据油气新闻网6月14日报道，国际能源署(IEA)表示，疫情后复苏对石油需求增长的提振将于今年结束，由于经济挑战和向更清洁燃料的过渡将从2024年开始削弱增长。
IEA执行主任法提赫·比罗尔表示，向清洁能源经济的转变正在加快，随着电动汽车、能源效率和其他技术的进步，全球石油需求有望在本世纪二十年代末达到峰值。
IEA在周三发布的月度报告中称，2023年全球石油需求将增加240万桶/日，达到历史最高水平的1.023亿桶/日。
然而，该机构预计，经济阻力将使明年的产量增幅降至86万桶/日，而电动汽车的使用增加将有助于在2028年将其降至40万桶/日，总需求为1.057亿桶/日。
IEA表示，在能源安全担忧加剧的情况下，地缘政治冲突爆发，以及各国政府在疫情后时代的恢复支出计划，加速了增幅的放缓。到2030年，将调动超过2万亿美元用于清洁能源投资。
IEA补充称，不包括生物燃料、石化原料和其他非能源使用在内，对来自可燃化石燃料的石油需求将在2028年达到8160万桶/日的峰值。
郝芬 译自 油气新闻网
原文如下：
Economic outlook, energy transition to curb oil demand:IEA
The boost to oil demand growth from the post-pandemic recovery is set to end this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, with economic challenges and the transition to cleaner fuels sapping growth from 2024.
"The shift to a clean energy economy is picking up pace, with a peak in global oil demand in sight before the end of this decade as electric vehicles, energy efficiency and other technologies advance,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
Global oil demand will grow by 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 to a record 102.3 million bpd, the IEA said in its monthly report on Wednesday.
However, the agency expects economic headwinds to reduce growth to 860,000 bpd next year and increasing use of electric vehicles to help to reduce that to 400,000 bpd in 2028 for overall demand of 105.7 million bpd.
"The slowdown has been hastened by the war amid heightened energy security concerns and by governments’ post-Covid recovery spending plans, with more than $2 trillion mobilised for clean energy investments by 2030," the IEA said.
Demand for oil from combustible fossil fuels, excluding biofuels, petrochemical feedstocks and other non-energy uses, is set to peak at 81.6 million bpd in 2028, it added.
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