亚洲LNG现货价格因需求疲软跌至两年低点

据天然气加工新闻网5月19日报道，由于需求疲软和库存高企，亚洲现货液化天然气(LNG)价格跌至两年来的最低水平，而欧洲液化天然气价格也跌破10美元，原因是库存增加走势稳定，当前天然气额外供应需求有限。

据业内消息人士估计，7月份交付东北亚的液化天然气均价较前一周下降6.6%，至9.8美元/百万英热单位，为2021年5月以来的最低水平。

Trident液化天然气公司全球贸易主管Toby Copson表示，由于总体需求仍然不足，价格继续徘徊在10美元以下。并补充道，“远期曲线显示出良好的期货溢价(期货价格高于现货价格)，因此我们预计随着天气变得更加极端，需求将会回升；8月份的预订量应该是我们看到大型公司购买活动增加的时候”。

研究咨询公司Energy Aspects的液化天然气市场分析师Leo Kabouche表示，南亚买家继续主导现货招标活动，泰国的热浪正在给水力发电带来压力，可能会促使需求增加。

大宗商品定价机构阿格斯液化天然气定价主管塞缪尔•古德（Samuel Good）表示，从夏末到初冬，东北亚的LNG价格一直处于溢价状态，这表明今年晚些时候可能存在向东北亚买家出售美国和西非LNG的价格激励因素，不过问题是东北亚的需求是否足以吸收大西洋的大量供应。

Good补充道，尽管美国、阿曼和卡塔尔的LNG终端计划进行维护，以及挪威Hammerfest持续的计划外停工，但大西洋盆地的货物供应仍然充足，并将保持强劲。

在欧洲，PZ-energy Research & Strategy首席能源经济学家Hans Van Cleef表示，由于天然气需求下降，欧洲的高库存已达到65%，短期内供应不会成为问题，因此向欧洲出售非合同液化天然气的经济驱动力正在减弱。并补充道，然而如果在几个月的收缩后，由于经济反弹，或者由于极端炎热的夏季或寒冷的冬季，或者如果世界上的其他大宗消费方开始购买液化天然气，这将导致欧洲液化天然气供应量降低，那么从长远来看，可能会形成风险。

据《大西洋LNG》执行主编Allen Reed称，5月18日，标准普尔全球商品洞察评估了7月份在目的港船上交货(DES)基础上交付的西北欧液化天然气(NWM)每日价格基准为8.427美元/百万英热单位，较荷兰天然气TTF枢纽7月份的天然气价格低1.220美元/百万英热单位。

5月18日，大宗商品定价机构评估NWE DES的价格为8.25美元/百万英热单位，较TTF天然气价格低1.42美元。

Spark Commodities分析师Edward Armitage表示，本周液化天然气现货运费进一步下跌，创下2022年夏季以来的新低，周五大西洋现货运费降至36000美元/天，太平洋现货运费降至39750美元/天。

郝芬 译自 天然气加工新闻网

原文如下：

Asian spot LNG prices slip to 2-year low on tepid demand

Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices slipped to their lowest level in two years on weak demand and high inventories, while European LNG prices also fell below the $10 mark amid healthy stock build and limited need for additional supply.

The average LNG price for July delivery into northeast Asia was down 6.6% from the previous week at $9.8 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), the lowest since May 2021, industry sources estimated.

"Prices continue to linger sub $10 as general demand remains lacking," said Toby Copson, global head of trading at Trident LNG.

"The forwards curve shows healthy contango (where the futures price is higher than the spot price), so we expect demand should pick up as the weather gets more extreme. August bookings should be when we see more activity from the bigger players," he added.

Leo Kabouche, LNG market analyst at research consultancy Energy Aspects, said South Asian buyers continued to dominate spot tenders, with a heatwave in Thailand that is pressuring the country’s hydropower output likely to generate incremental demand.

Samuel Good, head of LNG pricing at commodity pricing agency Argus said that the contango present in northeast Asian through late summer and early winter suggests there could be a price incentive to market U.S. and West African cargoes to northeast Asian buyers later this year, though the question is whether northeast Asian demand could be sufficient to absorb a significant swathe of Atlantic supply.

Good added that cargo availability remains ample and is set to remain strong in the Atlantic basin despite planned maintenance in the United States, Oman and Qatar, and an ongoing unplanned downtime at Norway’s Hammerfest.

In Europe, Hans Van Cleef, chief energy economist at PZ - Energy Research & Strategy said that the economic driver to sell the non-contracted LNG to Europe is diminishing due to lower gas demand and Europe's high inventories that are 65% full which will not be a problem in the near term.

"However, it could form a risk for the longer term if demand starts to pick up due to economic rebound after a few months of contraction, or due to extremely hot summer or cold winter, or if other consumers in the world start to buy this LNG which would lower the availability of LNG towards Europe in times when it is necessary," he added.

S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily north-west Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in July on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $8.427/mmBtu on May 18, a $1.220/mmBtu discount to the July gas price at the Dutch gas TTF hub, according to Allen Reed, managing editor of Atlantic LNG.

Argus assessed the NWE DES price at $8.25/mmBtu on May 18, a $1.42 discount to TTF gas price.

Spot LNG freight rates weakened further this week, touching new lows since summer 2022, with the Atlantic spot rates falling to $36,000/day on Friday, and the Pacific rates falling to $39,750/day, according to Edward Armitage, an analyst at Spark Commodities.