据4月15日今日石油网站消息，随着EIA修正了对今年和明年的油价预测，油价已飙升至每桶83美元。
在《短期能源展望》（STEO）中，EIA预计布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶85.01美元，比之前的预期高出2.5%；预计2024年的平均价格为每桶81.21美元，比预期高出5%。同时，EIA对于西得克萨斯中质油(WTI)的预测价格同之前相比也提高了相似的幅度。
EIA表示，更高的价格预测反映出2023年全球石油产量将减少，而全球石油消费需求保持相对不变。
EIA称：“尽管我们的预估价格较高，但最近银行业的问题增加了经济和石油需求增长低于我们预期的可能性，这有可能导致油价下跌。”
EIA在预测中考虑到了欧佩克每日减产120万桶的影响。该消息公布后，原油价格大幅上涨。
原油价格已经从一年前20%的涨幅高点回落，这是地缘政治冲突的直接结果。欧佩克减产则开始推动油价回升，在过去一个月内上涨了约20%。
现在的原油价格与2023年年初的价格水平大致相同。
何胜男 编译自 今日石油网站
原文如下：
2023 oil price forecast hiked to $85/b by US Energy Body as OPEC cut remains in play
Oil prices shot up to US$83 per barrel as the United States (US) Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its forecast for this year and the next.
In its Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA expects Brent to average at US$85.01 a barrel this year, 2.5% higher than the previous outlook. Brent prices in 2024 are revised to US$81.21 per barrel – 5% higher than before. With West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, expectations were raised by a similar amount.
The EIA said the higher price forecast reflects one for less global production in 2023 and a relatively unchanged outlook for global oil consumption.
“Despite our higher price forecast, recent issues in the banking sector raise the potential that economic and oil demand growth will be lower than our forecast, which has the potential to result in lower oil prices,” the EIA outlined.
The Administration factored in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) 1.2 million barrels of crude a day production cut in its forecast. Crude prices jumped after the announcement.
Prices have retreated from a 20% spike a year ago, a direct result of the war. The OPEC cut started pushing them back up, and they have gained about 20% in the past month.
Now prices are around the same level where they started the year in 2023.
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