太阳能成本大幅下降将扰动全球能源市场

据钻机地带6月14日报道，根据澳大利亚智库气候能源金融（CEF）的一项新研究，太阳能成本将在2030年前减半，这将加速全球能源市场的混乱，同时推动能源转型。

CEF在其“太阳能枢纽”报告中预测，2023年太阳能安装量将达到历史最高水平，同比增长30%～50%。据该报告称，到2030年，随着全球太阳能组件供应链的“急剧扩张”和本十年剩余时间太阳能成本的回落，太阳能年总安装量可能达到1000吉瓦。

CEF表示，IEA“一直低估了太阳能部署的速度、太阳能发电成本的大幅下降，以及相应地对全球化石燃料行业的破坏”。

据《国际能源署2022年世界能源展望》报告估计，在2050年实现净零排放的情况下，到2030年，太阳能年装机量将达462吉瓦。CEF预计，“全球装机的制造能力可能是这个数字的两倍”。

据报告称，太阳能投资正在“蓬勃发展”，2023年这一趋势正在加速。对于越来越多的全球市场来说，太阳能是新发电成本最低的来源，即使不包括碳排放价格。

与此同时，CEF的报告称，太阳能组件的关键原材料多晶硅的价格自2022年12月以来下降了三分之二，至2023年6月的每公斤11美元，导致太阳能组件价格较2021年下降了三分之一，到2023年5月的每瓦18美分。自2021年底达到峰值以来，全球货运成本也下降了80%以上。CEF预计，本十年太阳能电力成本每年将进一步下降10%，到2030年减半。

太阳能安装趋势

CEF报告指出，彭博新能源财经(BNEF)估计，2022年全球太阳能装机容量达到历史最高水平268吉瓦，而2022年底全球太阳能组件制造装机容量为600吉瓦。CEF预测，如果目前宣布的大部分太阳能产能扩张计划继续下去，到2024—2025年，产能将翻一番。据该报告称，大多数扩建项目将在亚洲大国实施，但美国、印度和欧盟(EU)的计划扩建产能也将是目前的三到五倍。

十年来，太阳能的年装机量每年都创历史新高。据报告称，2022年，亚洲大国太阳能累计装机容量达到414.5吉瓦，居世界首位，其次是欧盟209.3吉瓦，美国141.6吉瓦，日本84.9吉瓦，印度79.1吉瓦。

根据印度中央电力局更新的《国家电力计划》，印度将在未来五年内避免建造新的煤电厂，因为它的目标是增加可再生能源的使用。该计划被视为朝着印度到2030年提高可再生能源在其能源结构中的份额的目标迈出的一步，到2030年将其非化石燃料能源发电量提高到500吉瓦。截至2023年4月，印度安装了125吉瓦的可再生能源，占该国总装机发电量的30%。

根据该报告，印度引入了40%的太阳能组件进口税和太阳能性能挂钩计划（PLI），以激励太阳能制造，从而实现了110吉瓦的组件制造承诺。

与此同时，该报告称，《美国通胀削减法案》正在激励清洁能源投资的激增，到2024年，美国太阳能组件的制造能力将增长六倍，到本十年末，太阳能年装机量可能翻一番，达到40吉瓦～50吉瓦。

郝芬 译自 钻机地带

原文如下：

Solar Costs to Disrupt Global Energy Markets: Think-Tank

Costs for solar energy will halve before 2030, accelerating disruption in global energy markets while driving the energy transition, according to a new study by Climate Energy Finance (CEF), an Australia-based think tank.

In its “Solar Pivot” report, CEF forecasts record solar installation in 2023, with growth of 30 to 50 percent year over year. Total solar installation could reach 1,000 gigawatts (GW) per year by 2030, riding on the “dramatic expansion” of solar module supply chains globally and a return to solar cost deflation over the rest of this decade, the report said.

CEF said that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has “consistently underestimated the rate of solar deployments, the massive deflation of solar generation costs, and accordingly the disruption of the global fossil fuel industry”.

The “IEA World Energy Outlook 2022” report estimated 462 GW of annual solar installs to 2030 under its Net Zero by 2050 scenario. CEF projects that “there is likely to be manufacturing capacity for world installs of double this [number]”.

Investments in solar energy are “booming”, and the trend is accelerating in 2023, according to the report. For an increasing number of global markets, solar is the lowest cost source of new electricity generation, even without a price on carbon emissions, the report said.

Meanwhile, prices of polysilicon, a key raw material in solar modules, dropped two-thirds since December 2022 to just $11 per kilogram in June 2023, causing solar module prices to dip by a third from 2021 to 18 cents per watt in May 2023, the CEF report said. Global freight costs have also declined more than 80 percent since the peak at the end of 2021. CEF expects solar electricity costs to further drop 10 percent annually this decade, halving by 2030.

Solar Installation Trends

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) estimated the world installed a record 268 GW of solar in 2022, relative to the installed world solar module manufacturing capacity of 600 GW at the end of 2022, the CEF report noted. CEF forecasts that if most of the current announcements of solar manufacturing capacity expansions proceed, the capacity will double by 2024-2025. The majority of the expansion projects will be in the biggest country in Asia, but the USA, India, and the European Union (EU) will also see a planned expansion capacity of three to five times the current figures, the report said.

Solar energy has seen record rates of annual installation every year for a decade. The biggest country in Asia leads the world with a cumulative 414.5 GW of solar installed by 2022, followed by the EU at 209.3 GW, the USA at 141.6 GW, Japan at 84.9 GW, and India at 79.1 GW, the report said.

India will avoid building new coal power plants in the next five years as it targets to boost its use of renewables to generate electricity, according to the updated National Electricity Plan by the country’s Central Electricity Authority. The plan is seen as a step toward India’s target of raising the share of renewables in its energy mix by 2030, increasing its non-fossil fuel energy capacity to 500 gigawatts by 2030. As of April 2023, India had 125 GW of renewable energy installed, representing 30 percent of the country’s total installed capacity.

According to the report, India introduced a 40 percent solar module import duty and a Solar Performance linked Scheme (PLI) to incentivize solar manufacturing, leading to 110 GW of module manufacturing commitments.

Meanwhile, the USA Inflation Reduction Act is spurring a surge of clean energy investments, “with a sixfold expansion in US solar module manufacturing capacity by 2024 and a likely doubling of annual solar installs to 40 to 50 GW annually through to the end of this decade”, the report said.