据天然气加工新闻网5月30日报道，当地时间5月30日，美国天然气期货价格下跌约4%，由于美国产量创历史新高，预计未来两周美国天气将较此前预期温和，需求也将低于此前预期。
作为华盛顿债务限额协议的一部分，美国能源公司Equitrans Midstream Corp拖延已久的从西弗吉尼亚州到弗吉尼亚州价值66亿美元Mountain Valley天然气管道可能会获得联邦批准。
受此消息影响，Equitrans股价大涨约43%至8.70美元，有望创下2022年9月以来的最高收盘价。
如果Equitrans能够在2023年底或2024年初完成Mountain Valley项目，它将增加宾夕法尼亚州、西弗吉尼亚州和俄亥俄州阿巴拉契亚盆地的燃料产量。阿巴拉契亚盆地是美国最大的页岩气产区。
阿巴拉契亚地区的生产商已经生产了几乎所有他们能运出该地区的天然气，但盆地外缘的管道已近饱和。
根据美国商品期货交易委员会的交易员承诺报告，尽管上周天然气价格下跌了约16%，但投机者连续第二周将其在纽约商品交易所和洲际交易所的净多头期货和期权头寸提高到2022年6月以来的最高水平。
在现货市场，美国东部的温和天气使新英格兰和宾夕法尼亚州西部枢纽的次日电价分别降至2021年3月和2021年12月以来的最低水平。
在美国西部，温和的天气和充足的发电量将南加州边境次日天然气价格推至每百万英热单位1.60美元，为2020年7月以来的最低水平。
供求关系
据数据提供商Refinitiv表示，到目前为止，5月份美国本土48个州的平均天然气日产量上升至每天1017亿立方英尺，这将超过4月份1014亿立方英尺的月度水平。
与此同时，根据Refinitiv的数据显示，周二从加拿大流向美国的天然气量有望从周一的每天72亿立方英尺上升至每天76亿立方英尺。
本月迄今，加拿大天然气日出口量已从5月4日85亿立方英尺（近6周高点）降至5月17日的64亿立方英尺（25个月低点），由于艾伯塔省的野火导致能源公司石油和天然气产量降低。
相比之下，自年初以来，加拿大对美国的日均出口量为83亿立方英尺，2022年为90亿立方英尺。在美国消费或出口的天然气中，约有8%来自加拿大。
据气象学家预测，到6月14日，美国本土48个州的天气将保持接近正常水平，只是上半月将有几天比平均气温热。
Refinitiv预测，随着季节性天气转暖，包括出口在内的美国天然气需求将从本周的每天894亿桶上升至下周的每天929亿桶。这些预测低于Refinitiv上周五的预测。
郝芬 译自 天然气加工新闻网
原文如下：
U.S. natgas futures drop 4% on record U.S. output, lower demand forecast
U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 4% on Tuesday on record U.S. output and forecasts for milder U.S. weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
U.S. energy company Equitrans Midstream Corp's long-delayed $6.6 billion Mountain Valley gas pipe from West Virginia to Virginia could win federal approval as part of Washington's debt limit deal.
Shares in Equitrans jumped about 43% to $8.70 on the news, putting the stock on track for its highest close since September 2022.
If Equitrans is able to complete Mountain Valley in late 2023 or early 2024, it would boost the amount of fuel producers could pull out of the ground in the Appalachia basin in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio, the nation's biggest shale gas producing region.
Producers in Appalachia are already producing about all the gas they can ship out of the region since the pipes out of the basin are close to full.
That, however, was still up about 6% from where the June contract expired when it was still the front-month on Friday before the long U.S. Memorial Day weekend. That settle for the June contract was the lowest for the front-month since May 5.
Even though gas prices dropped about 16% last week, speculators boosted their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a second week in a row to their highest since June 2022, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.
In the spot market, mild weather in the U.S. East pressured next-day power prices for Tuesday to their lowest since March 2021 in New England and December 2021 at the PJM Western Hub in western Pennsylvania.
In the U.S. West, mild weather and ample hydropower pushed next-day gas prices for Tuesday at the Southern California Border to $1.60 per mmBtu, their lowest since July 2020.
Supply and demand
Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 101.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, which would top April's monthly record of 101.4 bcfd.
The amount of gas flowing from Canada to the U.S., meanwhile, was on track to rise to 7.6 bcfd on Tuesday, up from 7.2 bcfd on Monday, according to Refinitiv.
So far this month, Canadian exports have dropped from a six-week high of 8.5 bcfd on May 4 to a 25-month low of 6.4 bcfd on May 17 as wildfires in Alberta caused energy firms to cut oil and gas production.
That compares with average Canada-to-U.S. exports of 8.3 bcfd since the start of the year and 9.0 bcfd in 2022. about 8% of the gas consumed in, or exported from, the U.S. comes from Canada.
Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain near normal through June 14 with a couple of warmer than normal days on June 1-2 and June 13-14.
Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 89.4 bcfd this week to 92.9 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally warmer. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv forecast on Friday.
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