IEA：2023年全球清洁能源支出将达1.7万亿美元

据油气新闻网5月27日报道，2023年，全球对清洁能源的投资将增至1.7万亿美元，太阳能投资将首次超过对石油生产的投资。

据IEA的一份新报告称，由于全球能源危机引发的可负担性和安全担忧加强了支持更可持续能源选择的趋势，清洁能源技术的投资远远超过化石燃料支出。

根据IEA最新的《世界能源投资报告》，2023年，全球将在能源方面投资约2.8万亿美元，其中超过1.7万亿美元将用于清洁技术，包括可再生能源、电动汽车、核能、电网、存储、低排放燃料、效率提高和热泵。

据该报告称，剩余略高于1万亿美元的费用将用于煤炭、天然气和石油。

在可再生能源和电动汽车的推动下，2021年至2023年间，清洁能源年度投资预计将增长24%，而同期化石燃料投资增长15%。

但该报告补充道，其中90%以上的增长来自发达经济体和亚洲，如果其他地方不加快清洁能源转型，全球能源将面临新的分界线的严重风险。

IEA表示，清洁能源的发展速度很快，比许多人意识到的要快。这在投资趋势中很明显，清洁技术正在从化石燃料中撤出。

IEA认为，现在每投资一美元在化石燃料上，就有大约1.7美元用于清洁能源。五年前，这一比例是一比一。一个突出的例子是对太阳能的投资，将首次超过对石油生产的投资。

以太阳能为主导的低排放电力技术预计将占发电投资的近90%。

消费者也在投资于更多电气化的最终用途。据IEA的报告称，自2021年以来，全球热泵销量实现了两位数的年增长，而电动汽车销量在2022年激增后，预计今年将跃升三分之一。

近年来，清洁能源投资受到多种因素的推动，其中包括经济强劲增长和化石燃料价格波动，这引发了对能源安全的担忧。

据该报告称，通过美国《通胀削减法案》等重大行动以及欧洲、日本等其他地方的举措加强的政策支持也发挥了作用。

预计2023年上游油气支出将增长7%，恢复到2019年的水平。投资超过疫情前的少数几家石油公司大多是中东地区的大型国有石油公司。

报告称，由于燃料价格上涨，许多化石燃料生产商去年获得了历史最高水平的利润，但大部分现金流都用于分红、股票回购和偿还债务，而不是回到传统的供应中。

尽管如此，化石燃料投资的预期反弹意味着，2023年，化石燃料投资将增加到国际能源署2050年净零排放愿景中2030年所需水平的两倍以上。全球煤炭需求在2022年达到历史最高水平，今年的煤炭投资有望达到2030年净零愿景所设想水平的六倍多。

数据显示，2022年，石油和天然气行业在清洁电力、清洁燃料和碳捕获技术等低排放替代品上的资本支出不到其上游支出的5%。

这一水平与去年相比几乎没有变化——尽管一些较大的欧洲公司的份额更高。

清洁能源投资的最大缺口是新兴经济体和发展中经济体。有一些亮点，例如印度对太阳能，巴西和中东部分地区对可再生能源的动态投资。

然而，许多国家的投资受到利率上升、政策框架和市场设计不明确、电网基础设施薄弱、公用事业财务紧张以及资本成本高等因素的阻碍。

国际社会还需要做更多的工作，特别是在推动私营部门一直不愿冒险的低收入经济体的投资方面。

郝芬 译自 油气新闻网

原文如下：

Global spend on clean energy to hit $1.7 trillion in 2023:IEA

Global investment in clean energy is on course to rise to $1.7 trillion in 2023, with solar set to eclipse oil production for the first time.

Investment in clean energy technologies is significantly outpacing spending on fossil fuels as affordability and security concerns triggered by the global energy crisis strengthen the momentum behind more sustainable options, according to a new IEA report.

about $2.8 trillion is set to be invested globally in energy in 2023, of which more than $1.7 trillion is expected to go to clean technologies – including renewables, electric vehicles, nuclear power, grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, efficiency improvements and heat pumps – according to the IEA’s latest World Energy Investment report.

The remainder, slightly more than $1 trillion, is going to coal, gas and oil, it stated.

Annual clean energy investment is expected to rise by 24% between 2021 and 2023, driven by renewables and electric vehicles, compared with a 15% rise in fossil fuel investment over the same period.

But more than 90% of this increase comes from advanced economies and Asia, presenting a serious risk of new dividing lines in global energy if clean energy transitions don’t pick up elsewhere, the report added.

IEA said: "Clean energy is moving fast – faster than many people realise. This is clear in the investment trends, where clean technologies are pulling away from fossil fuels."

"For every dollar invested in fossil fuels, about $1.7 is now going into clean energy. Five years ago, this ratio was one-to-one. One shining example is investment in solar, which is set to overtake the amount of investment going into oil production for the first time," he added.

Led by solar, low-emissions electricity technologies are expected to account for almost 90% of investment in power generation.

Consumers are also investing in more electrified end-uses. Global heat pump sales have seen double-digit annual growth since 2021, while electric vehicle sales are expected to leap by a third this year after already surging in 2022, said the IEA report.

Clean energy investments have been boosted by a variety of factors in recent years, including periods of strong economic growth and volatile fossil fuel prices that raised concerns about energy security, especially following the war.

Enhanced policy support through major actions like the US Inflation Reduction Act and initiatives in Europe, Japan and elsewhere have also played a role, it stated.

Spending on upstream oil and gas is expected to rise by 7% in 2023, taking it back to 2019 levels. The few oil companies that are investing more than before the Covid-19 pandemic are mostly large national oil companies in the Middle East.

Many fossil fuel producers made record profits last year because of higher fuel prices, but the majority of this cash flow has gone to dividends, share buybacks and debt repayment – rather than back into traditional supply, it said.

Nonetheless, the expected rebound in fossil fuel investment means it is set to rise in 2023 to more than double the levels needed in 2030 in the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. Global coal demand reached an all-time high in 2022, and coal investment this year is on course to reach nearly six times the levels envisaged in 2030 in the Net Zero Scenario.

According to IEQA, the oil and gas industry’s capital spending on low-emissions alternatives such as clean electricity, clean fuels and carbon capture technologies was less than 5% of its upstream spending in 2022.

That level was little changed from last year – though the share is higher for some of the larger European companies.

The biggest shortfalls in clean energy investment are in emerging and developing economies. There are some bright spots, such as dynamic investments in solar in India and in renewables in Brazil and parts of the Middle East.

However, investment in many countries is being held back by factors including higher interest rates, unclear policy frameworks and market designs, weak grid infrastructure, financially strained utilities, and a high cost of capital.

Much more needs to be done by the international community, especially to drive investment in lower-income economies, where the private sector has been reluctant to venture.