据路透社4月24日报道,因对利率上升、全球经济和燃料需求前景的担忧超过了欧佩克+减产导致供应紧张的预期担忧,周一油价下跌。
截至格林尼治时间4时9分,布伦特原油价格下跌75美分,跌幅0.92%,至每桶80.91美元,而美国西得克萨斯中质原油价格为每桶77.13美元,下跌74美分,跌幅0.95%。
上周,这两种原油合约价格都下跌了5%以上,为五周来首次单周下跌。因美国暗示汽油需求较上年同期下降,加剧了人们对全球最大石油消费国经济衰退的担忧。
CMC Markets分析师Tina Teng表示,疲软的美国经济数据和科技行业令人失望的企业盈利数据引发了投资者对经济增长的担忧和风险规避,此外,美元企稳和债券收益率攀升也给大宗商品市场带来压力。
从美国到英国和欧洲的央行预计都将在5月的第一周开会时加息,以解决居高不下的通胀问题。
JTD能源服务总监John Driscoll表示,“我认为,最近的经济数据喜忧参半,央行持续干预是最近价格调整的主要驱动因素。不过,许多人会认为这是一个逢低买入的机会”。
尽管如此,亚洲炼油利润率仍因印度顶级炼油商创纪录的产量而减弱,抑制了该地区对6月份中东供应量的需求。
尽管如此,分析师和交易员仍然看好亚洲2023年下半年的燃料需求复苏,因为欧佩克+计划从5月开始进一步削减供应,这可能会收紧市场。
澳大利亚国家银行的分析师表示,预计石油需求复苏将在短期内抵消经合组织需求的放缓,而地缘政治因素和供应限制增加了价格上涨的风险,预计布伦特原油价格可能在第二季度末升至每桶92美元。
王佳晶 摘译自 路透社
原文如下:
Oil prices slide on uncertainty over global economic outlook, rate hikes
Oil prices fell on Monday as concerns about rising interest rates, the global economy and the outlook for fuel demand outweighed support from the prospect of tighter supplies on OPEC+ supply cuts, Trend reports with reference to Reuters.
Brent crude slipped 75 cents, or 0.92%, to $80.91 a barrel by 0409 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $77.13 a barrel, down 74 cents, 0.95% lower.
Both contracts fell more than 5% last week, their first weekly drop in five, as U.S. implied gasoline demand fell from a year ago, fuelling worries of a recession at the world's top oil consumer.
Weak U.S. economic data and disappointing corporate earnings from the tech sector sparked growth concerns and risk aversion among investors, CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said. The stabilising U.S. dollar and climbing bond yields are also pressurising commodity markets, she added.
Central banks from the United States to Britain and Europe are all expected to raise interest rates when they meet in the first week of May, seeking to tackle stubbornly high inflation.
"I would cite recent mixed economic data and continued central bank intervention as the primary drivers behind the recent price correction," said John Driscoll, director of JTD Energy Services. However, many may view this as a dip-buying opportunity, he said.
Still, refining margins in Asia have weakened on record production from top refiners of India, curbing the region's appetite for Middle East supplies loading in June.
Nevertheless, analysts and traders remained bullish about fuel demand recovery towards the second half of 2023 and as additional supply cuts planned by OPEC+ - the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers- from May could tighten markets.
The oil demand recovery is expected to more than offset the slowdown in OECD demand in the near term, while sanctions and supply constraints add upside risk to prices, analysts at the National Australia Bank said, adding that Brent could rise to $92 a barrel by the end of the second quarter.
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