据管道&天然气杂志网6月5日报道，据分析师周一表示，美国原油出口已接近3月触及的历史高位，下个月应会进一步受到沙特阿拉伯大幅减产的提振，并指出这也将进一步耗尽一直徘徊在历史低点附近的美国原油库存。
石油生产国组织欧佩克事实上的领导人沙特阿拉伯周日表示，7月份将减产约10%，即100万桶/日，至900万桶/日。其表示，可能会维持减产，以支持因担心潜在经济衰退而下跌的油价。
据分析师表示，此举为美国和拉丁美洲对欧洲和亚洲的石油出口小幅增加打开了大门，并让美国生产商重新相信，如果经济衰退导致需求下降，沙特将提供一个价格底线。
数据提供商Kpler的石油分析师马特·史密斯表示，这应该激励美国出口增加，鉴于夏季炼油活动即将达到峰值，美国出口似乎将面临下行压力。
因极具竞争力的美国价格提升了需求，美国3月份的石油出口达到了历史最高水平的450万桶/日。出口约占美国产量的三分之一，尽管该国原油库存已降至8.15亿桶的低点附近。
沙特阿拉伯在5月早些时候实施了50万桶/日的减产后，愿意深化减产，这将影响沙特的出口，而沙特的出口通常在夏季下降。
纽约桑基研究公司（Sankey Research）的独立分析师保罗·桑基(Paul Sankey)表示，重要的是，他们在夏季沙特国内需求达到顶峰时减产，这意味着他们将削减出口。
该消息传出后，美国石油基准CLc1和全球布伦特原油基准分别上涨约1美元/桶。周一，布伦特原油LCOc1的交易价格约为77.28美元，低于沙特阿拉伯为其政府预算提供资金所需的每桶约80美元。
美国页岩油产量全年都在小幅上升，预计本月将达到571万桶/天。但其相对缓慢的增长速度使美国基本上不在欧佩克对最新减产的考虑范围之内。
得克萨斯州页岩公司Tall City Exploration的首席执行官Mike Oestmann表示，欧佩克的“决定支持近期小幅提价，并可能使长期提价提前一点”。并补充道，但（对钻探的）近期影响充其量是中等的。
然而，过去几个月，产能大国产量和出口的不确定性、高运费以及WTI和布伦特原油价格之间的窄幅价差削弱了美国原油出口的经济性，可能会限制出口。
郝芬 译自 管道&天然气杂志网
原文如下：
US Crude Oil Exports to Gain Tail Winds from Saudi July Output Cut
U.S. crude oil exports, already running close to a record level hit in March, should get a further boost next month from deep production cuts in Saudi Arabia, analysts said on Monday, noting that this will also further deplete U.S. crude inventories, which have been hovering near historic lows.
Saudi Arabia, de facto leader of oil producer group OPEC, said on Sunday it would drop its production by about 10%, or 1 million barrels per day (bpd), to 9 million bpd in July. It said it might sustain the cut to support oil prices that have dropped due to worries about a potential economic recession.
The move opens the door for modest gains in U.S. and Latin American shipments to Europe and Asia, analysts said, and gives U.S. producers new confidence that Saudi Arabia will provide a price floor should a recession clip demand.
"This could and should incentivize higher U.S. exports, which were looking like they would be under downward pressure given the looming peak of summer refining activity," said Matt Smith, an oil analyst at data provider Kpler.
U.S. oil exports touched a record 4.5 million bpd in March with China's growing oil purchases and competitive U.S. pricing lifting demand. The exports are about a third of U.S. production, even as the country's crude oil stocks are down near the low levels recorded at 815 million barrels.
Saudi Arabia's willingness to deepen its output cuts — after an earlier 500,000 bpd trim effective in May — will dig into the Kingdom's exports, which typically fall in summer.
"It's significant that they cut in summer (when) Saudi domestic demand is at a peak. To me, it says they'll cut exports," said Paul Sankey, an independent analyst at Sankey Research in New York.
U.S. oil benchmark CLc1 and global Brent benchmark each climbed about $1 per barrel on the news. Brent LCOc1 traded at about $77.28 on Monday, below the about $80 per barrel that Saudi Arabia needs to fund its government budget.
U.S. shale oil production has been inching higher all year and is forecast to hit 5.71 million bpd this month. But its relatively slow rate of growth has left the U.S. largely out of OPEC's calculations for the latest cuts.
OPEC's "decision supports some modest price increase near term and may bring that long term increase forward a bit," said Mike Oestmann, chief executive of Tall City Exploration, a Texas shale firm. "But the near-term impact (on drilling) is moderate at best," he added.
Uncertainty around the largger producer's output and exports, high freight rates and a narrow spread between WTI and Brent prices that weakened the economics of shipping U.S. crude abroad in the last couple of months could, however, limit exports.
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