2023年世界石油需求量将会是多少？

据钻井地带网站报道，今年石油需求将达到何种水平，这取决于你问谁。

例如，国际能源信息署（IEA）在最新发布的《石油市场报告》（OMR）中透露，预计全球石油需求将同比增长220万桶/日，平均达到每日1.02亿桶。IEA在4月份的OMR中提到，全球石油需求每日增长200万桶，达到创纪录的1.019亿桶。

“本次报告将2023年全球石油需求增长预测上调至每日220万桶，其中亚洲的复苏甚至比之前预期的更为强劲。”国际能源信息署在其5月份的OMR中指出。

“作为全球第二大石油消费国，亚洲大国将占2023年全球增长的近60%。亚洲大国、印度和中东地区在年初的创纪录需求超过了全球低迷的工业活动和经济合作与发展组织（OECD）国家的石油消费。”国际能源署信息补充道。

“后者仅占今年增长的15%，受消费支出和个人流动性的支撑。”国际能源署继续表示。

根据美国能源信息署（EIA）最新发布的短期能源展望（STEO），全球石油消费量将在2023年平均达到每日1.0099亿桶。按季度划分，EIA的5月份STEO预计今年第二季度的消费量为1.0082亿桶，第三季度为1.0158亿桶，第四季度为1.0167亿桶。

EIA在4月份发布的上一份STEO预测，2023年全球总需求将达到1.0087亿桶/日。

“尽管液体燃料需求增长在2024年底面临下行风险，但我们预计季节性的石油消费增长和欧佩克原油产量下降将在未来几个月对原油价格施加一定上行压力。”美国能源信息署在其5月份的STEO中指出。

“根据我们的预测，全球液体燃料消费将在2023年增加160万桶/日，2024年增加170万桶/日，而大部分预期的液体燃料需求增长将出现在非OECD亚洲地区，以亚洲大国和印度为主导。”美国能源信息署补充道。

“我们预计这种需求增长将在2023年第三季度至2024年第一季度将全球石油市场推向平衡，并将布伦特原油价格从当前水平推回每桶75美元至80美元。”美国能源信息署继续表示。

在上周发布的一份报告中，渣打银行表示，今年全球石油需求将平均达到每日1.0094亿桶。该报告强调，这一数字比上个月增加了15.6万桶/日。

在渣打银行的最新报告中，他们预测今年第二季度的需求量为1.0047亿桶/日，第三季度为1.0192亿桶/日，第四季度为1.0178亿桶/日。

“目前能源经济学家所观察到的数据与投机交易者所采取的行动之间存在一种脱节。”渣打银行分析师在报告中指出。

“我们认为这种脱节是石油市场情绪越来越受宏观因素主导的结果——我们发现大多数交易者在过去三个月对需求更加悲观。”分析师补充道。

吴奇之 编译自 钻井地带 网站

原文如下：

What Will World Oil Demand Be in 2023?

Where will oil demand land this year? It depends on who you ask.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), for example, revealed in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), which was released this month, that it now projects world oil demand to rise by 2.2 million barrels per day year on year to average 102 million barrels per day. The IEA’s April OMR saw world oil demand climbing by two million barrels per day to “a record 101.9 million barrels per day”.

“Our forecast for world oil demand growth for 2023 has been revised up to 2.2 million barrels per day in this report, with Asian rebound even stronger than previously expected,” the IEA noted in its May OMR.

“The world’s second biggest oil user after the U.S. will account for nearly 60 percent of global growth in 2023. Record demand in the biggest country in Asia, India, and the Middle East at the start of the year more than offset lackluster industrial activity and oil use in the OECD,” the IEA added.

“The latter accounts for just 15 percent of growth this year, supported by consumer spending and personal mobility,” the IEA continued.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was also released this month, total world consumption will average 100.99 million barrels per day in 2023. Broken down quarterly, the EIA’s May STEO sees this consumption coming in at 100.82 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, 101.58 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 101.67 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in April, projected that total world demand would be 100.87 million barrels per day in 2023.

“Although demand growth for liquid fuels faces downside risks through the end of 2024, we expect the seasonal rise in oil consumption and a drop in OPEC crude oil production to put some upward pressure on crude oil prices in the coming months,” the EIA noted in its May STEO.

“Global liquid fuels consumption in our forecast increases by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2023 and by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2024, and most expected liquid fuels demand growth is in non-OECD Asia, led by the biggest country in Asia and India,” the EIA added.

“We expect this demand growth will bring the global oil market into balance between the third quarter of 2023 and 1Q24 and push the Brent price from current levels back to between $75 per barrel and $80 per barrel,” the EIA continued.

In a report sent to Rigzone last week, Standard Chartered revealed that it sees global oil demand averaging 100.94 million barrels per day this year. The figure marks a 156,000 barrel per day increase from last month, the report highlighted.

In its latest report, Standard Chartered forecasts that demand will come in at 100.47 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, 101.92 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 101.78 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

“There appears to be a disconnect between what energy economists are seeing in the data and what speculative traders are acting on,” Standard Chartered analysts noted in the report.

“We think this disconnect is the result of the increasingly top-down and macro-led nature of oil-market sentiment - we find that most traders have become more pessimistic about demand over the past three months,” the analysts added.