据美国钻机地带网站2023年6月9日报道，麦格理集团全球石油和天然气市场分析师维卡斯·德维维迪和沃尔特·钱塞勒日前在发给钻机地带网站的一份新报告中宣布，在6月4日举行的欧佩克+会议之后，他们对石油市场仍然“短期看涨，但结构性看跌”。
分析师们在报告中表示：“我们仍然认为，炼油厂原油日加工量的大幅增加（350万至400万桶）、季节性之外机械工程电力消耗以及欧佩克+减产将在今年第三季度收紧原油市场平衡。”
分析师们补充说：“我们预计在今年第四季度和2024年将出现市场调整，原因是美国和北海的产量增长缓慢，欧佩克+不遵守减产协议，以及经济衰退影响导致的需求放缓。”
“在我们看来，石油市场面临的结构性挑战是石油产量增长放缓，我们认为这一特征将持续数年”。
麦格理集团分析师们在报告中指出，在美国，炼油商需要重质、含硫的原油“来平衡原油供应”，因为美国国内供应的大部分是轻质和低硫原油。
“因此，美国依赖从中东、墨西哥和南美进口重质、含硫原油，以最大限度提高炼油厂的利用率。”
“沙特阿拉伯7月份自愿削减100万桶原油日产量，这一减产协议有可能进一步压缩原油折扣并压缩炼油厂利润率。”
分析师们还在报告中强调，与衰退压力对需求的影响相关的宏观担忧，可能会限制欧佩克+干预支撑价格的能力。
分析师们在报告中表示：“需求是平衡中最不确定的关键部分，市场关注的是亚洲大国需求的增长。”
李峻 编译自 钻机地带 网站
原文如下：
Macquarie Group Reveals Oil Market Outlook
In a new report sent to Rigzone, Macquarie strategists Vikas Dwivedi and Walt Chancellor announced that they remain “short-term bullish but structurally bearish” on the oil market after last weekend’s OPEC+ meeting.
“We continue to believe the large, 3.5 to 4.0 million barrel per day increase in refinery runs, extra-seasonal ME power burn, and OPEC+ cuts will tighten direct crude balances through 3Q23,” the analysts stated in the report.
“From there, we expect a correction in 4Q23 and 2024 due to sweet production growth from the U.S. and N. Sea, OPEC+ non-compliance, and slowing demand due to recessionary effects,” they added.
“In our view, the structural challenge for the oil market is the ease of oil production growth, a feature we believe will persist for several years,” the analysts continued.
In the report, the Macquarie strategists outlined that, in the U.S., refiners need heavier, sour barrels “to balance the crude slate” as much of the domestic supply is light and sweet.
“Therefore, the U.S. relies on heavy, sour crude imports from the Middle East, Mexico, and South America to maximize the utilization of the refineries,” the analysts said.
“The extendable and reviewable one million barrel per day voluntary cut by Saudi for July has the potential to shrink … sour discounts and compress … refinery margins further,” they added.
The strategists also highlighted in the report that macro concerns associated with the impact of recessionary pressures on demand are potentially limiting the ability for OPEC+ intervention to support price.
“Demand is a key part of the balance that has the most uncertainty, with the market focusing on the demand growth of the biggest country in Asia,” the analysts said in the report.
“Currently, the IEA is attributing around 60 percent of 2023 global demand growth to the biggest country in Asia; in contrast we estimate it will contribute [around] 35 percent,” they added.
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