the greatest need for incremental investment, both in sustaining the existing production base, as well as growing it, as we see 2030 demand 7.1 million bpd above 2019 levels, with current spending levels implying a 700,000-bpd average gap to 2030.” 

Despite high profits, the ongoing high demand for oil and gas, and the current energy crisis – which has revealed severe supply shortages when Europe energy is removed – there continues to be significant underinvestment in fossil fuels. While this could be seen as positive for the green transition, experts fear that there will not be enough green energy to fill the gap in supply and demand by the time that fossil fuel projects wane, resulting in greater energy insecurity and more energy crises in the future.