据钻井地带网站5月10日报道，美国银行全球研究部(BofA Global Research)在一份新报告中表示，货币力量正在拖垮布伦特原油价格，该报告显示，该公司已下调2023年布伦特原油平均价格预测。
美国银行全球研究分析师在报告中表示：“自我们上次在2月份更新预测以来，布伦特原油价格在3月份与美国区域银行股价一起下跌，但在4月份因欧佩克+宣布大幅减产而回升。”
宏观经济疲软导致布伦特原油价格持续走低
“然而，随着对金融业健康状况的担忧加剧，宏观经济疲软一直在拖累布伦特原油价格走低。”分析师们补充道。
在这份报告中，美国银行全球研究分析师表示，如果有必要，欧佩克+似乎致力于进一步削减石油产量。他们还在报告中提到，在亚洲经济显示出复苏迹象时，油价下跌应该会刺激石油需求。
无论如何，货币收紧往往会比通胀下降提前一两年。分析师在报告中警告说，持续的银行破产有可能引发信贷收缩，从而导致需求和大宗商品价格下跌。
如果美国小型企业在2023年下半年因信贷收缩而停止招聘，汽油需求可能会受到进一步的影响，石油将失去部分核心优势。分析师补充称：“从基本面来看，在2022年经历了一段强劲的现货溢价期后，2023年石油库存上升导致石油横向时间套利的日历价差正在逐步减弱。”
2023年美银布伦特原油预测
在报告中，美国银行全球研究分析师透露，他们已将2023年和2024年的全球石油消费增长预期分别下调至每日120万桶和每日100万桶。分析师在报告中指出，这一减产是由于经合组织预计需求收缩40万桶/天，今年和明年每天收缩20万桶。
“但即使需求前景疲软，我们预计2023年下半年石油市场赤字约为每天100万桶，2024年石油市场赤字为每天40万桶，为布伦特原油价格提供支撑。”分析师在报告中表示。
“诚然，如果欧佩克+选择将其减产幅度再加深50万桶/日或100万桶/日，这些赤字可能会扩大。”分析师补充道。
“由于负面的宏观趋势将放大未来的需求疲软情况，我们将2023年布伦特原油平均价格预测下调至每桶80美元。即便如此，我们仍将2024年布伦特原油价格预测维持在每桶90美元，因为我们相信经合组织的需求最终将会改善，而欧佩克+可能会继续积极主动地管理供应。”分析师们继续说道。
张璐婕 编译自 钻井地带 网站
原文如下：Monetary Forces Are Dragging Down Brent Oil Prices
Monetary forces are dragging down Brent crude prices, BofA Global Research stated in a new report, which revealed that the company has cut its average Brent price forecast for 2023.
“Since we last updated our forecasts in February, Brent crude prices have fallen with regional U.S. bank shares in March only to recover in April as OPEC+ announced a big production cut,” BofA Global Research analysts stated in the report.
'Macro weakness has kept dragging Brent crude prices lower'.
“Yet macro weakness has kept dragging Brent crude prices lower as concerns mounted over the health of the financial sector,” the analysts added.
“While central banks continue to overcorrect for their last policy mistake (high inflation), oil is rushing to anticipate disinflation and a U.S. recession driven by bank failures and tighter lending conditions,” the analysts continued.
“On top of that, U.S. debt ceiling tensions risk further exacerbating these negative macro headwinds, with credit default swaps (CDS) on U.S. Treasuries now trading at the highest levels since 2009,” the analysts went on to note.
In the report, BofA Global Research analysts stated that OPEC+ seems committed to cut oil output further if the need arises. They also said in the report that lower oil prices should incentivize demand at a time Asian economy is showing signs of a recovery.
“At any rate, tighter money tends to precede falling inflation by a year or two. Continued bank failures risk triggering a credit contraction that drags demand down and commodity prices lower,” the analysts warned in the report.
“Should small U.S. businesses stop hiring in 2H23 as credit shrinks, gasoline demand could suffer and oil would lose some of its core strength. Fundamentally, following a robust period of backwardation in 2022, oil timespreads have weakened in 2023 on rising oil inventories,” the analysts added.
2023 BofA Brent Forecast
In the report, the BofA Global Research analysts revealed that they had revised down their global oil consumption growth expectations to 1.2 million barrels per day and one million barrels per day in 2023 and 2024, respectively. The analysts stated in the report that this cut is driven by an expected OECD demand contraction of 0.4 million barrels per day and 0.2 million barrels per day this year and next year.
“But even with a weaker demand outlook, we project oil market deficits of around one million barrels per day for 2H23 and 0.4 million barrels per day for 2024, lending support to Brent crude oil prices,” the analysts said in the report.
“Admittedly, these deficits could grow wider if OPEC+ chooses to deepen its production cuts by another 0.5 million barrels per day or one million barrels per day,” the analysts added.
“With negative macro trends poised to amplify demand weakness ahead, we cut our average Brent crude oil price forecast to $80 per barrel in 2023. Even then, we leave our 2024 Brent crude oil forecast at $90 per barrel because we believe OECD demand will eventually improve while OPEC+ will likely keep proactively and pre-emptively managing supply,” the analysts continued.
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