2023年上游石油和天然气决策投资可能增加

据钻机地带4月14日报道，在本周发给钻机地带的一份声明中，咨询机构伍德麦肯兹表示，根据该公司的最新分析，今年上游油气金融投资决策(FID)可能会增加。

该声明强调，到2023年，1850亿美元的总投资和270亿桶石油当量的储量将被批准，并指出，国有石油公司(noc)将控制今年最大的投资机会，“利用巨大的已发现资源，同时拥有最低的单位成本”。

该声明透露，到2023年，项目将需要平均每桶49美元的原油才能产生15%的盈亏平衡内部回报率(IRR)，并补充说，加权平均IRR为19%，即每桶60美元，将是自2018年以来的最低水平。

伍德麦肯兹副总裁兼上游分析主管Fraser McKay在声明中表示：“在油气项目上实现FID比以前更难，但由于2022年批准的项目比预期的要少，我们相信今年的FID活动将略有上升，40个最可行的项目中有30多个可能达到这一里程碑。”

伍德麦肯兹上游研究首席分析师Greg Roddick在声明中表示：“短周期和小规模海上项目在回报和回报方面都将表现出色。”

他补充说：“当涉及内部收益率时，长寿命液化天然气项目会受到影响，但它们所拥有的吸引力和稳定未来现金流将具有战略重要意义。”

McKay在声明中强调，大多数运营商将保持纪律，碳减排仍将是许多FID项目的关键考虑部分。他补充说，国际石油公司将主要专注于成本更高但回报更高的深水开发，但他强调，“所有人都将敏锐地意识到石油和天然气项目的碳排放限制将如何在公共领域发挥作用，以及相关排放将受到何种审查”。

Roddick在声明中说：“有利的深水石油和大陆架项目将在排放方面表现更好，但液化天然气、酸性天然气和一些陆上项目需要采取缓解措施。”

伍德麦肯兹发言人告诉钻井地带网站，在2022年，该公司总共列出了30个FID项目。该发言人透露，这些项目总共投资1400亿美元，将开发183亿桶石油当量的储量。

上游的魔力

今年1月，在伍德麦肯兹网站上发布的一份声明中，McKay表示，上游石油和天然气“在2022年重获魔力”。

“创纪录的现金流恢复了信心，修复了资产负债表。对许多人来说，对即将到来的未来感到兴奋。”

他继续说：“当然有经济上的激励，但提供安全和负担得起的能源的新目标感，特别是进入紧张的欧洲天然气市场，将重新激发动力。”

雷斯塔能源上个月在其网站上发布的一份声明中宣布，未来两年，海上石油和天然气行业将实现十年来最高的增长，“新项目投资将达到2140亿美元”。

该公司在3月份的声明中表示：“研究表明，年度未开发地区的资本支出在2022年突破了1000亿美元门槛，并将在2023年再次突破这一门槛，这是自2012年和2013年以来连续两年首次突破。”

今年1月，雷斯塔能源在其网站上发表的一份声明中指出，预计全球石油和天然气承包商市场将在2025年达到1万亿美元的峰值，并在此后几年保持在高水平。

雷斯塔能源在一份声明中表示：“得益于液化、运输和再气化天然气行业中游部分的强劲增长，在2022—2028年期间，石油和天然气的总体支出平均每年将保持在9200亿美元以上。”

寿琳玲 编译自 钻机地带

原文如下：

Upstream Oil and Gas FIDs Will Likely Increase in 2023

In a statement sent to Rigzone this week, Wood Mackenzie outlined that, according to new analysis from the company, upstream oil and gas financial investment decisions (FID) will likely increase this year.

The statement, which highlighted that $185 billion of total investment and 27 billion barrels of oil equivalent of reserves are up for sanction in 2023, noted that national oil companies (NOCs) will control the largest investment opportunities this year, “taking advantage of huge, discovered resources, while boasting the lowest unit costs”.

In 2023, projects will require an average of $49 per barrel of crude to generate a breakeven 15 percent internal rate of return (IRR), the statement revealed, adding that a weighted average IRR of 19 percent, at $60 per barrel, would be the lowest level since 2018.

“Achieving FID on oil and gas projects is harder than it used to be, but with fewer sanctioned in 2022 than was expected, we believe we will see a slight uptick in activity this year, with over 30 of the 40 most viable projects likely to reach this milestone,” Fraser McKay, Wood Mackenzie’s Vice President and Head of Upstream Analysis, said in the statement.

Greg Roddick, the Principal Analyst of Upstream Research at WoodMac, said in the statement that “short-cycle and small-scale offshore projects will outperform in terms of both paybacks and returns”.

“Long-life liquified natural gas projects are compromised when it comes to IRRs, but their attractive and stable future cash flows will be strategically important,” he added.

McKay highlighted in the statement that most operators will remain disciplined and that carbon mitigation will remain a key part of many FID projects. He added that international oil companies will be focusing largely on higher-cost but higher-return deepwater developments but stressed that “all will be acutely aware of how oil and gas project sanctions are playing out in the public domain and the scrutiny to which their associated emissions will be subject”.

“Advantaged deepwater oil and shelf projects will outperform on emissions, but LNG, sour gas and some onshore projects require mitigation measures,” Roddick said in the statement.

A WoodMac spokesperson told Rigzone that in 2022, the company listed a total of 30 FIDs. These have combined investment of $140 billion and will develop reserves of 18.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, the spokesperson revealed.

Upstream Mojo

In a statement posted on WoodMac’s website back in January this year, McKay stated that upstream oil and gas “got its mojo back in 2022”.

“Record cash flows restored confidence and repaired balance sheets. For many, there is excitement about the year ahead,” he said in that statement.

“There are economic incentives of course, but a renewed sense of purpose to provide secure and affordable energy – particularly into tight European gas markets – will revitalize motivation,” McKay continued.

In a statement posted on Rystad Energy’s site last month, Rystad announced that the offshore oil and gas sector is set for the highest growth in a decade in the next two years, “with $214 billion of new project investments lined up”.

“Rystad Energy research shows that annual greenfield capital expenditure broke the $100 billion threshold in 2022 and will break it again in 2023 – the first breach for two straight years since 2012 and 2013,” the company said in the statement back in March.

Back in January, Rystad noted in a statement published on its site that it expects the global market for oil and gas contractors to rise to a peak of $1 trillion in 2025 and remain at high levels for several years thereafter.

“Helped by strong growth in the midstream part of the industry to liquefy, transport, and re-gasify natural gas, overall oil and gas spending will stay above $920 billion annually on average for the 2022-2028 period,” Rystad said in that statement.