据美国钻井网站2023年4月13日报道，美国能源信息署(EIA)在4月11日发布的最新短期能源展望(STEO)报告中上调了其对2023年和2024年布伦特原油现货平均价格的预测。
根据4月份的STEO报告，EIA现在预计今年布伦特原油现货价格平均每桶为85.01美元，明年平均每桶为81.21美元。EIA此前在3月7日发布的STEO报告预计，2023年布伦特原油现货价格平均为每桶82.95美元，2024年为每桶77.57美元。
EIA在最新的STEO报告中表示：“我们预测的2023年布伦特原油现货价格平均为每桶85美元，比上个月的预测每桶上涨2美元。”
EIA补充称：“价格预测上涨反映了2023年全球原油产量减少的预测，以及全球原油消费前景相对不变。”
EIA在最新的STEO报告中警告称：“尽管我们对油价的预测更高，但最近银行业出现的问题提高了经济和石油需求增长低于我们预测的可能性，这有可能导致油价下跌。”
EIA在4月份的STEO报告中指出，预计未来一年全球石油市场将相对平衡。
EIA在4月份的STEO报告中表示：“全球原油库存在2022年日增40万桶，在2023年第一季度日增110万桶，在2023年下半年库存将基本保持不变。”
“我们预计从2024年开始，全球原油库存平均每天将增加50万桶左右。这一预测假设欧佩克最近的减产在2024年初到期。鉴于我们对2023年下半年石油市场相对平衡的预测，我们预计2023年剩余时间的原油平均价格将为每桶86美元。”EIA继续说道。
EIA在STEO报告中概述称，价格下行压力将在2024年第二季度出现，“我们预计届时全球原油库存将开始大幅增加”。
EIA表示：“然而，由于这些增加依赖于欧佩克增加原油产量，这一时期预测的不确定性来自原油产量低于我们的预测，这可能导致原油价格高于我们的预测。”
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
USA EIA Increases Brent Oil Price Forecasts|
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its average Brent spot price forecast for both 2023 and 2024 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on April 11.
According to the April STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $85.01 per barrel this year and $81.21 per barrel next year. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released on March 7, projected that the Brent spot price would average $82.95 per barrel in 2023 and $77.57 per barrel in 2024.
“The Brent crude oil spot price in our forecast averages $85 per barrel in 2023, up $2 per barrel from last month’s forecast,” the EIA stated in the latest STEO.
“The higher price forecast reflects a forecast for less global production in 2023 and a relatively unchanged outlook for global oil consumption,” the EIA added.
“Despite our higher price forecast, recent issues in the banking sector raise the potential that economic and oil demand growth will be lower than our forecast, which has the potential to result in lower oil prices,” the EIA warned in the STEO.
In its April STEO, the EIA noted that it expects global oil markets will be in relative balance over the coming year.
“Global oil inventories, which increased by 0.4 million barrels per day in 2022 and by 1.1 million barrels per day in 1Q23 will be mostly unchanged during the second half of 2023,” the EIA said in the STEO.
“We expect builds will average about 0.5 million barrels per day beginning in 2024. This forecast assumes the recent OPEC cuts expire at the beginning of 2024. Given our forecast of relatively balanced oil markets in 2H23, we expect prices will average $86 per barrel for the rest of 2023,” the EIA continued.
In the STEO, the EIA outlined that downward price pressures emerge in the second quarter of 2024, “when we expect global oil inventories will begin to build more significantly”.
“However, because these builds depend on OPEC increasing its crude oil production, uncertainty in the forecast for this period comes from less oil production than we forecast, which could result in higher prices than in our forecast,” the EIA stated.
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