气候变化时代的石油和天然气

气候变化使石油和天然气公司的运营成本更高

越来越多的美国行业高管预计，美国石油产量将在未来五到六年内达到峰值

石油巨头已开始大举投资碳捕获、利用和封存（CCUS）技术

据油价网2023年4月23日报道，海平面上升、野火、热浪和极端天气事件已经在全球各地造成严重破坏，并可能导致基础设施崩溃、农作物减产、健康问题和劳动力流失，给全球经济造成数千亿美元的损失。当大多数人想到气候变化时，往往认为石油和天然气行业要承担最大的责任，因为它们的二氧化碳和温室气体排放量很高。然而，很少有人停下来想想，正在伤害社区的生态影响也在对化石燃料行业造成影响。

气候变化使得石油和天然气公司的运营成本越来越高。事实上，与气候变化有关的石油和天然气行业的供应威胁已经开始显现，全球超过6000亿桶的商业可采油气储量(占总储量的40%)面临着高度或极端的风险。根据总部位于英国的全球风险和战略咨询公司Verisk Maplecroft公布的数据，与气候相关事件扰乱了石油流向全球市场，这种影响在沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克和尼日利亚尤为严重。

考虑到越来越多的石油供应见顶信号，这一消息令人担忧。越来越多的美国行业高管期望美国经济增长。由于成本上升，劳动力和设备供应有限，美国页岩生产商迅速提高产量的努力受到了限制，人们对页岩再次繁荣的期望正在迅速破灭。

值得庆幸的是，石油和天然气行业正致力于减缓气候变化。

碳捕获的机会

虽然树木和其他植物可以自然地从大气中清除二氧化碳，但大多数气候变化专家现在都认为，我们没有能力种植足够多、生长足够快的植物来限制损害。

碳捕获是一项被提议用来限制全球变暖和气候变化的技术。政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)和国际能源署(IEA)都认为，碳捕获、利用和封存(CCUS)技术是许多难以减排的行业的理想解决方案，如航空、制氢和来自化石燃料的水泥。

不幸的是，在投资CCUS方面，世界远远不够：根据国际能源署(IEA)公布的数据，全球只有35家商业设施将CCUS应用于工业过程、燃料转化和发电，年总捕获能力约为45亿吨二氧化碳。然而，麦肯锡公司估计，全球CCUS的二氧化碳吸收量需要提高120倍，达到每年至少42亿吨的二氧化碳吸收量，才能实现到2050年前的净零排放承诺。

尽管如此，石油巨头还是开始大张旗鼓地行动起来，尽管最终更多的是为了延长油气田的开采期，而不是减轻气候变化的影响。

在过去的几年里，石油巨头已经开始大力投资CCUS，许多人认为这只是石油巨头延长油气田开采期的一种方式，因为捕获的二氧化碳被用于提高原油采收率(EOR)。

两周前，埃克森美孚公司首席执行官达伦·伍兹告诉投资者，该公司的低碳业务有潜力在十年内超越其传统的石油和天然气业务，并产生数千亿美元的收入。伍兹概述了未来五年内该公司营收有望达到数十亿美元的预测。在5至10年内达到数百亿美元，在最初的10年增长之后达到数千亿美元。然而，伍兹表示，埃克森美孚公司是否能够实现其目标将取决于对碳定价的监管和政策支持，以及减少温室气体排放的成本，以及其他变化。

埃克森美孚公司认为，通过与旨在降低自身碳足迹的客户签订可预测的长期合同，这将导致“更加稳定或周期性更低”，不太容易受到大宗商品价格波动的影响。例如，埃克森美孚公司最近与工业气体公司林德公司签署了一份长期合同，涉及与林德公司计划在得克萨斯州博蒙特的清洁氢气项目相关的二氧化碳排放。埃克森美孚公司每年将从林德公司的工厂运输并永久储存多达220万吨的二氧化碳。早在今年2月，林德公司就公布了一项耗资18亿美元的综合计划，其中将包括具有碳捕获的自热重整装置和一个大型空气分离厂，以供应清洁的氢气和氮气。

斯伦贝谢新能源公司

今年2月，油田服务巨头斯伦贝谢公司与彭博新能源财经(BNEF)讨论了其新成立的斯伦贝谢新能源公司。根据斯伦贝谢新能源公司总裁加文·伦尼克的说法，到本十年结束前，新能源公司的收入预计将达到30亿美元，到下一个十年末，收入至少将达到100亿美元。斯伦贝谢公司将专注于五个关键细分市场，包括碳排放解决方案、氢气 、地热和地热能、能源储存、极其重要的矿产品，每个细分市场的最低目标市场为100亿美元。

伦尼克表示，在这些细分市场中，碳捕获、利用和封存(CCUS)是增长最快的机会，这得益于美国《通胀削减法案》(IRA)的大力推动。 

西方石油公司（Oxy）被视为CCUS项目强有力竞争者

为了实现气候目标，麦肯锡公司建议建立CCUS中心，本质上是一个共享相同的二氧化碳运输、储存或利用基础设施的设施群。目前，全球只有15个CCUS中心；麦肯锡公司估计，全球有可能建立多达700个CCUS中心，这些中心将位于或靠近潜在的二氧化碳存储地点和提高油气采收率地点。

美国政府目前支持四个CCUS中心，其中西方石油公司（Oxy）的两个主要CCUS项目被视为强有力的竞争者。美国政府将提供三个级别的资助，从初期可行性研究阶段的300万元，到工程设计研究阶段的1250万元，再到即将完成采购、建造和运营阶段的项目最高可达5亿元。

瑞士初创企业Climeworks迄今已融资逾8亿美元，是迄今为止全球最活跃的CCUS公司之一。  

麦肯锡公司估计，到2035年前，全球每年需要在CCUS技术上投资1200亿至1500亿美元，才能实现净零排放。为了有效地扩展这项技术，麦肯锡公司指出，有必要加强整个价值链的协调。值得庆幸的是，由于对化石燃料的需求降温，现有大型能源巨头似乎热衷于在这个可能价值数万亿美元的行业中实现自我定位。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Oil & Gas In The Age Of Climate Change

·     Climate change is making it costlier for oil and gas companies to operate.

·     A growing number of U.S. industry executives expect U.S. oil production to peak within the next five or six years.

·     Big Oil firms have started investing heavily in CCUS.

Rising sea levels, wild-fires, heat waves and extreme weather events are already wreaking havoc everywhere and could cost the global economy hundreds of billions of dollars in crumbling infrastructure, reduced crop yields, health problems, and lost labor. When most people think about climate change, the oil and gas industries tend to take the lion’s share of the blame due to their high levels of CO2 and GHG emissions. Few people, however, pause and consider that the same ecological fallout that is hurting communities is also taking a toll on the fossil fuel industry.

Climate change is making it costlier for oil and gas companies to operate. Indeed, climate-related?supply threats have already begun to manifest in the oil and gas industry, with more than 600 billion barrels equivalent of the world’s commercially recoverable oil and gas reserves, or 40% of total reserves, facing high or extreme risks. According to UK-based global risk and strategic consulting firm Verisk Maplecroft, the risk of?climate related events disrupting?the flow?of oil?to global markets?is highest in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Nigeria.

This revelation is worrying considering growing signals of peak oil supply. A growing number of U.S. industry executives expect US. oil production to peak within the next five or six years while others think the peak will come much earlier, Expectations for another shale boom are quickly dying thanks to rising costs as well as limited supplies of labor and equipment hamstringing efforts by U.S. shale producers to quickly ramp up production.

Thankfully, the oil and gas industry is committing itself more to efforts aimed at slowing down climate change.

The Carbon Capture Opportunity

While trees and other plants naturally remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, most climate change experts now agree that we are just not capable of planting enough, fast enough, to limit the damage.

Carbon capture is one technology that has been proposed to limit global warming and climate change. Both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and International Energy Agency (IEA) consider carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) an ideal solution for many hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation, hydrogen production and cement from fossil fuels. 

Unfortunately, the world has fallen woefully short when it comes to investing in CCUS: according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) there are only 35 commercial facilities globally that are applying CCUS to industrial processes, fuel transformation and power generation, with a total annual capture capacity of ~45?Mt?CO2. However, McKinsey estimates that global CCUS uptake needs to be 120x higher, rising to at least 4.2 gigatons per annum (GTPA) of CO2 captured, for the world to achieve its net-zero commitments by 2050.

Still, Big Oil is beginning to step up in a big way, even if it is, in the end, more of a way of extending life than contributing to a lessening of the effects of climate change. 

Over the past few years, Big Oil firms have started investing heavily in CCUS, which many argue is simply Big Oil’s way of extending the life of oil and gas fields because captured carbon is used for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). 

Two weeks ago, Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) CEO Darren Woods told investors that the company’s Low Carbon business has the potential to outperform its legacy oil and gas business within a decade and generate hundreds of billions in revenues. Woods outlined projections showing how the business has the potential to hit revenue of billions of dollars within the next five years; tens of billions in 5-10 years, and hundreds of billions after the initial 10-year ramp-up. However, whether Exxon is able to actualize its goal will depend on regulatory and policy support for carbon pricing, as well as the cost to abate greenhouse gas emissions, among other changes, Ammann said.

Exxon believes that this will result in a "much more stable, or less cyclical" that is less prone to commodity price swings through predictable, long-term contracts with customers aiming to lower their own carbon footprint. For instance, Exxon recently signed a long-term contract with industrial gas company Linde Plc. (NYSE:LIN) that involves offtake of carbon dioxide associated with Linde’s planned clean hydrogen project in Beaumont, Texas. Exxon will transport and permanently store as much as 2.2M metric tons/year of carbon dioxide each year from Linde’s plant. Back in February, Linde unveiled plans to build a $1.8B complex which will include autothermal reforming with carbon capture and a large air separation plant to supply clean hydrogen and nitrogen.

SLB New Energy

Back in February, oil field services giant Schlumberger Ltd (NYSE:SLB) discussed its newly carved SLB New Energy unit with Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). According to SLB New Energy president Gavin Rennick, the unit is expected to hit revenue of $3 billion by the end of the current decade and at least $10 billion by the end of the next decade. SLB will focus on five key niches, each with a minimum addressable market of $10 billion.:

Carbon solutions

Hydrogen

Geothermal and geoenergy

Energy storage

Critical minerals

Of these segments, Rennick says carbon capture, utilization and sequestration (CCUS) is the fastest growing opportunity thanks to the significant boost it got from the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Occidental

To achieve our climate goal, McKinsey has proposed the creation of CCUS hubs, essentially a cluster of facilities that share the same CO2 transportation and storage or utilization infrastructure. Currently, there are only 15 CCUS hubs across the globe; MckInsey estimates that there’s the potential to build as many as 700 CCUS hubs globally, located on, or close to, potential storage locations and Enhanced Oil and Gas Recovery (EOR/EGR) sites.

The U.S. government is currently backing four hubs, with two major Occidental Petroleum Corporation’s (NYSE:OXY) projects seen as strong contenders. The government is offering three levels of funding, ranging from $3 million for early stage feasibility studies to $12.5 million for engineering design studies to up to $500 million for projects ready to complete the procurement, construction and operation phases.

Swiss start-up Climeworks, which has raised more than $800 million to date, is among the most active CCUS firms so far.

McKinsey estimates that annual global investment in CCUS technology of $120 billion to $150 billion by 2035 is required for the world to achieve net zero. To scale the technology effectively, the firm notes that greater coordination across the value chain is necessary. Thankfully, large, incumbent energy giants appear keen to position themselves for what could be a multi-trillion-dollar industry as demand for fossil fuels cools off.