IEA预计今年全球石油需求量将创历史新高

国际能源署(IEA)认为，受亚洲消费增长的推动，今年全球石油日需求量将达到创纪录的1.019亿桶

超过一半的全球石油需求增长将由亚洲推动，非经合组织国家将占到总增长的87%

石油供应可能难以跟上需求的增长，尤其是在欧佩克+意外减产之后

据油价网2023年4月14日报道，国际能源署(IEA)周五表示，尽管随着持续加息对经济增长的担忧，但受消费复苏的推动，今年全球石油日需求量仍将达到创纪录的1.019亿桶。

IEA在4月份的石油市场报告中表示，受亚洲经济复苏的推动，今年全球石油日需求量预计将增加200万桶，日需求量将达到创纪录的1.019亿桶。

这一估计数字与3月份的石油市场报告持平。

然而，发达经济体和新兴市场的石油需求增长之间的差距将会扩大。IEA指出，以亚洲大国为首的非经合组织国家将占全球石油需求增长的近90%。

另一方面，经合组织近几个月的需求一直不佳，疲软的工业活动和温暖的天气导致今年第一季度经合组织的石油日消费量比去年同期减少39万桶。今年第一季度的需求下降是经合组织国家连续第二个季度需求下降。

IEA表示：“受气候变暖和工业活动低迷的影响，尽管近几个月发达国家的石油需求表现平平，但亚洲大国和其他非经合组织国家的需求强劲增长，正在有力抵消这一影响。”IEA对亚洲石油需求增长保持乐观展望。

来自亚洲的强劲需求使第一季度全球石油日需求同比增长81万桶，达到1.004亿桶。

IEA表示：“受亚洲大国经济和国际旅游业持续复苏的推动，预计到今年年底，全球石油日需求量将大幅增加270万桶。”

IEA称，总体而言，今年全年，全球石油日需求量将增加200万桶，非经合组织国家将占增长的87%，仅亚洲大国就占全球增长的一半以上。

IEA表示，石油供应可能难以赶上这一增长，尤其是在欧佩克+意外减产之后，这可能会加剧预计今年晚些时候出现的供应短缺。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

IEA Sees Global Oil Demand Hitting Record High In 2023

·     The IEA sees global oil demand hitting a record high of 101.9 million barrels per day this year, driven by rising Asian consumption.

·     More than half of the global demand growth increase will be driven by Asia, with Non-OECD countries set to account for 87% of growth in total.

·     Supply may struggle to keep up with this demand growth, especially after the surprise OPEC+ cut.

Despite concerns about economic growth with the ongoing interest rate hikes, global oil demand is still set for a record high 101.9 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, driven by a resurgent Asian consumption, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.

Buoyed by a resurgent Asia, world oil demand is set for growth of 2 million bpd this year, to hit a record 101.9 million bpd, the IEA said in its Oil Market Report for April today.  

The estimate remains unchanged from last month’s report.

Yet, there will be a widening disparity between demand growth in developed economies and in emerging markets. Non-OECD countries, led by Asia, are set to account for nearly 90% of demand growth, the IEA noted.

OECD demand, on the other hand, has been underwhelming in recent months, and weak industrial activity and warm weather led to OECD consumption shrinking by 390,000 bpd in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period of 2022. The decline in Q1 2023 was the second consecutive quarter of falling demand in OECD countries.

“While oil demand in developed nations has underwhelmed in recent months, slowed by warmer weather and sluggish industrial activity, robust gains in Asia and other non-OECD countries are providing a strong offset,” the IEA said, keeping its upbeat outlook on Asian oil demand growth.

Solid demand from Asia raised global oil demand by 810,000 bpd year-on-year in the first quarter to 100.4 million bpd.  

“A much stronger increase of 2.7 mb/d is expected through year-end, propelled by a continued recovery in Asia and international travel,” the IEA said.  

Overall, world oil demand will grow by 2 million bpd for the full year of 2023, with the non-OECD accounting for 87% of the growth and Asia alone making up more than half the global increase, according to the agency.

Supply could struggle to catch up with this growth, especially after the surprise OPEC+ cuts, which risk exacerbating a supply deficit expected later this year, the IEA said.