惠誉解决方案旗下研究机构BMI披露最新布伦特原油价格预测

据美国钻井网站2023年5月12日报道，惠誉解决方案旗下的研究公司BMI日前在发给美国钻井网站的一份新报告中披露了其截至2027年的最新布伦特原油价格预测。  

根据这份新报告，BMI预计今年布伦特原油平均价格为每桶85美元，2024年和2025年为每桶83美元，2026年和2027年为每桶80美元。彭博共识预测，今年布伦特原油价格平均每桶86美元，2024年平均每桶87美元，2025年平均每桶85美元，2026年平均每桶79美元，2027年平均每桶71美元。

在4月3日发给美国钻井网站的一份报告中，惠誉解决方案预测今年布伦特原油价格平均为每桶85美元，2024年和2025年平均为每桶83美元，2026年和2027年平均为每桶80美元。彭博共识在那份报告中认为，今年布伦特原油价格平均每桶为87美元，2024年平均为每桶88美元，2025年平均每桶为82美元，2026年平均为每桶80美元，2027年平均为每桶75美元。惠誉解决方案在其今年4月份的报告中强调，此前曾预计今年布伦特原油的平均价格为每桶90美元。

BMI分析师在最新报告中表示：“本月我们维持布伦特原油价格预测不变，今年平均每桶85美元，反映出相对于当前现货价格水平(每桶76美元)和今年迄今为止的平均价格表现(每桶82美元)的看涨前景。”

“市场情绪目前极其脆弱，投资者对看涨市场的发展普遍充耳不闻。我们预计，受季节性需求强劲、欧佩克+减产和原油库存减少的刺激，油价将在第二和第三季度回升。”

分析师警告称：“然而，全球经济增长放缓以及美国和欧盟预期的经济衰退将对油价下行压力造成影响。” 

卖空者重获控制权

BMI分析师在最近发布的报告中指出，卖空者已经重新控制市场，“导致原油价格比4月份的峰值下跌了11%”。  

分析师在报告中称，“在同一时期，布伦特原油资产管理机构持有的多头仓位减少了25%，而空头仓位飙升了129%”。

分析师们补充说：“面对4月2日宣布并于5月1日生效的欧佩克+每日额外减产116万桶原油产量，伊拉克从3月25日开始中断了每天45万桶原油的出口，以及5月初加拿大因野火导致每天超过10万桶的原油产量损失，市场仓位发生了波动。”

BMI分析师继续说：“总的来说，这相当于全球近2%的原油供应停产，但市场的反应相对平静。”

分析师在报告中指出，尽管供应方面的发展本应支持布伦特原油价格，但推动价格走势的似乎是更大范围的宏观经济放缓。

分析师们指出：“今年的经济前景充满挑战，我们的分析师预测今年全球实际GDP同比增长率仅为2.0%，低于2022年的3.1%和2021年的6.0%。”

分析师们补充说：“成熟市场的下滑幅度最大，今年成熟市场的增长率将放缓至0.9%，这反映出美国经济的轻度衰退和欧元区增长的急剧减速。”

分析师们接着表示：“今年以来，这两个市场的高频数据普遍出人意料地上行，而银行业的压力已经消退，对整体经济健康影响不大。”

EIA，渣打银行，美国银行全球研究的预测

在5月9日发布的最新短期能源展望(STEO)报告中，美国能源信息署(EIA)下调了今年和明年布伦特原油现货价格的平均预期。

最新的STEO报告显示，EIA目前预计今年布伦特原油现货价格将平均为每桶78.65美元，2024年为每桶74.47美元。EIA在4月份发布的上一份STEO报告中预测，今年布伦特原油现货价格将平均为每桶85.01美元，2024年为每桶81.21美元。

渣打银行在同一天发表的另一份报告中透露，该行目前预计今年布伦特原油价格将平均每桶91美元，明年平均每桶98美元，2025年平均每桶109美元。渣打银行在1月份发给美国钻井网站的另一份报告中也做出了同样的布伦特原油价格预测。

在本周发给美国钻井网站的另一份报告中，美国银行全球研究透露，它已下调了对今年布伦特原油平均价格的预期。

美国银行全球研究在报告中表示：“由于负面的宏观趋势将放大未来的需求疲软，我们将今年布伦特原油平均价格预测下调至每桶80美元。”

美国银行全球研究在报告中补充说：“即便如此，我们仍将2024年布伦特原油价格预测维持在每桶90美元，因为我们相信经合组织的需求最终会改善，而欧佩克+可能会继续积极主动地管理供应。”

到目前为止，今年布伦特原油的最高收盘价为1月23日的每桶88.19美元。到目前为止，今年布伦特原油的最低收盘价是5月3日的每桶72.33美元。在撰写本文时，布伦特原油价格为每桶74.70美元。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

BMI Reveals Latest Brent Oil Price Forecasts

BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, has revealed its latest Brent oil price forecasts through to 2027 in a new report sent to Rigzone.

According to the report, BMI sees the Brent price averaging $85 per barrel in 2023, $83 per barrel in both 2024 and 2025, and $80 per barrel in both 2026 and 2027. The Bloomberg Consensus, which was also published in the report and which BMI is a contributor to, sees the Brent price averaging $86 per barrel this year, $87 per barrel in 2024, $85 per barrel in 2025, $79 per barrel in 2026, and $71 per barrel in 2027.

In a report sent to Rigzone on April 3, Fitch Solutions projected that Brent would average $85 per barrel this year, $83 per barrel in both 2024 and 2025, and $80 per barrel in both 2026 and 2027. The Bloomberg Consensus in that report saw Brent averaging $87 per barrel this year, $88 per barrel in 2024, $82 per barrel in 2025, $80 per barrel in 2026, and $75 per barrel in 2027. Fitch Solutions previously expected Brent to average $90 per barrel in 2023, its April report highlighted.

“This month we have left our Brent crude price forecast unchanged, averaging $85 per barrel for 2023, reflecting a bullish outlook relative to both current spot price levels ($76 per barrel) and the average price performance in the year to date ($82 per barrel),” BMI analysts stated in the latest report.

“Sentiment is currently extremely fragile and investors have become generally deaf to bullish market developments. We expect prices to recover over the second and third quarters, spurred by seasonally stronger demand, production cutbacks by OPEC+ and crude inventory draws,” the analysts added in the report.

“However, slowing global economic growth and expected recessions in the U.S. and EU will weigh to the downside,” the analysts warned.

Short Sellers Regain Control

BMI analysts noted in the recently released report that short sellers have regained control of the market, “driving an 11 percent decline in prices versus their April peak”.

“Over that same period, the number of long positions held by managed money in Brent has dropped by 25 percent, while the number of shorts has soared by 129 percent,” the analysts said in the report.

“The swing in positioning has occurred in the face of an additional 1.16 million barrel per day cut by OPEC+, announced on April 2 and enacted on May 1, a 450,000 barrel per day export outage in Iraq, which began on March 25 and has yet to resume, and over 100,000 barrels per day of oil production losses in Canada, stemming from wildfires early this month,” the analysts added.

“In total, this equates to nearly two percent of global supply being brought offline and yet the response from the market has been relatively muted,” the BMI analysts continued.

While supply side developments should have been supportive of Brent, it is the broader slowing macro backdrop that appears to be driving price action, the analysts noted in the report.

“The economic outlook this year is challenging, with our analysts predicting global real GDP growth of just 2.0 percent year on year, down from 3.1 percent in 2022 and 6.0 percent in 2021,” the analysts noted.

“The declines are being led by developed markets, which are set to see growth slow to just 0.9 percent in 2023, reflecting a shallow recession in the U.S. and a sharp deceleration of growth in the eurozone,” they added.

“High frequency data in both markets has generally surprised to the upside in the YTD, while banking sector stresses have faded, with little impact on broader economic health,” the analysts went on to state.

EIA, Standard Chartered, BofA Global Research

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on May 9, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its Brent spot price average forecasts for this year and next year.

The EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $78.65 per barrel in 2023 and $74.47 per barrel in 2024, the latest STEO shows. In its previous STEO, which was published in April, the EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $85.01 per barrel in 2023 and $81.21 per barrel in 2024.

In another report published on the same day, Standard Chartered revealed that it currently sees the Brent price averaging $91 per barrel this year, $98 per barrel next year, and $109 per barrel in 2025. The company made the same Brent price projections in a separate report sent to Rigzone back in January.

In another report sent to Rigzone this week, BofA Global Research revealed that it had reduced its average Brent forecast for this year.

“With negative macro trends poised to amplify demand weakness ahead, we cut our average Brent crude oil price forecast to $80 per barrel in 2023,” BofA Global Research stated in the report.

“Even then, we leave our 2024 Brent crude oil forecast at $90 per barrel because we believe OECD demand will eventually improve while OPEC+ will likely keep proactively and pre-emptively managing supply,” the company added in the report.

Brent’s highest 2023 close, so far, was seen on January 23 at $88.19 per barrel. Its lowest 2023 close, so far, was seen on May 3 at $72.33 per barrel. At the time of writing, the Brent price is trading at $74.70 per barrel.