据彭博新闻社2023年3月20日报道，受对冲基金青睐的交易价差大幅下跌，同时银行业动荡动摇了整个市场的信心，时下油价徘徊在15个月低点附近。
周一布伦特原油12月对12月价差收窄至2021年12月以来的最低水平，表明近期对石油需求前景减弱的担忧产生了较长期影响。就连最热衷看涨原油价格的高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)也不再预测今年原油价格将达到每桶100美元。
高盛集团还下调了对未来12个月布伦特原油价格的预测，原因是对近期经济衰退的担忧加剧，以及投资者资金外流大幅压低了原油价格。
帝国商业银行私人财富管理高级能源交易员丽贝卡·巴宾表示：“过去一周，投资者心理受到了伤害，只有市场出现企稳，投资者才会重拾信心。”“由于我们本周进入美联储，预计将出现更多波动和低信心交易。”
自去年底以来，油价一直在狭窄的通道中徘徊。上周，由于银行业危机放大了全球经济衰退的担忧，以及产能大国原油供应的韧性，油价终于跌破低位。油价暴跌增加了欧佩克+干预市场的可能性，尽管有人猜测该石油出口国组织目前将保持观望。
李峻 编译自 彭博新闻社
原文如下：
Oil Near 2021 Lows as Banking Crisis Boosts Recession Fears
Oil hovered around 15-month lows as a favored spread for hedge funds to trade plunged with banking turmoil shaking confidence across markets.
Brent’s December-December spread narrowed on Monday to its weakest level since Dec. 2021, suggesting a longer-term impact from recent fears of a diminished demand outlook. Even crude’s most ardent bull, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., no longer forecasts the commodity to reach $100 a barrel this year.
The bank lowered its Brent projection for the 12 months ahead as rising near-term recession concerns and an exodus of investor flows sharply lowered crude prices.
“Investor psyche has been damaged over the past week and it is going to take the emergence of a market stability to draw investors back to the fold,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. “Expect more volatility and low- conviction trading as we head into the Fed this week”
After being stuck in a narrow channel since the end of last year, oil prices broke lower last week as the banking crisis magnified global recession fears and the resilience in the largger producer crude flows. The price slump has raised the prospect of intervention from OPEC+, though there’s speculation the group will stay on the sidelines for now.
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