据钻机地带3月28日报道，渣打银行(Standard Chartered)分析师在上周晚些时候发给Rigzone的一份报告中透露，渣打的原油基金经理定位指数（SC Oil Positioning Index）出现了六年来最大的单周跌幅。
根据报告，西得克萨斯中质油(WTI) NYMEX下跌36.0点至-67.6点，WTI ICE下跌17.7点至-96.5点，布伦特NYMEX下跌17.3点至2.4点，布伦特ICE下跌28.9点至-27.6点。报告强调，渣打原油综合仓位指数下跌41.6点，至-67.0。
渣打银行分析师还透露，他们的汽油仓位指数20个月来首次转为负值，下降36.4至-6.6，他们在报告中指出，他们认为目前在石油上的仓位已经足够做空，可以看涨油价。
分析师在报告中表示：“γ效应在当前价格上的逆转，应该也会支持短期走高。”
渣打银行在其最新报告中指出，美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)公布了最后一批积压的仓位数据，这些数据是由于第三方数据提供商遭受网络攻击而产生的。
在这份结合了CFTC数据和洲际交易所(Intercontinental Exchange)同等数据的报告中，分析师们指出，“原油和汽油出现大量抛售，同时资金迅速转向贵金属”。
“基金经理在截至3月14日的一周内净抛售了四份主要的布伦特和WTI合约，总计1.2810亿桶。”分析师补充道。
“CFTC的下一份数据……将显示截至3月21日(价格跌至低点后一天)的头寸，并可能显示进一步的投机平仓。”分析师们继续表示。
分析师表示，根据渣打银行的牛熊指数，美国能源情报署(EIA)最新数据表现中性。
分析师表示：“尽管汽油和馏分油大幅减少，但原油库存较五年平均水平增加了335万桶，需求仍然疲弱，原油产量上升。”
“在今年早些时候出现大量负面数据之后，任何积极的数据都可能改善市场人气。现在EIA数据变得更加乐观，所需要的只是每周原油余额中的几个需求数据，以帮助减少超过五年平均水平的3365万桶原油盈余。”分析师补充道。
在3月21日发给Rigzone的另一份报告中，渣打银行分析师概述称，他们认为石油供需平衡“对价格的影响相对温和”。
分析师在报告中表示：“这并没有为近期油价跌至每桶70美元提供多少基本面支持，但也不支持今年油价持续飙升至每桶100美元以上。”
渣打银行在21日的报告书中预测，今年WTI的平均价格为每桶88美元，2004年为每桶95美元，2005年为每桶106美元。报告预计，布伦特原油2023年平均每桶91美元，2024年平均每桶98美元，2025年平均每桶109美元。
在上周发给Rigzone的一份声明中，伍德麦肯兹指出，“无论是从基数还是从高位来看”，亚洲恢复正常流动性预计将在2023年推动全球石油需求强劲复苏。
市场分析人士补充说：“这应该会使布伦特原油价格从目前的水平上升到2023年的平均每桶89.40美元。”
伍德麦肯兹在声明中表示，更乐观的情况是，2023年建筑活动增加将推动亚洲石油需求进一步上升，并强调这可能推动年度油价每桶上涨3至5美元。
高盛(Goldman Sachs) 3月6日在其网站上发布的一份声明中指出，根据高盛研究(Goldman Sachs Research)的一份报告，到今年年底，油价可能升至每桶107美元的高位，“这取决于欧佩克如何应对新兴市场状况”。
本月晚些时候，彭博社(Bloomberg)报道称，高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师“现在认为，布伦特原油价格在未来12个月将达到每桶94美元，2024年下半年将达到每桶97美元，此前为每桶100美元”。
寿琳玲 编译自 钻机地带
原文如下：
Largest Single Week Drop in 6 Years for SC Oil Positioning Index
Analysts at Standard Chartered revealed in a report sent to Rigzone late last week that their crude oil positioning index saw its largest single week decline in six years.
According to the report, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) NYMEX fell 36.0 points to -67.6, WTI ICE fell 17.7 points to -96.5, Brent NYMEX fell 17.3 to 2.4, and Brent ICE dropped 28.9 points to -27.6. The combined crude oil Standard Chartered positioning index fell 41.6 points to -67.0, the report highlighted.
The Standard Chartered analysts, who also revealed that their gasoline positioning index turned negative for the first time in 20 months, falling by 36.4 to -6.6, noted in the report that they think positioning in oil is now short enough to be price positive.
“The reversal of gamma effects at current prices should also support a short-term move higher,” the analysts stated in the report.
In its latest report, Standard Chartered noted that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had published the last of the backlog of positioning data that arose from a cyberattack on a third-party data provider.
In the report, which combined the CFTC data with equivalent Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data, the analysts noted that “there was heavy selling of crude oil and gasoline, combined with a rapid move by funds into precious metals”.
“Money manager net selling across the four main Brent and WTI contracts totaled 128.1 million barrels in the week to 14 March,” the analysts added.
“The next CFTC data … will show positions as of 21 March, a day after the price low, and is likely to show a further speculative unwind,” the analysts continued.
The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data was neutral, according to Standard Chartered’s bull-bear index, the analysts said.
“While there were strong draws in gasoline and distillates, crude oil inventories rose 3.35 million barrels against the five-year average, demand is still weak, and crude oil output rose,” the analysts stated.
“After the torrent of negative data earlier this year, any positive data is likely to improve sentiment. All that is now needed for the EIA data to become more bullish is a few more blue boxes in the week on week crude oil balance to help reduce the 33.65 million barrel surplus of crude above the five-year average,” the analysts added.
In a separate report sent to Rigzone on March 21, analysts at Standard Chartered outlined that they thought their oil supply-demand balance was “relatively benign in terms of its price implications”.
“It does not lend much fundamental support to the recent push down to $70 per barrel, but it also does not support any sustained surge this year above $100 per barrel,” the analysts stated in that report.
In its March 21 report, Standard Chartered projected that WTI would average $88 per barrel this year, $95 per barrel in 2004, and $106 per barrel in 2005. Brent was projected to average $91 per barrel in 2023, $98 per barrel in 2024, and $109 per barrel in 2025 in the report.
In a statement sent to Rigzone last week, Wood Mackenzie noted that Asian return to normal mobility is expected to drive a strong recovery in global oil demand in 2023 “from both a base and high case perspective”.
“This should see Brent crude prices rising from current levels to average $$89.40 per barrel for 2023,” Hittle added.
The more bullish high case scenario would see increased construction activity driving Asian oil demand even higher in 2023, Wood Mackenzie said in the statement, highlighting that this could push annual oil prices higher by $3-$5 per barrel.
In a statement posted on its website on March 6, Goldman Sachs noted that, according to a report from Goldman Sachs Research, oil prices could rise as high as $107 a barrel by the end of the year “depending on how OPEC responds to emerging market conditions”.
Later on in the month, Bloomberg reported that Goldman Sachs analysts “now see Brent reaching $94 a barrel for the 12 months ahead, and $97 a barrel in the second half of 2024, versus $100 a barrel previously”.
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