据油价网2023年6月14日报道，据财经网络Forexlive报道，摩根大通已将今年布伦特原油价格预期大幅下调至81美元/桶，低于其此前预期的90美元/桶。
早在今年2月，摩根大通就表示，除非重大地缘政治事件再次扰乱市场，否则布伦特原油价格预计不会在2023年达到100美元/桶。
这家华尔街银行在2月底表示，产能大国原油产量预计将在6月份恢复，而高价格水平将阻止美国回购原油以补充战略石油储备(SPR)，这是在美国银行业动荡以及欧佩克+成员国在4月初和6月初宣布的两次意外减产之前。
摩根大通最近下调了其对布伦特原油的预测，此前另一家主要银行高盛投资银行本周早些时候也下调了对布伦特原油价格的预测。
高盛投资银行已将布伦特原油年底油价预测下调至86美元/桶，低于此前预测的95美元/桶，因为它认为受制裁石油出口国的供应增加，抵消了近期欧佩克+和沙特阿拉伯的减产，而需求可能不尽如人意。
近几个月来，高盛投资银行分析师一直看好石油，预计今年下半年市场将吃紧。不到两周前，这家华尔街银行表示，在目前正在进行有史以来规模最大的大宗商品去库存之后，预计石油和大宗商品价格将出现反弹。但即使在当时，高盛投资银行的分析师也承认，今年迄今为止，他们的价格预测是错误的。
高盛投资银行分析师在6月11日的一份报告中写道：“尽管许多公司决定停止购买产能大国的原油，但在最初每天急剧下降150万桶之后，该国的原油供应几乎已完全恢复。”
“沙特阿拉伯的额外减产，以及我们对欧佩克+将在2024年将4月自愿减产时限延长的预期，可能只能部分抵消这些看跌冲击。”
由于市场等待美联储的利率决定和美国原油库存周报，6月14日早盘，布伦特原油交投于75美元/桶左右，当日小幅上涨。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
JP Morgan Slashes Oil Price Forecast To $81 This Year
JP Morgan has significantly reduced its forecast for Brent Crude prices for this year to $81 per barrel, down from $90 a barrel expected earlier, Forexlive reports.
As early as February this year, JP Morgan said that Brent Crude prices were not expected to reach $100 per barrel in 2023 unless a major geopolitical event rattles markets again.
The largger producer crude oil production is expected to recover by June, while high price levels would prevent the U.S. from repurchasing crude to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the Wall Street bank said at the end of February before the banking turmoil in the U.S. and the two surprise cuts from OPEC+ members announced in early April and early June.
JP Morgan’s latest cut in its Brent Crude forecast follows a cut by another major bank, Goldman Sachs, earlier this week.
Goldman Sachs has slashed its year-end oil price forecast to $86 per barrel for Brent, down from a previous projection of $95, as it sees higher supply from sanctioned oil exporters offsetting the recent OPEC+ and Saudi cuts amid potentially underwhelming demand.
Goldman analysts have been bullish on oil in recent months, expecting tight markets in the second half of the year. Less than two weeks ago, the Wall Street bank said it expects a rally in oil and commodities, after the biggest-ever destocking in commodities that is currently underway. But even back then, Goldman’s analysts acknowledged their price calls had been wrong so far this year.
“After an initial sharp 1.5 million barrels per day drop, the largger producer's supply has nearly fully recovered despite the decision by many companies to stop buying its barrels,” Goldman’s analysts wrote in a June 11 note.
“The extra Saudi cut and our expectation that OPEC+ will extend half of its April voluntary cut in 2024 will likely only partly offset these bearish shocks.”
Early on Wednesday, Brent prices were trading at around $75 per barrel, slightly up on the day as the market awaits Fed’s rate decision and the weekly report on U.S. oil inventories.
免责声明：本网转载自其它媒体的文章及图片，目的在于弘扬石化精神，传递更多石化信息，宣传国家石化产业政策，展示国家石化产业形象，参与国际石化产业舆论竞争，提高国际石化产业话语权，并不代表本网赞同其观点和对其真实性负责，在此我们谨向原作者和原媒体致以崇高敬意。如果您认为本站文章及图片侵犯了您的版权，请与我们联系，我们将第一时间删除。
