据油价网2023年6月5日报道，分析师在本周末欧佩克+会议结束后表示，由于沙特阿拉伯6月4日宣布减产100万桶的消息将进一步收紧全球石油市场，布伦特原油价格可能在今年年底前达到每桶100美元。
欧佩克+产油国决定将目前的减产目标维持到2024年底，而欧佩克最大的产油国和世界最大的原油出口国沙特阿拉伯表示，将在7月份自愿再次将原油日产量减少100万桶，至900万桶左右。沙特阿拉伯能源大臣阿卜杜勒阿齐兹亲王周日表示，沙特阿拉伯的减产可能会延长到7月以后，他把欧佩克+宣布的减产决定描述为“沙特棒棒糖”。
澳大利亚联邦银行分析师Vivek Dhar在路透社发表的一份报告中称，“由于沙特阿拉伯通过减产来保护油价不跌至过低水平，我们认为今年晚些时候石油市场更容易出现供应短缺”。
Dhar补充说，即使今年下半年亚洲的石油需求没有预期的那么强劲，到今年第四季度，布伦特原油期货价格也将升至每桶85美元。
6月5日欧洲早盘，布伦特原油交易价格为每桶77美元，当日上涨1%。
澳新银行(ANZ)分析师Daniel Hynes和Soni Kumari重申了今年年底布伦特原油价格目标为每桶100美元，并表示：“投资者可能会增加看涨押注，因为他们相信，如果市场遇到任何障碍，沙特阿拉伯和欧佩克将提供支撑。”
澳新银行指出：“现在看来，今年下半年石油市场的供应将更加紧张。”
高盛公司预计今年12月份布伦特原油价格为每桶95美元，并将欧佩克+6月会议延长减产决定描述为“适度看涨”，抵消了一些看跌的下行风险。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Analysts Reiterate Calls For $100 Oil As Saudi Arabia Cuts Production
Brent prices could hit $100 by the end of this year as the new 1 million bpd production cut Saudi Arabia announced on Sunday would further tighten the oil market, analysts said after the OPEC+ meeting this weekend.
The OPEC+ producers decided to keep the current cuts until the end of 2024, while OPEC’s top producer and the world’s largest crude oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, said it would voluntarily reduce its production by 1 million bpd in July, to around 9 million bpd. The Saudi cut could be extended beyond July, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz said on Sunday, describing the announced reduction as a “Saudi lollipop.”
“With Saudi Arabia protecting oil prices from sliding too low by cutting production, we think oil markets are now more prone to a shortfall later this year,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note carried by Reuters.
Even if China’s oil demand is not as strong in the second half of this year as expected, Brent Crude futures are set to rise to $85 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2023, Dhar added.
Early on Monday in Europe, Brent Crude traded at $77 per barrel, up by 1% on the day.
ANZ analysts Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari reiterated their $100 per barrel Brent target for the end of the year, saying that “Investors are likely to add bullish bets, comfortable that Saudi Arabia and OPEC will provide a backstop should the market hit any hurdles.”
“The oil market now looks like it will be even tighter in the second half of the year,” ANZ noted.
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