据管道&天然气杂志网3月7日报道，周二美国能源信息署（EIA）在其《短期能源展望》（STEO）中表示，2023年美国天然气产量将升至历史新高，而需求将下降。
据美国能源部统计部门预计，2023年干气产量将从2022年创纪录的980.9亿立方英尺/日增至1006.7亿立方英尺/日，2024年将增至1016.9亿立方英尺/日。
EIA还预测，2023年和2024年的国内天然气消耗量将从2022年创纪录的885.4亿立方英尺/日降至864亿立方英尺/日和860.6亿立方英尺/日。
如果不出意外的话，2024年将是2015年以来产量首次连续四年增长。这也将是2006年以来需求首次连续两年下降。
EIA预计2023年第一季度的平均天然气消耗量为990亿立方英尺/天，是自2018年以来第一季度的最低值。
EIA表示，这是因为1月和2月的天气是有记录以来最热的，使得取暖用天然气的需求保持在较低水平。
2023年的最新预测高于EIA在2月份预测的1002.7亿立方英尺/天的供应，但低于2月份预测的870.4亿立方英尺/天的需求。
该机构预测，2023年美国液化天然气日均出口量将达到120.7亿立方英尺，2024年将达到127.3亿立方英尺，高于2022年创纪录的105.9亿立方英尺。
2023年LNG的预测高于2月份EIA预测的117.8亿立方英尺/天。
EIA预计，随着天然气需求的缓解和发电企业煤炭燃烧的减少，化石燃料的二氧化碳排放量将从2022年的49.76亿吨下降到2023年的47.99亿吨，然后随着该国燃烧更多的石油，2024年将上升到48.29亿吨。
郝芬 译自 管道&天然气杂志网
原文如下：
EIA: US Natural Gas Output to Hit Record High in 2023, Demand to Fall
U.S. natural gas production will rise to a record high in 2023 while demand will fall, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.
The statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy projected dry gas production would rise to 100.67 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023 and 101.69 Bcf/d in 2024 from a record 98.09 Bcf/d in 2022.
The EIA also projected domestic gas consumption would fall to 86.40 Bcf/d in 2023 and 86.06 Bcf/d in 2024 from a record 88.54 Bcf/d in 2022.
If correct, 2024 would be the first time since 2015 that output rises for four years in a row. It would also be the first-time demand declines for two years in a row since 2006.
The EIA projected gas consumption would average 99 Bcf/d in the first quarter of 2023, the least for any first quarter since 2018.
That is because the weather in January and February was among the warmest on record, the EIA said, keeping demand for gas for heating low.
The latest projections for 2023 were higher than the EIA's February forecast of 100.27 Bcf/d for supply, but lower than its February forecast of 87.04 Bcf/d for demand.
The agency forecast that average U.S. LNG exports would reach 12.07 Bcf/d in 2023 and 12.73 Bcf/d in 2024, up from a record 10.59 Bcf/d in 2022.
That 2023 LNG forecast was higher than the 11.78 Bcf/d EIA forecast in February.
As gas demand eases and power producers burn less coal, the EIA projected that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels would fall from 4.976 billion tonnes in 2022 to 4.799 billion tonnes in 2023 before rising to 4.829 billion tonnes in 2024 as the country burns more oil.
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