世界各地进口商竞相争夺长期液化天然气供应合同

由于需求疲软，全球液化天然气库存量可能处于创纪录高位，但世界各地的进口商仍在竞相寻求获得长期供应合同

去年液化天然气现货市场的飙升凸显了能源安全对进口国的重要性，尤其是亚洲的进口国

由于越来越多的液化天然气被锁定在长期交易中，不愿签署长期交易的欧洲进口商可能会发现自己支付的液化天然气价格要高得多

据油价网2023年5月19日报道，在需求疲软的情况下，全球液化天然气库存量可能已处于创纪录高位，但认真的买家正在展望未来，并竞相寻求签订液化天然气长期供应协议，以确保未来有足够的液化天然气，而不会受到变化无常现货市场的影响。

虽然欧洲人可能不太喜欢长期交易，但亚洲出于能源转型所需肯定喜欢液化天然气长协交易。 石油巨头们也不愿意把液化天然气卖给不喜欢长期交易的欧洲市场。

伍德麦肯兹公布的统计数据显示，自今年年初以来，全球已经完成了大约1300万吨液化天然气的长期交易，去年的增长势头延续到了今年。这家研究公司说，去年全年全球约有8100万吨液化天然气是根据所签订的长期协议供应的。

印度是另一个寻求长期供应保障的液化天然气大买家。彭博新闻社本周报道称，这个次大陆的能源进口商正在寻求长期协议，以减少受价格波动影响的风险，并正在与来自中东的天然气生产国进行谈判。

去年，由于欧盟急于尽可能多地获取这种燃烧清洁的燃料，导致现货市场液化天然气价格飙升，导致国际价格如此之高，一些国家被迫从天然气转向燃煤发电，因为它们负担不起液化天然气的价格。

据彭博新闻社报道，印度最大液化天然气进口商Petronet LNG首席执行官阿克沙伊·库马尔·辛格5月早些时候曾表示：“消费国得到的教训是，不能以现货价格为基础经营业务。”“展望未来，我们将看到很多由不同利益相关者签署的长期合同。”

日本也是液化天然气的大买家。这个能源贫乏的国家的能源消费几乎完全依赖进口，而液化天然气是日本能源进口组合中的重要组成部分。正因为如此，日本是世界上最大的液化天然气进口国，去年夺回了世界第一的位置，尽管液化天然气进口总量略有下降。

伍德麦肯兹表示，卡塔尔是液化天然气买家进口这种燃烧清洁燃料的热门目的地，阿曼也是如此。阿曼在过去几个月达成了许多长期交易，买家包括日本公用事业公司、石油巨头和一家土耳其公司。

伍德麦肯兹指出，由于这种重新燃起的兴趣，气价正在上涨。长期液化天然气合同通常与布伦特原油价格挂钩，在2020年和2021年，平均价格约为原油基准价格的10%/百万英热单位。伍德麦肯兹报告称，现在卖家要求的价格是布伦特原油价格的12.5%及以上，有些交易甚至达到17%。

然而，锁定在长期合同中的液化天然气越多，现货市场上的液化天然气就越少，这表明液化天然气价格可能在某个时候再次飙升，因为目前将在3到4年到期的合同正在被新合同所取代。

重视能源安全的亚洲进口商似乎主导了全球液化天然气长期供应市场，这使得重视向风能和太阳能转型的欧洲不得不为他们在此期间仍将继续需要的天然气支付更高价格。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

The Race To Secure Long-Term LNG Contracts

·     Liquefied natural gas inventories may be at a record high due to weak demand, but importers around the world are looking to secure long-term contracts.

·     The surge in the spot market last year has highlighted the importance of energy security to importers, especially importers in Asia.

·     As more LNG is locked up in long-term deals, European importers who are reluctant to sign on to long-term deals may find themselves paying much higher prices.

Global LNG inventories may be at a record high amid weak demand but serious buyers are looking forward and sealing long-term supply deals to secure enough LNG for the future without exposing themselves to the fickle spot market.

While Europeans may not be huge fans of long-term deals because of their transition plans, Asians definitely like their long-term LNG deals. And so do the supermajors that will then sell this LNG to long-term-averse Europeans.

Since the start of the year, long-term deals worth some 13 million tons annually have been closed, according to Wood Mackenzie, with momentum from last year carrying over to this year. Last year, the research firm said, some 81 million tons annually of LNG were contracted under long-term supply deals.

India is another big LNG buyer with a taste for long-term supply security. Bloomberg reported this week that energy importers on the subcontinent were on the hunt for long-term deals to reduce exposure to price fluctuations and were in talks with producers from the Middle East.

The rush comes after last year’s surge in spot market LNG prices after the European Union rushed to secure as much of the fuel as it could, pushing international prices so high some countries were forced to switch from gas to coal for energy generation because they couldn’t afford the gas in liquefied form.

“The lesson learned by the consumers is that they can’t run the business based on spot,” Akshay Kumar Singh, chief executive of Petronet LNG, said earlier this month, as quoted by Bloomberg. “Going forward, we will be finding a lot of long-term contracts signed by different stakeholders.”

Japan is also a big buyer of LNG. The energy-poor country is almost entirely dependent on imports for its energy consumption, and LNG is a big part of the import mix. Because of that, Japan is the world’s largest LNG importer, retaking the top spot last year even though total LNG imports declined slightly.

Qatar is a popular destination for LNG buyers, and so is Oman, according to Wood Mackenzie. The latter has seen a number of long-term deals sealed in the past few months, with buyers including Japanese utilities, the supermajors, and a Turkish one.

As a result of this renewed interest, the research firm noted, prices are on the rise. Long-term LNG contracts are normally indexed to Brent crude prices, and in 2020 and 2021, the average pricing was some 10% of the benchmark per 1 million British thermal units. Now, sellers are asking for 12.5% of Brent and above, with some deals reaching 17%, Wood Mackenzie reports.

The more LNG is locked in long-term contracts, however, the less LNG there is on the spot market, which suggests prices may see another surge at some point as contracts expiring in three to four years are currently being replaced with new ones.

Asian importers who are serious about their energy security seem to dominate the long-term supply market, which leaves Europeans, who are serious about their transition to wind and solar, to pay higher prices for the gas they would continue needing in the meantime.