美国WTI米德兰原油6月1日起加入布伦特一揽子原油等级体系

从6月1日开始，美国WTI米德兰原油加入布伦特一揽子原油等级

布伦特原油过去由5个产自北海5个油田的原油等级组成

将美国WTI米德兰原油纳入布伦特一揽子能源等级体系增加了额外的交易量，并确保了基准的稳健性

据油价网2023年6月1日报道，从6月1日开始，美国WTI米德兰原油将成为构成全球交易量最大基准合约的布伦特一揽子原油等级的一部分。

这将是第一个被纳入布伦特一揽子原油等级的非欧洲原油等级，突显了美国页岩革命给全球石油市场带来的变化。

全球大型评级机构负责石油市场价格报告的维拉·布莱曾在2020年表示：“自2015年美国原油出口重启以来，美国WTI米德兰原油已成为欧洲炼油厂的基本等级，也是北海石油市场的一个核心部分。”

布莱补充说，将WTI米德兰原油纳入布伦特一揽子原油等级，“将提供额外的交易量，并确保布伦特原油现货价格在未来十年乃至更长时间内保持强劲”。

彭博新闻社3年前报道了该评级机构将美国原油纳入布伦特基准的计划，但可以理解的是，这些计划因疫情暴发而失去了关注。但现在，疫情不再是所有地方的头号新闻，该评级机构的计划重新进入了新闻领域，从6月1日开始，这一变化已成为事实。

布伦特原油过去由布伦特、埃科菲斯克、特罗尔、福蒂斯和奥塞贝格5个北海油田生产的5个等级原油组成。但这5个油田的原油日总产量已从2020年底的约85万桶降至不足70万桶。

与此同时，美国出口的原油在不到10年的时间里飙升了700%以上。从2015年底出口禁令解除后的每天约50万桶，到目前为止，美国原油日出口量已经扩大到400多万桶。

美国每天运往欧洲的原油已经超过100万桶，3月份更达到125万桶。这种情况不太可能在短期内改变。  

该评级机构原油和燃料油市场主管4月份曾对路透社表示，由于其炼油资源与多数北海原油等级相似，美国WTI米德兰原油毫无疑问是最佳候选者。

与布伦特、埃科菲斯克、特罗尔、福蒂斯和奥塞贝格油田的产量不同，美国WTI米德兰原油的产量在过去十年中增长强劲，因此WTI米德兰原油也是最佳候选者。通过将WTI米德兰原油纳入布伦特一揽子原油等级，该评级机构将使该篮子更准确地代表石油实物贸易状况。

然而，更有趣的部分是WTI米德兰原油的加入将如何影响价格。一些分析人士认为，由于美国原油价格更便宜，美国原油的加入将使布伦特原油整体价格随之下降。其他人则指出，这将增加美国原油对全球油价的影响。

IBC Private Wealth美国高级能源交易员丽贝卡·巴宾在4月份对路透社表示：“布伦特原油的底线是，它将更多地受到美国基本面因素的影响，比如战略石油储备的释放和二叠纪盆地的产量。”

萨里清洁能源公司主管Adi Imsirovic本周告诉《华尔街日报》：“一旦这成为一个基准，就会对所有其他等级原油产生影响。这种影响将持续下去，不仅因为现在布伦特基准原油中增加了一个美国原油等级。这是因为美国的原油生产，即使以较慢的速度增长，也将继续比欧洲的原油生产强劲得多。”

毕竟，英国潜在的未来首相刚刚发誓，如果他的工党赢得下次选举，他将禁止在北海开采新的石油和天然气。也许在未来，布伦特原油将变得更加国际化。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

U.S. Crude Joins Biggest Oil Benchmark

·     Starting today, WTI Midland will be added to the Brent basket of crude grades.

·     Brent used to be made up of five oil grades, produced at five North Sea fields.

·     The inclusion of WTI to the Brent baskets adds additional volume and ensures the robustness of the benchmark.

Starting today, U.S. oil will be part of the Brent crude basket that underlies the world's most traded benchmark contract.

It will be the first non-European grade included in the basket, highlighting the change that the U.S. shale revolution brought about for the global oil market.

"Since the restart of U.S. crude exports in 2015, WTI Midland has become a baseload grade for European refiners and a core part of the North Sea oil market," Vera Blei, who is in charge of oil market price reporting at the top rating agency, said in 2020.

At the time, she added that the inclusion of WTI to the Brent basket "would provide additional volume and ensure the continued robustness of Dated Brent for the next decade and beyond."

Bloomberg reported on the ratings agency's plans to include U.S. crude in the Brent benchmark three years ago, but these plans understandably lost the spotlight to Covid. But now that the pandemic is not the number-one news everywhere,its plans re-entered the news space and, beginning today, the change is a fact.

Brent used to be made up of five oil grades, produced at five North Sea fields: Brent, Ekofisk, Troll, Forties, and Oseberg. But the combined production of these five fields has fallen to less than 700,000 bpd from some 850,000 bpd in late 2020.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil sold abroad has soared by more than 700% in less than ten years. From about half a million barrels daily right after the export ban was lifted at the end of 2015, to date, U.S. crude oil exports have expanded to over 4 million barrels daily.

U.S. crude arriving in Europe specifically has topped 1 million barrels daily, reaching 1.25 million bpd in March. This is unlikely to change anytime soon as the EU, to its own displeasure perhaps, still uses quite a lot of oil and has to get it from somewhere that is not the largger producer. What better source than the U.S.?

"WTI Midland is the best candidate for this because it already has a fairly similar refining slate to most of the North Sea grades," said its director for crude and fuel oil markets in April, speaking to Reuters.

It is also the best candidate because its production has been growing strongly in the past decade, unlike the production of Brent, Ekofisk, Troll, Forties, and Oseberg. By including WTI Midland in the Brent basket, this top rating agency will make that basket more accurately representative of the physical oil trade situation.

The more interesting part, however, is how the addition of WTI Midland would affect prices. Some analysts argue that, because it is cheaper, the addition of the U.S. crude will bring overall Brent prices down with it. Others note that the addition would increase the influence of U.S. events on global oil prices.

"Bottom line for Brent is that it will be much more influenced by U.S. fundamentals such as Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases and Permian production," Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at IBC Private Wealth US, told Reuters in April.

"once you become a benchmark, you have influence over all the other grades of crude," Surrey Clean Energy director Adi Imsirovic told the Wall Street Journal this week.

This influence will continue, not only because there is now a U.S. crude grade added to the Brent benchmark. It is because U.S. oil production, even at a slower growth rate, will continue to be much stronger than European production.

After all, Britain's potential future Prime Minister just vowed to ban new oil and gas licensing for the North Sea if his Labour Party wins the next elections. Perhaps in the future, Brent crude will become even more international.