美国炼油商为何正在增加生物燃料生产

炼油商正在投资柴油和可再生燃料等高价值馏分油，由于汽油需求下降，这些产品的利润越来越高

由于得克萨斯州的页岩革命放缓，美国留下了大量准备就绪、观望等待的炼油产能

由于其成熟的炼油能力，美国有潜力成为全球可持续航空燃料和可再生柴油的主要出口国

据油价网2023年3月30日报道，没有人知道未来十年究竟会有多少电动汽车上路，但有一件事是肯定的：数量肯定会很多。准确的普及速度取决于很多因素，从电动汽车成本的下降和技术的改进，到政策支持和对制造商和司机的激励。我们所知道的是，要在本世纪中叶前实现净零排放，到2030年前全球需要超过3亿辆电动汽车，而且60%的新车销售将必须是电动车型。

实际上，在美国，事实很可能会略低于这些数字。根据标普全球移动(S&P Global Mobility)的预测，到2030年前，美国的电动汽车销量可能会达到乘用车总销量的40%，更乐观的预测是，到2030年前，电动汽车销量将超过50%。虽然这并不能让我们在2050年前实现零排放，但它标志着当前电动汽车市场的巨大扩张。根据国际能源署(International Energy Agency)公布的数据，美国(以及世界各地)的电动汽车销量已经呈急剧上升趋势，2020年至2021年期间销量几乎翻了一番。

由于需求从汽车燃料转向电力，这种扩张将对能源经济产生广泛影响。这意味着，国内汽车燃料生产商要么进化，要么消亡。行业分析师预测，多数炼油商将选择越来越多地将生产重点放在馏分油而非燃料上。更具体地说，他们正在寻求“最大限度地生产用于出口的柴油和生物燃料”。

特别是柴油，由于全球柴油库存下降，需求飙升，柴油正变得越来越有吸引力。去年，柴油的利润率达到每桶70美元以上的峰值，是同期汽油利润率的两倍多。当时，美国炼油厂每天出口157万桶馏分燃料，创历史新高。

自那个峰值以来，柴油市场已大幅降温——目前馏分油利润率约为每桶31.35美元——但利润率仍接近5年平均水平的两倍。据路透社报道，这将激励政府加大对柴油生产(以及其他高价值馏分油)的投资，这将继续影响未来几年炼油行业的格局。

大多数行业专家认为，这种投资是一种比继续投资汽油生产更安全的长期战略。在美国，汽油需求已经滞后了相当长一段时间，因为汽油动力汽车的燃油效率提高了，路上行驶的电动汽车数量也迅速增加。另一方面，到2045年前，馏分油需求可能会继续增长32%，主要是由于柴油和航空燃料需求的增加。

生物燃料和生物柴油的需求也在增长。炼油商也在顺应这一趋势。据路透社报道，“马拉松石油公司和菲利普斯66等炼油商一直在改造炼油厂，以生产可再生柴油和可持续航空燃料等生物燃料。”

虽然美国在清洁能源支出和生产方面落后于世界上大多数最强大的经济体，但在生物燃料出口方面，美国处于独特的领先地位。随着页岩革命在得克萨斯州的放缓，美国已经准备好了大量的炼油产能，等待下一步的发展。这意味着美国可以在极短的时间内轻松成为世界上最大的可持续航空燃料和可再生柴油出口国。 

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Why U.S. Refiners Are Ramping Up Biofuel Production

·     Refiners are investing in high-value distillates such as diesel and renewable fuels, which are becoming more profitable as gasoline demand declines.

·     As the shale revolution has slowed down in Texas, the country is left with tons of refining capacity ready and waiting for the next step.

·     The U.S. has the potential to become a major exporter of sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel thanks to its ready refining capacity.

No one knows exactly how many electric vehicles will hit the road in the coming decade, but one thing is certain: it’s going to be a lot. The precise rate of uptake depends on a lot of factors, from falling EV costs and improved technologies to policy support and incentives for manufacturers as well as drivers. What we do know is that reaching net zero emissions by mid-century will require an electric car fleet of over 300 million vehicles by 2030, and 60% of new car sales will have to be electric models. 

In reality, we’ll most likely fall a little short of those numbers in the United States. According to projections from S&P Global Mobility, electric vehicle sales in the United States could reach 40 percent of total passenger car sales by 2030, and more optimistic projections foresee electric vehicle sales surpassing 50 percent by 2030. While this won’t quite get us to net zero by 2050, it marks a huge expansion of the current EV market. Already, electric vehicle sales are on a sharp upward trend in the United States (and around the world), with sales nearly doubling between 2020 and 2021, according to figures from the International Energy Agency. 

This expansion is going to have widespread implications for the energy economy as demand shifts away from motor fuels toward electricity. This means that domestic motor fuel producers are going to have to evolve – or die. Industry analysts are predicting that most refiners will opt to increasingly focus their production on distillates rather than fuel, as traditional combustion engines begin to go the way of the dodo. More specifically, they are looking to “maximize diesel and biofuels production for exports.”

Diesel, in particular, is becoming more and more appealing, as global diesel inventories have declined and demand has spiked. Last year, diesel profit margins peaked at over $70 a barrel, more than double the profit margins of gasoline in the same time frame. At that time, United States refiners were exporting 1.57 million barrels per day of distillate fuel – an all-time record. 

The market for diesel has cooled considerably since that peak – distillate profit margins are now around $31.35 a barrel – but margins are still nearly double their five-year average. According to reporting from Reuters, this will incentivize increased investment into diesel production (as well as other high-value distillates) in the current term, which will continue to influence the shape of the refining industry for years to come. 

Most industry experts see this investment as a much safer long-term strategy than continuing to invest in gasoline production. Gasoline demand has already been lagging for quite some time now in the United States as fuel efficiency has increased in gas-powered cars, and the number of electric cars on the road has rapidly expanded. Distillate demand, on the other hand, will likely continue to grow 32% by 2045, mostly led by an increased need for both diesel and jet fuel. 

Demand for biofuel and biodiesel, too, is on a growth trajectory. Refiners are leaning into this trend as well. According to Reuters, “oil refiners such as Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 have been retrofitting oil refineries to produce biofuels such as renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel.” 

While the United States is lagging behind most of the world’s strongest economies in terms of clean energy spending and production, it is uniquely positioned to lead the pack in terms of biofuels exports. As the shale revolution has slowed down in Texas, the country is left with tons of refining capacity ready and waiting for the next step. This means that the United States could easily become the world’s largest exporter of sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel in a remarkably short time span.