壳牌：太阳能和风能产能增长速度正在超过液化天然气和核能

各国政府激励措施和能源安全问题再次推动了可再生能源的发展

虽然太阳能和风能产能的增长轨迹比核能和液化天然气要陡峭得多，但能源需求也出现了极端的增长趋势

据油价网2023年4月9日报道，风能和太阳能产能的增长速度正在超过液化天然气和核能。壳牌公司最近的一份报告研究并比较了这四种能源形式的增长轨迹，它们都出现在过去60年里，并非常清楚地讲述了全球能源部门是如何增长和变化的。简而言之：我们最年轻、最清洁的能源技术是世界至少50年来发展最快的技术。

可再生能源正在蓬勃发展。它们不仅在成本上比主要化石燃料更具竞争力，而且在许多情况下更具有成本效益。除了成本下降之外，世界各国政府还越来越多地推出巨额激励和补贴方案。在美国，政府最近通过了《通胀削减法》，提供数十亿美元支持国内清洁能源部门的发展。该法案可能对真正降低通货膨胀没有什么作用，但它确实是美国国会有史以来通过的最大的一项气候法案。在欧盟，领导层以一项名为REPowerEU的类似计划作为回应。虽然补贴和税收优惠，以及可再生能源技术的改进和规模经济，极大地推动了太阳能和风能行业的发展，但可再生能源的快速增长越来越多地与能源安全问题相关。地缘政治冲突引发的近期(且持续的)能源危机在全球能源市场掀起波澜，令全球领导人心惊胆战。其结果是，政府疯狂地以尽可能快的速度、最大程度地提高国内能源生产能力。

在欧洲，这导致了太阳能发电的破纪录增长。去年，太阳能和风能在欧洲生产了更多的能源和天然气，这在历史上还是第一次。根据《欧洲电力评论》今年发布的数据，去年，太阳能和风能占欧洲能源的五分之一以上(22%)，刚刚超过天然气在欧洲能源中的占比。

壳牌公司从这些发电能源开始对全球能源结构作出有意义贡献的时候就开始观察衡量它们的增长态势。衡量标准是指任何一种能源每年至少贡献1艾焦耳(大约是墨西哥一年的能源使用量)。这使得比较很容易，例如，太阳能和核能，通过观察它们的增长率在达到首个1艾焦耳的次年情况，在过去3年中的正面交锋情况等等。

从这一对比中，可以看到可再生能源的惊人增长，但我们也可以看到另一个趋势，这让情况变得有点复杂。虽然太阳能和风能的增长轨迹比核能和液化天然气要陡峭得多，但能源需求也出现了极端的增长趋势。“自核能达到1艾焦耳大关以来的50年里，全球能源消耗增加了一倍多，”彭博新闻社报道说，“1973年，全世界消耗了238艾焦耳的能源；在2021年，全世界消耗了595艾焦耳的能源。”出于这个原因，尽管风能和太阳能的增长速度超过了那些较老的技术，但它们对全球能源结构的贡献总体上仍然较小。

这对这些新兴技术对全球能源结构及其相关碳足迹的影响有重大影响：“在核能首次作为重要能源贡献者出现的那一年，它提供了全球使用能源的0.4%左右。当液化天然气达到1艾焦耳时，它提供了大约0.3%。到2016年，当太阳能提供了首个1亿焦耳时，它只满足了全球大幅增长的能源需求的不到0.2%。”仅在今年，全球太阳能发电装机容量就已达到316吉瓦，前景十分乐观。许多人认为清洁能源革命才刚刚真正开始，现在开始还不晚。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Shell: Solar And Wind Are Growing Faster Than LNG Ever Did

·     Shell: Wind and solar production capacities are growing faster than liquefied natural gas and nuclear ever did.

·     Government incentives and energy security issues have given renewables another bump.

·     While solar and wind are seeing a much steeper growth trajectory than nuclear and liquefied natural gas did, energy demand, too, has seen an extreme growth trend.

Wind and solar production capacities are growing faster than liquefied natural gas and nuclear ever did. A recent report from Shell Plc examined and compared the growth trajectories of these four energy forms, which have all emerged within the past 60 years, and which tell a very clear story about how the global energy sector is growing and changing. Put simply: our youngest and cleanest energy technologies are the fastest growing the world has seen in at least 50 years. 

Renewables are taking off. Not only have they become cost-competitive with major fossil fuels, in many cases they are more cost effective. And on top of these dropping costs, governments around the world are increasingly sweetening the deal with hefty incentive and subsidies packages. In the United States, the Administration recently passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which offers billions of dollars to support the growth of the domestic clean energy sector. The Act may not do a damn thing to actually reduce inflation, but it does stand as the single-biggest climate bill ever passed by U.S. Congress. In the European Union, leadership has responded with a comparable plan called REPowerEU. While subsidies and tax breaks, along with improved renewable energy technologies and economies of scale, have given a massive boost to the solar and wind power sectors, the breakneck growth of renewable energies is increasingly related to issues of energy security. The recent (and ongoing) energy crisis emanating from the war has made waves in energy markets around the world, spooking global leaders. The result has been a mad dash to shore up domestic energy production capacity to the greatest extent possible, as quickly as possible. 

In Europe, this has led to record-breaking addition of solar power. And last year, for the first time in history, solar and wind power produced more energy and natural gas in Europe. According to figures released this year by the European Electricity Review, solar and wind accounted for more than a fifth (22%) European energy in 2022, just edging out natural gas at 20%.

Shell measures the growth of these power sectors from a baseline of when they began to contribute meaningfully to the global energy mix. This bar is set at when any certain energy source contributes at least one exajoule per year (about the annual energy use of Mexico). This makes it easy to compare, for example, solar and nuclear head-to-head, by seeing where their growth rate is at one year past first exajoule, three years past, etc.

From this comparison we can see the striking growth of renewables, but we can also see another trend, which complicates the picture a bit. While solar and wind are seeing a much steeper growth trajectory than nuclear and liquefied natural gas did, energy demand, too, has seen an extreme growth trend. “Global energy consumption has more than doubled in the 50 years since nuclear reached the 1 exajoule mark.,” reports Bloomberg. “In 1973, the world consumed 238 exajoules of energy; in 2021, it consumed 595.” For this reason, although wind and solar are outpacing those older technologies, they are overall contributing less to the global energy mix. 

This has major implications for how much of an impact these nascent technologies have had on the global energy mix and its associated carbon footprint: “In the year that nuclear first appears as a significant energy contributor, it supplied about 0.4% of the energy the world used. By the time that LNG hit an exajoule, it provided about 0.3%. By 2016, when solar provided its first exajoule, it met less than 0.2% of much-increased global energy demand.” 316 gigawatts of solar power are already slated to be added to the global fleet this year alone, and the prognosis is promising. Many feel that the clean energy revolution is just now starting in earnest. And it’s not a moment too late.