GHD最新研究结果显示能源危机冲击影响投资

据阿拉伯贸易网2023年6月7日迪拜报道，全球著名的国际化设计咨询公司GHD于6月7日发布的一项最新研究结果显示，过去3年席卷全球的能源危机，已经造成了一场完美的、多维度的全行业冲击风暴，其中包括严重削弱投资水平的资本紧缩。

“震惊”是迄今为止在能源行业领导者中开展的最大的全球民意调查结果之一，该调查显示，94%的能源行业领导者认为当前的能源危机是他们所在市场经历过的最严重危机。据能源行业的首席财务官们称，2020年至2022年期间的投资水平估计比预计削减金额少了2030亿美元。

极端的市场波动和地缘政治紧张局势使能源安全成为全球议程中的重要议题，四分之三的能源行业领导者表示，这是他们所在企业的最大担忧。

这种破坏对世界各地的经济和社区产生了重大影响，能源部门提供可靠、负担得起的低碳能源的社会压力从未像现在这样大。报告称，四分之三的能源行业领导者(74%)认为能源价格是目前通货膨胀的最大原因，76%的人认为能源危机正在降低全球的生活水平。

气候冲击继续迫使能源转型加速，但实现净零排放的进程正受到复杂动态因素影响。42%的受访者表示，目前的能源危机加快了受访者所在企业的净零排放计划，已经比平均提前了5年；而近一半的能源行业领导者(47%)表示，能源危机使他们的净零排放计划平均推迟了6年。

尽管这场能源危机可能阻碍了许多公司的净零战略，但由此引发的天然气价格波动推动了能源资产的多元化，70%的能源行业领导者报告称，过去12个月天然气价格的波动加速了他们企业对可再生能源发电资产的采用。

GHD负责英国、欧洲和中东的未来能源执行董事Tom Foley表示：“尽管阿联酋是全球著名的石油生产国，因此不太容易受到供应冲击的影响，但阿联酋已经认识到多元化的重要性，并大大加强了对能源转型项目的投资。我们的研究支持了这一点。该研究显示，当前的全球能源危机已促使61%的阿联酋能源公司加快投资，扩大其可再生能源组合。作为今年晚些时候即将举行的COP28的主办国，国际社会期望阿联酋坚持其净零排放的目标，并促进能源转型。”

随着GHD和全球能源行业领导者展望该行业的未来，令人震惊的报告确定了有助于降低能源转型风险的五个关键优先事项：

*释放资金和市场：为能源项目降低风险并释放资本流动，需要明智的规划、许可、政策和监管框架。

*增压改造解决方案：将经过深思熟虑的设计原则整合到新能源基础设施中，并对现有基础设施进行改造，对于帮助建立系统弹性至关重要。

*仔细平衡供应链和资源：成功的转型将需要获得新的原材料流、重新配置的供应链和学习新技能的劳动力。

*确保社区理解和社会公众接受：为关键项目赢得社会公众接受，需要宏观和社区层面的参与和教育。

*确保公正的过渡：无风险的过渡是公平、平衡和公正的过渡。转型的成本必须在国家之间和社区之间公平分摊，以确保不让任何一员掉队。

这项研究采用了两种核心研究方法：对450名高级能源行业决策者的定量意见研究和对行业思想领导者的10次定性访谈。这项研究集中在10个主要市场：澳大利亚、加拿大、智利、德国、新西兰、新加坡、菲律宾、阿联酋、英国和美国。 此外，还对巴西、埃及、印度和南非等国的能源行业领导人进行了额外采访。

李峻 编译自 阿拉伯贸易网

原文如下：

Energy crisis shocks impact investments: study

The energy crisis that has rocked the world over the past three years has created a perfect, multidimensional storm of sector-wide shocks including a capital crunch that has severely depleted investment levels, reveals a new research launched today by global professional services company GHD. 

Shocked, one of the largest global opinion research studies ever undertaken among energy sector leaders, reveals that 94 percent of energy leaders believe the current energy crisis is the most severe their market has ever experienced. And according to energy sector CFOs, investment levels between 2020 and 2022 were an estimated $203 billion lower than they otherwise would have been. 

Extreme market volatility and geopolitical tensions have put energy security high on the global agenda, with three-quarters of energy leaders reporting that this is the number one concern for their organisation. 

This disruption has had a significant impact on economies and communities around the world and societal pressure on the energy sector to provide reliable, affordable, low-carbon energy has never been greater. Three-quarters of energy leaders (74 per cent) believe energy prices are currently the biggest contributor to inflation, and 76 per cent say the energy crisis is reducing the standard of living across the globe, the report said.

The climate shock continues to force an acceleration of the energy transition, but progress towards net zero is being impacted by the complex dynamics at play. While 42 percent say the current energy crisis has accelerated their organisation’s net-zero plans – by an average of five years – almost half of energy leaders (47 percent) state that the crisis has decelerated their net-zero plans – by an average of six years. 

While the crisis may have put the brakes on net-zero strategies for many companies, the resulting volatility in natural gas prices has driven the diversification of energy assets, with 70 per cent of energy sector leaders reporting that the volatility in natural gas prices over the past 12 months has accelerated their business’s adoption of renewable energy generation assets.

Tom Foley, Executive Director (UK, Europe & Middle East) Future Energy at GHD, said: "Despite being a prominent global oil producer and thus less vulnerable to supply shocks, the UAE has recognised the importance of diversification and has significantly bolstered investments in energy transition projects. This is supported by our research, which has revealed that the prevailing global energy crisis has prompted 61 per cent of UAE energy companies to expedite their investments in expanding their renewable energy portfolio. As the upcoming host of COP28 later this year, there are international expectations on the nation to uphold its net zero aspirations and facilitate the energy transition.”

As GHD and global energy leaders look to the future of the industry, the Shocked report identifies five key priorities that will help de-risk the energy transition:

* Unlocking money and markets: De-risking and unlocking capital flows into energy projects will require smart planning, permitting, policy and regulatory frameworks.

* Supercharging engineered solutions: The integration of well-thoughtout design principles into new energy infrastructure and retrofitting of existing infrastructure will be critical to help build system resilince.

* Carefully balancing supply chains and resources: A successful transition will require access to new streams of raw materials, re-tooled supply chains and a (re)skilled workforce.

* Securing community understanding and social acceptance: Earning social acceptance for crucial projects will require engagement and education at both a macro and a community level.

* Ensuring a just transition: A de-risked transition is one that is fair, balanced and just. The cost of transition must be spread fairly between countries and across communities to ensure no one is left behind. 

Shocked study utilised two core research methods: quantitative opinion research among 450 senior energy sector decision-makers and 10 qualitative interviews with industry thought leaders. The study focused on 10 key markets: Australia, Canada, Chile, Germany, New Zealand, Singapore, the Philippines, the UAE, the UK and the USA. Additional interviews were conducted with leaders based in Brazil, Egypt, India and South Africa etc., it said.