巴西有望成为全球第四大石油生产国

巴西国家石油、天然气和生物燃料局(ANP)报告称，巴西的石油产量正在稳步增加，预计巴西将成为世界第四大石油生产国

巴西的巨大石油储量，特别是盐下石油储量，再加上勘探和钻井活动的增加，凸显了巴西大幅扩大石油产量的潜力

尽管担心政府干预和税收，但法国道达尔能源和挪威能源巨头Equinor等外国公司仍在巴西大举投资，表明巴西在全球石油行业的强势地位

据油价网2023年6月12日报道，近二十年来，南美洲最大的经济体巴西从2006年首次在海上超深水盐下岩层发现的大规模石油繁荣中获得了巨大的经济收益。后来巴西国家石油公司(巴西国油/Petrobras)背负了巨额债务，几乎被迫宣布破产，这一石油繁荣几乎崩溃。从那时起，工业改革和合理化再加上高油价，重振了巴西正在进行的大规模化石燃料热潮。有迹象表明，巴西正在成为全球第四大石油生产国，这将给巴西经济带来巨大的好处。

巴西碳氢化合物监管机构ANP公布的数据显示，今年4月，巴西平均每天生产310万桶石油。这个数字比前一个月增加近1%，比去年同期增加5%。今年4月巴西的碳氢化合物日总产量略高于400万桶油当量，比3月份增加1.1%，比去年同期增加4.4%。这些数字代表了在今年3月暴跌之后的温和复苏。这一增加表明巴西有潜力成为世界上最大的石油生产国，特别是预计到今年巴西的石油日产量将增加30万桶，到今年年底，石油日产量将达到340万桶。

去年，巴西的石油产量在全球排名第九，超过科威特，石油平均日产量略高于300万桶。假设这个拉丁美洲最大经济体将成为世界第四大石油生产国，在这种情况下，巴西将需要每天开采出450多万桶石油，以超过目前占据第一的加拿大。巴西能源部预计，到2029年前，巴西的石油日产量将达到540万桶，比去年的300万桶日产量高出80%。巴西碳氢化合物产量的持续逐年增加表明，巴西确实有潜力扩大石油产量，成为全球第四大石油生产国。

支持这些计划的另一个关键因素是巴西丰富的碳氢化合物储量。根据ANP公布的数据，截至去年年底，这个拉丁美洲最大的石油生产国已探明石油储量总计149亿桶，其中77%属于盐下石油储量。还有219亿桶探明和概算储量和270亿桶探明、概算和可能储量。这表明巴西拥有相当大的碳氢化合物潜力和支持石油产量大幅增加所需的储量。随着勘探和开发钻井活动的增加，这些储量将继续增加，贝克休斯公司公布的国际在用钻机数量显示，到今年5月底，巴西在用钻机数增加17部，而去年同期为11部。

石油产量的巨大飞跃将受到盐下石油产量扩大的推动，巴西能源部认为，巴西盐下石油产量最终将占巴西碳氢化合物总产量的80%，而目前这个数字约为77%。要实现这一目标，必须大幅增加产量，而这只有在能源投资和钻井活动大幅扩大的情况下才能实现。巴西能源部希望通过一项名为Potencializa勘探和生产计划来刺激这一增长趋势，这个计划的主要原则是鼓励对前沿、商业边际和成熟石油盆地进行投资。此外，巴西还在努力扩大陆上钻井的支出和活动，路透社指出，从现在到2029年，巴西中小型能源公司计划在陆上钻井业务上投资77亿美元。

尽管巴国油将是如此大规模增产的关键推手，该公司承诺在5年内投资780亿美元，但要实现这一目标，还需要外国能源巨头的大量投资和技术注入。这样做的原因很简单，碳氢化合物产量的大幅增加必须得到可采储量稳步增加和提高原油采收率技术的部署支持。其中包括小型能源公司计划到2029年前在巴西陆上油田投资77亿美元，这将扩大石油储量和产量。

今年1月，法国超级能源巨头道达尔能源批准了巴西桑托斯盆地Lapa southwest海上石油项目10亿美元的最终投资决定(FID)。道达尔能源公司是这个项目的运营商，持有45%的股份，其合作伙伴壳牌公司和另外一家公司分别持有30%和25%的股份。这个项目包括开发三口井，连接到Lapa油田浮式产油、储油和卸油 （FPSO）设施，该FPSO设施自2016年以来一直在Lapa油田西北部运营。预计在2025年投产后，这个FPSO设施将每天泵送2.5万桶石油，将油田日总产量提高到6万桶。

道达尔能源公司表示，这个项目与公司现有的巴西资产非常契合，将为公司的盐下石油生产提供关键的增长杠杆。道达尔能源公司勘探和生产高级副总裁David Mendelson表示：“这一最新发展是道达尔能源公司在巴西的一个重要里程碑，它将增加其在桑托斯盐下盆地的运营产量，这是公司的一个关键增长区域。”他接着说：“凭借其高效的工程方法和与现有设施的协同作用，这个项目体现了道达尔能源公司专注于低成本、低排放资产的战略。”

今年5月底，道达尔能源公司及其合作伙伴巴国油、卡塔尔能源公司和马来西亚国家石油公司共同签署了Agua Marinha海上区块的产量分成合同。Agua Marinha区块位于Marlim Sul盐下油田南部高产的坎波斯盆地，于去年12月开发合同被授予道达尔能源公司。据信，这个区块有可能复制巴国油在2017年Marlim Sul盐下石油发现的成功。道达尔能源公司勘探高级副总裁表示：“Agua Marinha区块的产量分成合同签署扩大了我们与三个战略合作伙伴在坎波斯盆地盐下这一充满希望地区的影响力，我们期待着探索这个区块并钻探Touro远景构造。”

今年5月初，挪威能源巨头Equinor宣布，它与合作伙伴马来西亚国家石油公司等一起批准了FID，以继续在巴西海上进行价值90亿美元的B-M-C-33项目的开发。此次作业包括3个盐下天然气和凝析油发现，可采储量为10亿桶油当量。预计在2028年启动后，这个项目每天将开采出5.65亿立方英尺天然气，其中估计88%将用于出口。运营方Equinor持有35%的开采权益，其余30%由马来西亚国家石油公司持有。

这些事件表明，巴西的海上投资仍然强劲。如前所述，外国能源巨头继续在巴西批准数十亿美元的项目，这将大大提高产量。即使巴国油的脱碳计划也不会对巴西石油生产和出口的增加产生什么影响，巴国油预计到2027年前其石油产量将增加19%。由于这些原因，巴西能源部设定的到2029年前每天开采出540万桶石油的宏伟目标似乎是可以实现的。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Brazil Gears Up To Become Fourth Largest Oil Producer

·     Brazil's National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) reports that the country's oil production is steadily increasing, projecting the country to become the world's fourth largest oil producer.

·     The country's large reserves, particularly pre-salt reserves, coupled with a rise in exploration and drilling activities, underscore the potential for significant production expansion.

·     Despite concerns over government intervention and taxation, foreign energy companies like TotalEnergies and Equinor continue to invest heavily in Brazil, signalling the country's strong position in the global oil industry.

For nearly two decades, South America’s largest economy Brazil has been reaping a tremendous economic windfall from a massive oil boom that kicked off with the first offshore ultra deep-water pre-salt discovery in 2006. The boom nearly collapsed saw national oil company Petrobras laden with so much debt it was almost forced to declare bankruptcy. Since then, industry reforms and rationalization coupled with higher oil prices had reinvigorated the massive fossil fuel boom underway in Brazil, although it nearly faltered for a brief moment . There are indications that Brazil, regardless of the naysayers, is on track to become the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, which will be a tremendous boon for the economy.

Data from Brazil’s hydrocarbon regulator, the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP – Portuguese initials), shows that for April 2023, the country pumped an average of 3.1 million barrels of oil per day. That number is almost 1% higher than a month earlier and 5% greater year over year. Total hydrocarbon output for April 2023 amounted to just over 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day which was 1.1% higher month over month and 4.4% greater than a year earlier. Those numbers represent a modest recovery after a March 2023 slump. That growth indicates Brazil possesses the potential to become the world’s largest oil producer, especially when it is anticipated the country 2023 will add 300,000 barrels per day, taking production to 3.4 million barrels daily by the end of the year. 

During 2022, Brazil was ranked ninth globally by oil production, ahead of Kuwait, lifting an average of just over 3 million barrels per day. Suppose Latin America’s largest economy is to become the world’s fourth-largest oil producer. In that case, it will need to be pumping more than 4.5 million barrels of crude oil per day so as to overtake Canada, which currently holds that spot. Brazil’s energy ministry expects the country will be pumping 5.4 million barrels daily by 2029, which is a whopping 80% higher than the 3 million barrels of oil lifted daily during 2022. Consistent year-over-year growth in hydrocarbon production indicates that Brazil indeed possesses the potential to expand production and become the world’s fourth-largest oil producer. 

Another key aspect that will support those plans is Brazil’s copious hydrocarbon reserves. According to the ANP, at the end of 2022, Latin America’s largest oil producer held proven or 1P petroleum reserves totaling 14.9 billion barrels, of which 77% were categorized as pre-salt. There are also 21.9 billion barrels of proven and possible or 2P reserves and 27 billion barrels of 3P reserves, known as proven possible and probable reserves. This illustrates that Brazil possesses considerable hydrocarbon potential and the reserves required to support a significant increase in oil production. Those reserves will keep growing as exploration and development drilling gains momentum, with the Baker Hughes International Rig Count showing 17 active rigs at the end of May 2023 compared to 11 a year earlier.

Such a massive leap in oil output will be driven by expanding pre-salt oil production, which Brazil’s energy ministry believes will eventually be responsible for 80% of the country’s hydrocarbon output compared to around 77% at this time. For that to occur, there must be a significant increase in production which can only occur if energy investment and drilling expand substantially. The energy ministry hopes to stimulate this through a plan called the Potencializa E&P programme, the main tenets of which are to encourage investment in frontier, commercially marginal and mature oil basins. There is also a push to expand spending and activity on onshore drilling in Brazil, with news agency Reuters pointing out that small to medium-sized energy companies planning to invest $7.7 billion in onshore operations between now and 2029.

While Brazil’s national oil company Petrobras will be the key driver of such a massive expansion of production volumes, committing to spending $78 billion over five years, it will take considerable investment and injections of technology from foreign energy majors to achieve that goal. The reasons for this are simple, such a significant expansion of hydrocarbon output must be supported by a solid increase in exploitable reserves and the deployment of enhanced recovery techniques. This includes plans by smaller energy companies to invest $7.7 billion in onshore oilfields in Brazil by 2029, which will broaden petroleum reserves and production.

In January 2023, French supermajor TotalEnergies approved the $1 billion final investment decision, or FID, for Lapa South-west offshore oil project in the Santo Basin, Brazil. TotalEnergies is the operator of the operation, holding a 45% working interest, with partners Shell controlling 30% and Repsol Sinopec the remaining 25%. The project consists of developing three wells to be connected to the Lapa FPSO, which has been operating in the North-west of the Lapa field since 2016. Upon start-up, which is anticipated for 2025, the facility will pump 25,000 barrels of oil per day, lifting overall field production to 60,000 barrels daily. 

According to TotalEnergies, the project is a natural fit for its existing Brazilian assets and will boost a key growth lever for the company's pre-salt oil production. TotalEnergies Exploration and Production Senior Vice President David Mendelson stated: “This latest development is an important milestone for TotalEnergies in Brazil that will increase its operated production in the pre-salt Santos Basin, a key growth area for the Company." He then went on to say: “With its efficient engineering approach and synergies with existing facilities, this project illustrates TotalEnergies’ strategy of focusing on low cost, low emissions assets.”

In late-May 2023, TotalEnergies, which holds a 39% interest, and its partners, Petrobras with 30% and QatarEnergy as well as PETRonAS with a 20% interest each, signed a production sharing contract for the offshore Agua Marinha Block. The block is located in the prolific Campos Basin south of the pre-salt Marlim Sul oilfield and was awarded to TotalEnergies in December 2022. It is believed that the block has the potential to mirror Petrobras’ success with the 2017 Marlim Sul pre-salt oil discovery. TotalEnergies Senior Vice President Exploration said: “The signature of the PSC for Agua Marinha expands our presence in this promising area of the pre-salt Campos Basin alongside our three strategic partners, and we are looking forward looking to exploring the block and drilling the Touro prospect.”  

In early May 2023, Norwegian energy supermajor Equinor announced that it, along with partners Petrobras had approved the FID to proceed with the $9 billion development of the B-M-C-33 project in offshore Brazil. The operation covers three pre-salt natural gas and condensate discoveries with recoverable reserves of one billion barrels of oil equivalent. On start-up, which is anticipated to occur in 2028, the operation will pump 565 million cubic feet of natural gas per day, of which, an estimated 88% will be exported. Equinor, which is the operator, holds a 35% working interest, with the remaining 30% held by Petrobras.

These events demonstrate that the investment in offshore Brazil remains strong， Indeed, while he irked energy majors with the March 2023 introduction of a 9.2% levy on oil exports for three months. As discussed, foreign energy supermajors are continuing to approve billion-dollar projects in the country, which will significantly boost production. Even Petrobras’ plans to decarbonize operations will have little impact on growing Brazil’s oil production and exports, with the company expecting its oil production to expand by 19% by 2027. For these reasons, the ambitious target set by Brazil’s energy ministry to be pumping 5.4 million barrels per day by 2029 appears achievable.