Rystad预计全球电池储能装机容量到2030年将超过400吉瓦时

挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司Rystad：到2030年前，全球电池储能装机容量将超过400吉瓦时

政府政策在激励投资和电池存储容量扩张方面发挥着重要作用

到2030年前，电池储能市场年安装量将达到110吉瓦，其中58%将在亚洲开发

据油价网2023年6月14日报道，电池储能应用的时代可能才刚刚开始，但随着储能成为世界能源格局的关键，未来几年每年的装机容量增加将像滚雪球一样。挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司Rystad的模型预测，到2030年前，每年的电池储能装机容量将超过400吉瓦时，相当于目前每年新增装机容量的10倍。

电池储能系统(BESS)是一种相互连接的电池配置，旨在存储多余电能并将其释放以满足即将到来的需求。因此，BESS为解决电力间歇性问题提供了切实可行的解决方案。随着世界向太阳能光伏和风能等更环保发电方式过渡，电池储能发展将成为满足未来能源需求的关键。

去年，全球BESS装机容量比前一年增加了60%，新安装总量超过43吉瓦时。今年将再增加74吉瓦时，增幅达72%，这主要是由于BESS的成本降低、北美的激励措施、欧洲的政府资助计划，以及亚洲大陆可再生能源产能的强劲扩张。

“假设目前的政策情景不变，我们预计到2030年前年安装总量将超过400吉瓦时，注意吉瓦时（GWh）指的是能源单位，而吉瓦(GW)是电力单位。这意味着到2030年前新增装机容量约为110吉瓦，几乎相当于法国和德国住宅用电量峰值的总和。这一预测总体上符合我们的气候变化情景，符合1.9摄氏度的碳预算。”  

Rystad储能分析师塞佩尔·索尔塔尼说：“电池将在未来能源生产和电力需求中发挥基础性作用，解决可再生能源发电的间歇性问题。为了减少对煤炭和天然气作为备用发电来源的依赖，各国现在必须投资BESS。”

政府政策在激励投资和扩大产能方面发挥着重要作用。去年美国的《通胀削减法案》促进了可再生能源和清洁技术的扩张，将太阳能和陆上风能的预期装机容量提高了40%，与该法案出台之前相比，预计将增加超过20吉瓦的电池容量。因此，到2030年前，美国电池容量将超过130吉瓦。

欧洲绿色交易工业计划旨在加速欧洲向可持续和低碳工业部门的转型，除了为BESS开发商提供当地资金外，还逐步支持BESS的发展——例如，英国有一个3200万英镑的储能资金计划。亚洲大国致力于到2030年前达到排放峰值，并将电池的发展视为实现这一目标的手段。未来几年，该国清洁能源发展将加速，可再生能源在其电力结构中的份额将增加。

需要强调的是，该国煤炭产能扩张的主要目标是解决能源安全问题，为国内电力行业提供足够的灵活性，以缓解未来的能源危机。因此，当装机容量的增加不能立即转化为发电量的增加时，就会出现这种情况。 自2010年以来，该国平均煤炭产能系数一直在稳步下降。与此同时，该国太阳能和电池生产能力已经成熟，预计将继续投资于本地供应链扩张，以满足国内需求，并在全球低碳能源价值链上发挥自身在出口市场上的作用。

到2030年前，BESS市场年装机量将达到110吉瓦，其中58%将在亚洲开发。北美将占约20吉瓦，欧洲将安装18吉瓦，其余8吉瓦来自世界其他地区。这是目前趋势的转变，因为预计到2023年底的装机量将由北美主导，北美将占BESS总装机容量的45%。

为了解决国家和地区电网的电力安全问题，需要公用事业规模的电池储能。微电网——自给自足的地方电网——将变得更加普遍，分布式发电将占据主导地位，因为太阳能和风能等初级能源并不局限于特定的国家或地区。

大部分新增产能将在公用事业层面，但住宅开发也至关重要。消费者电价将在短期内推动独立式BESS增长，住宅电池安装将随着屋顶太阳能光伏的采用而增长。拥有高效且价格合理太阳能生产的国家将成为衔接住宅电池系统的先驱。

住宅市场在全球范围内落后于公用事业领域，但我们预计这种情况将会改变。我们预计住宅采用将同步增长，并增加10倍，到2030年前将超过41吉瓦时的电池需求。欧洲人是在家中使用BESS的先驱，因为税收抵免和高峰时段的高电价激励了消费者。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Rystad Sees Major Jump In Battery Storage Capacity Through 2030

·     Rystad: Global battery storage installation capacity will surpass 400GWh by 2030.

·     Government policies are playing an important role in incentivizing investments and battery storage capacity expansion.

·     By 2030, annual Battery energy storage market installations will hit 110 GW, 58% of which will be developed in Asia.

The era of battery energy storage applications may just be beginning, but annual capacity additions will snowball in the coming years as storage becomes crucial to the world’s energy landscape. Rystad Energy modeling projects that annual battery storage installations will surpass 400 gigawatt-hours (GWh) by 2030, representing a ten-fold increase in current yearly additions. 

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are a configuration of interconnected batteries designed to store a surplus of electrical energy and release it for upcoming demand. Consequently, BESS offers practical solutions for addressing power intermittency challenges. As the world transitions to greener sources of power generation such as solar PV and wind, battery energy storage developments will be critical in meeting future energy demand. 

Global BESS capacity additions expanded 60% in 2022 over the previous year, with total new installations exceeding 43 GWh. A further 74 GWh will be added this year – a 72% increase – primarily driven by cost reduction in BESS systems in addition to incentives in North America, governmental funding programs in Europe, coupled with robust renewable capacity expansion in mainland of Asia.

Assuming a status-quo policy scenario, we project annual installations will surpass 400 GWh by 2030, noting that GWh refers to the energy units, while gigawatts (GW) is the unit of power. This correlates to capacity additions of about 110 GW by 2030 on a power basis, almost equivalent to the peak residential power consumption for France and Germany combined. This projection is generally aligned with our climate change scenario compliant with 1.9-degree Celsius carbon budget.

“Batteries will play a fundamental role in the future of energy production and power demand, solving the intermittency problem of renewable energy generation. To decrease reliance on coal and gas as back-up power generation sources, countries must invest in BESS now,” says Sepehr Soltani, energy storage analyst at Rystad Energy.

Government policies are playing an important role in incentivizing investments and capacity expansion. Last year’s US Inflation Reduction Act has catalyzed renewable and clean tech expansion, boosting expected solar and onshore wind capacity by 40% and expecting to add more than 20 GW battery capacity compared to before the Act. As result, the US battery capacity will exceed 130 GW by 2030.

The European Green Deal Industrial Plan aims to accelerate the transition to a sustainable and low-carbon industrial sector in Europe, and gradually supports the BESS development in addition to the local fundings for BESS developers – for example, a ￡32 million energy storage funding program in the UK.The biggest country in Asia is committed to peaking its emissions by 2030 and sees battery developments as a steppingstone to achieving that goal. The country’s clean energy development will accelerate in the coming years, increasing the share of renewables in its power mix. 

It is relevant to emphasize that The biggest country in Asia's coal capacity expansion primarily targets addressing energy security concerns providing the domestic power sector with sufficient flexibility to mitigate future energy crises. Hence, this is the case when an increase in capacity does not translate into immediate increase in generation. Average coal capacity factors in the biggest country in Asia have been declining steadily since 2010. Meanwhile, the country has matured its solar and battery production capacity and is expected to continue investing in local supply chain expansion to deliver on both domestic demand and the role it plays in the global export market across the low-carbon energy value chain.

By 2030, annual BESS market installation will hit 110 GW, 58% of which will be developed in Asia. North America will account for about 20 GW and Europe will have 18 GW installed, with the remaining 8 GW from the rest of the world. This is a shift from current trends, as the projected installation at the end of 2023 is expected to be dominated by North America, which will account for 45% of total BESS capacity.

Utility scale battery storage is required to address power security concerns in national and regional electricity grids. Microgrids – self-contained, local power grids – will become more prevalent and distributed power generation is set to dominate as primary energy sources such as solar and wind are not limited to specific countries or regions.

Most capacity additions will be at the utility level, but residential developments are also critical. Consumer power prices will drive standalone BESS growth in the short term, with residential battery installations set to grow alongside rooftop solar PV adoption. Countries with efficient and affordable solar energy production will emerge as pioneers in coupled-residential battery systems.

The residential market is lagging the utility segment globally, but we expect that to change. We expect residential adoption to grow in parallel and increase ten-fold, surpassing 41 GWh battery demand by 2030. Europeans are pioneers in utilizing BESS in their homes, as tax credits and high-power prices during peak periods have motivated consumers.